EPAC: INVEST 91E

[cycloneye]

EP, 91, 2016052918, , BEST, 0, 86N, 1084W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 91, 2016053000, , BEST, 0, 86N, 1087W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 91, 2016053006, , BEST, 0, 86N, 1090W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 91, 2016053012, , BEST, 0, 86N, 1093W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 91, 2016053018, , BEST, 0, 87N, 1096W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 975 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized today.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week as the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

GFS ensembles and ECMWF are rapidly coming into agreement the 10/70 will develop several hundred miles off the coast of Mexico in 4-5 days time frame.

[Kingarabian]

GFS ensembles and ECMWF are rapidly coming into agreement the 10/70 will develop several hundred miles off the coast of Mexico in 4-5 days time frame.

I have a feeling that it will be stronger than what the OP GFS and Euro models are showing. That said, it's typically too early in the season to have development this far west.

[cycloneye]

First run by the intensity guidance and they are bullish.

[cycloneye]

Low shear ahead.

Code: Select all

                 * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP912016  05/30/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    24    27    30    40    51    60    67    70    72    74    74
V (KT) LAND       20    22    24    27    30    40    51    60    67    70    72    74    74
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    21    22    22    25    28    33    39    45    50    56    62
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11    10    11    11    14     8     8     7     5     6     5     4     9
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     3     0     0    -2    -2     3     3     3     3     3     4     5     0
SHEAR DIR        102   113   114   122   121    91    84    89    53    47    59    68    47
SST (C)         29.6  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.6  29.7  29.8  29.8  29.8  29.8  29.6  29.5
POT. INT. (KT)   159   158   158   158   158   158   160   162   161   162   162   159   158
200 MB T (C)   -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     6     7     7     8     8     7     7     6     6     6     6
700-500 MB RH     65    69    71    70    68    64    64    66    66    64    65    64    61
MODEL VTX (KT)     0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR     1    22    25    22    21    28    14    19    30    26    28    34    34
200 MB DIV        18    29    34    27    48    93   100    97    64    51    11    28    37
700-850 TADV       3     2     2     1     0     0     0     1     0     0     0     0     0
LAND (KM)       1263  1282  1304  1345  1389  1462  1541  1675  1795  1932  2048  2100  2119
LAT (DEG N)      8.7   8.8   8.9   8.9   8.8   8.6   8.3   7.7   7.2   6.7   6.5   6.6   7.0
LONG(DEG W)    109.6 110.1 110.6 111.3 111.9 112.8 113.6 114.8 115.9 117.2 118.7 119.9 120.9
STM SPEED (KT)     6     5     6     6     6     4     5     7     6     7     6     6     5
HEAT CONTENT      63    65    68    73    79    84    78    54    29    23    23    22    23

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/  6      CX,CY:  -5/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  591  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            9.8

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   6.  14.  22.  29.  33.  35.  37.  37.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   1.   2.   2.   4.   7.   9.  11.  12.  13.  14.  14.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   7.  10.  20.  31.  41.  47.  50.  52.  54.  54.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:    8.7   109.6

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST     05/30/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   138.2      40.3  to  144.5       0.94         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    69.6       0.0  to   75.9       0.92         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    18.0      38.9  to    2.1       0.57         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    11.6      18.9  to    1.4       0.42         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.00         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    31.2     -11.0  to  135.3       0.29         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    57.4     638.0  to  -68.2       0.82         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  9999.0       2.1  to   -1.7     999.00         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%    5.3%    2.8%    0.8%    0.2%    1.5%    3.7%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST     05/30/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

Low shear + high SST's. I think the GFS and the Euro are having a hard time processing its interaction with the low to its west.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS ensembles and ECMWF are rapidly coming into agreement the 10/70 will develop several hundred miles off the coast of Mexico in 4-5 days time frame.

I have a feeling that it will be stronger than what the OP GFS and Euro models are showing. That said, it's typically too early in the season to have development this far west.

This storms is at a low latitude so we'll see and those can be very fickle. Nevertheless, if the system can developed a well-defined low-level center fairly quickly, this could become a hurricane quite easily.

[cycloneye]

91E is slowly organizing.

[TheStormExpert]

91E for sure should steal the thunder from anything that attempts to get going on the Atlantic side in the Western Caribbean.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF ensembles seem to have backed off in intensity and show a short lived TC lasting from days 3-6. CFS ensembles hit at a possible hurricane, however.

[Kingarabian]

91E is slowly organizing.

I'd go with 30%/80%.

[cycloneye]

Is possible that this system overperforms the models intensity.

[Yellow Evan]

91E for sure should steal the thunder from anything that attempts to get going on the Atlantic side in the Western Caribbean.

Given that all global models bring this due west now, I doubt this system steals any thunder. The system behind it that a few EPS ensemble members show may do such, or it may help fuel a possible system in the West Carribean after crossing over.

[Kingarabian]

GFS back to making this a hurricane, showing a strong Cat.2.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has a southern clipper which for a La nina year is quite unrealistic, especially in mid-June and then intensifying into a hurricane after rounding a subtropical ridge and subsequently getting blasted by the SSW shear.

Given historic trends, I'd expect the GFS and ECMWF to shift west as times goes on.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a southern clipper which for a La nina year is quite unrealistic, especially in mid-June and then intensifying into a hurricane after rounding a subtropical ridge and subsequently getting blasted by the SSW shear.

Given historic trends, I'd expect the GFS and ECMWF to shift west as times goes on.

Super long range but the 18z GFS has a basin crosser in June...

Waters in the CPAC above the equator are warmer than average but it's still early.

In the short term though, 91E shouldn'thave a problem attaining TS status.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located about 950 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form later this week as the
disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[stormwise]

looks better than Bonnie did when it was first upgraded.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks much better now let's see if it can hold and develop a well-defined center, which appeared to be very broad earlier and it's too soon to tell if it's consolidated or not.