ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

We were later than last year on the first one, but I doubt we'll have to wait until October for a second this time.

[Blinhart]

We were later than last year on the first one, but I doubt we'll have to wait until October for a second this time.

I don't think we will have to wait for the end of September for our 3rd or 4th.

[CrazyC83]

We were later than last year on the first one, but I doubt we'll have to wait until October for a second this time.

I don't think we will have to wait for the end of September for our 3rd or 4th.

We may have our 3rd by Labor Day if the most aggressive models are accurate.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2016 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 30:32:06 N Lon : 55:08:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.7mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -65.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 1018mb

Satellite Name : GOES13

With the black ring completely around the eye now, I would say it is a T6.0. Based on all the data, 110 kt would be my best guess.

[Yellow Evan]

Given the well organized CDO and circular eye, Dvorak is probably underestimating this.

[CrazyC83]

Given the well organized CDO and circular eye, Dvorak is probably underestimating this.

Maybe it could reach Cat 4?

[Ntxw]

Very picturesque storm now. Colder cloud tops or warmer eye could mean cat 4

[Hammy]

Very picturesque storm now. Colder cloud tops or warmer eye could mean cat 4

How long does this have until upwelling starts inhibiting development? It would be nice to get a Cat 4 in August for the first time since 2010.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 105kts.

AL, 07, 2016082900, , BEST, 0, 306N, 552W, 105, 957, HU

[cycloneye]

This is what we expected from the beginning. Let's see how many ACE units it gets when all is set and done.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/770060882831372289

[Ntxw]

How long does this have until upwelling starts inhibiting development? It would be nice to get a Cat 4 in August for the first time since 2010.

I think it will be fine for now. Will speed up more when it makes the N/NE turn, it'll be close if it can hit cat 4. If anything the eye is a bit ragged still so that would be a first issue before any kind of upwelling.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2016 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 30:32:55 N Lon : 55:02:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.5mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +0.0C Cloud Region Temp : -65.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[CrazyC83]

TXNT24 KNES 290043
TCSNTL

A. 07L (GASTON)

B. 28/2345Z

C. 30.6N

D. 55.2W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT=5.5
WITH A +0.5 ADJUSTMENT. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[tatertawt24]

Very picturesque storm now. Colder cloud tops or warmer eye could mean cat 4

[im g]http://i68.tinypic.com/9zmu0w.gif[/img]

How long does this have until upwelling starts inhibiting development? It would be nice to get a Cat 4 in August for the first time since 2010.

Looks like dry air working its way into the western side in the last few frames of that animation though.

[tolakram]

Looks like dry air working its way into the western side in the last few frames of that animation though.

I don't think so. Live IR loop show sit building an intense solid band of convection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=30&lon=-54&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=none

alternate color
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=30&lon=-54&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir5.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=none

[cycloneye]

Wow is my expression.

[AutoPenalti]

Can anyone tell me what ACE units are? I keep hearing of them but I don't really know what they are.

[Kingarabian]

Wow is my expression.

[img]http://oi68.tinypic.com/xepe11.jpg[/mg]

Cycloneye, finally a worthy Atlantic storm.

[Kingarabian]

Can anyone tell me what ACE units are? I keep hearing of them but I don't really know what they are.

Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a measure used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to express the activity of individual tropical cyclones and entire tropical cyclone seasons, particularly the North Atlantic hurricane season. It uses an approximation of the wind energy used by a tropical system over its lifetime and is calculated every six-hour period.

[bob rulz]

Basically, it's a unit measuring the combination of intensity and duration of a storm, based off of official NHC advisories. So storms that maintain a high intensity for a long amount of time get the highest ACE indexes - Ivan is the Atlantic basin ACE record-holder since reliable records began iirc.

[gatorcane]

wow nice looking hurricane - and better yet a MAJOR impacting nobody but the fish.