ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

This is the wave SW of the CV Islands.

[TheStormExpert]

Expect a mention in the TWO @ 2pm for sure!

[Siker]

A tropical wave located about 300 miles southwest of Cabo Verde
Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this disturbance over the next several days
while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[TheStormExpert]

Looking good!

[Nimbus]

Another one rolling around down in that moist ITCZ.

[TheStormExpert]

Another one rolling around down in that moist ITCZ.

Probably why the GFS is so bullish on development now is because it stays mostly attached to the ITCZ up until the Lesser Antilles, that also means 99L will miss the SAL to it's north.

[AutoPenalti]

This may very well be the one to watch.

[xcool22]

GFS maybe overdoing the troughines imo
Lots of uncertainty that far out yep


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Hammy]

Looks badly elongated, and any surface feature is likely around 22-23W so they've initialized it too far west as they did with pre-Fiona. And wasn't this the same wave the Euro had as a strengthening system headed towards the Caribbean only to drop after a few days?

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/766328441759203329

[Alyono]

it's around 26 on visible

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

Tropical wave in east Tropical Atlantic is along 26W/27W from
11N-20N moving 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb Global models troughing and
is along the leading edge of a surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated showers or
deep convection.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF shows this getting buried into South America it appears and develops the wave behind this wave.

[TheStormExpert]

ECMWF shows this getting buried into South America it appears and develops the wave behind this wave.

The Euro has consistently preferred that wave for some reason when the GFS has preferred this wave more. Which one is right?

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF shows this getting buried into South America it appears and develops the wave behind this wave.

The Euro has consistently preferred that wave for some reason when the GFS has preferred this wave more. Which one is right?

I tend to agree with the ECMWF most of the time but IDK here though.

[TheStormExpert]

ECMWF shows this getting buried into South America it appears and develops the wave behind this wave.

The Euro has consistently preferred that wave for some reason when the GFS has preferred this wave more. Which one is right?

I tend to agree with the ECMWF most of the time but IDK here though.

Yeah it's going to be interesting to see which one manages to get it right, I tend to lean towards the Euro too after all the phantom storms the GFS has pulled in previous years.

[Hammy]

The Euro has consistently preferred that wave for some reason when the GFS has preferred this wave more. Which one is right?

I tend to agree with the ECMWF most of the time but IDK here though.

Yeah it's going to be interesting to see which one manages to get it right, I tend to lean towards the Euro too after all the phantom storms the GFS has pulled in previous years.

I'm going to go with the Euro, it tends to be more accurate than the GFS once there is some incipient system there--GFS likes to explode everything this time of year (and often misses actual stronger systems that form.)

[Hurricaneman]

I personally think this has the look of a future strong tropical cyclone but looks can be deceiving but this has the ITCZ to feed off of which is a positive that Fiona doesn't have

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Weatherboy1]

Welcome to the heart of the season, eh? Will be interesting to see if this becomes something other than a recurve like Fiona. Certainly an early read of the models suggests that to be the case

[SFLcane]

Looks vigorous on satellite nice structure. Could be the real deal. Maybe lol