CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

looks to be about 95 kts

[Blown Away]

looks to be about 95 kts

Current track likely brings N eyewall onto the S coast of Big Island...

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[CrazyC83]

000
URPN12 KNHC 301805
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP142016
A. 30/17:35:40Z
B. 19 deg 14 min N
148 deg 42 min W
C. 700 mb 2867 m
D. 94 kt
E. 328 deg 7 nm
F. 054 deg 90 kt
G. 328 deg 7 nm
H. 974 mb
I. 10 C / 3057 m
J. 18 C / 3048 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E15/12/8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0114E MADELINE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 90 KT 328 / 7 NM 17:33:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 105 / 14 KT
;

[CrazyC83]

I would agree with about 95 kt. The 110 and 102 SFMR readings seem a bit off given the FL winds in the vicinity. Pressure is 973 right now.

[CrazyC83]

Throw out this run you think?

nah. The heading is solid. However, it will be a LOT more intense than it is forecasting

It's better a TS warning be issued and a Hurricane warning tomorrow. Because the Euro, CMC, and the GFDL all have the Big Island under the gun.

The CPHC can't split warnings, correct? Since a Hurricane Warning IMO is justified for the southern coast of the Big Island but not elsewhere. It seems they only issue them for entire counties.

[Yellow Evan]

000
URPN12 KNHC 302000
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP142016
A. 30/19:17:10Z
B. 19 deg 14 min N
149 deg 00 min W
C. 700 mb 2868 m
D. 115 kt
E. 040 deg 5 nm
F. 130 deg 100 kt
G. 042 deg 6 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 10 C / 3048 m
J. 14 C / 3041 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. RAGGED
M. C10
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0114E MADELINE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 100 KT 042 / 6 NM 19:15:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 155 / 12 KT
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 210 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
EYEWALL FRAGMENTED APPEARANCE, NOT ACTUALLY CIRCULAR
PEAK TEMP WAS NEAR EYEWALL
;

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 30 2016

The satellite presentation of Madeline showed a brief improvement
this morning but has since degraded in the presence of increasing
vertical wind shear. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft has made
several helpful passes through the hurricane this morning. Maximum
flight level winds of 100 kt were recorded in the northeast
quadrant, though a peak SFMR observation of 115 kt was reported.
Meanwhile, Dvorak current intensity estimates ranged from 6.0/115 kt
at HFO to 5.0/90 kt out of JTWC and SAB, while all agencies
produced a Final T of 5.0/90 kt. Given the minimum pressure reports
from the aircraft and the range of the data, the current intensity
is lowered to 100 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/09 kt. Madeline is
moving westward along the southern edge of a low to mid level
ridge, while a shallow upper level trough continues to dig toward
the hurricane from the northwest. The ridge will keep Madeline on
a westward-moving track today, followed by a gradual turn toward
the west-southwest tonight and Wednesday as the ridge to the
north builds and the upper level trough imparts northerly winds in
the high levels of the cyclone. This track will take the center
of Madeline dangerously close to the Big Island of Hawaii
late Wednesday and Thursday. Given its close approach and
uncertainty in the track forecast, a Hurricane Warning has been
issued for the Big Island of Hawaii. Late Thursday and Friday
Madeline is forecast to turn back toward the west-northwest as the
upper level trough digs southward over Hawaii. The forecast track is
essentially an update of the prior advisory and is slightly north of
the middle of the guidance envelope. The notable northern outlier
continues to be the GFDL.

As the upper level trough digs southward, vertical wind shear
is expected to induce slow weakening of Madeline through the
next five days. UW CIMSS estimates current vertical wind shear from
the west-southwest at 13 kt, and SHIPS forecasts shear to gradually
increase during the next 24 to 36 hours. The intensity forecast is
similar to the prior advisory package, and the rate of weakening is
slightly slower than IVCN. It is worth noting that SHIPS weakens
the system at a faster rate. Although it will be weakening, Madeline
is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near the
Big Island of Hawaii late Wednesday into early Thursday.

Users are reminded to not focus too closely on the exact forecast
track, as small changes can lead to differences in impacts and that
hazards associated with hurricanes can extend well away from the
center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 19.3N 149.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 19.2N 150.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 18.9N 152.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 18.6N 154.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 18.2N 157.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 18.3N 161.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.8N 167.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 19.5N 172.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe

[Kingarabian]

nah. The heading is solid. However, it will be a LOT more intense than it is forecasting

It's better a TS warning be issued and a Hurricane warning tomorrow. Because the Euro, CMC, and the GFDL all have the Big Island under the gun.

The CPHC can't split warnings, correct? Since a Hurricane Warning IMO is justified for the southern coast of the Big Island but not elsewhere. It seems they only issue them for entire counties.

Correct. They went with a hurricane warning for the Big Island.

[tolakram]

Live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-150&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

[Yellow Evan]

Unlike Lester, this seems to be falling off sooner than I thought.

[bg1]

Live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-150&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

It looks as it just collapsed in the past few hours to me.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 14, 2016083100, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1498W, 90, 974, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 60, 30, 110, 1012, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MADELINE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 14, 2016083100, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1498W, 90, 974, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 30, 1012, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MADELINE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 14, 2016083100, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1498W, 90, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 20, 1012, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MADELINE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,

[Yellow Evan]

Revised up to 95.

EP, 14, 2016083100, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1498W, 95, 972, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 60, 30, 110, 1012, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MADELINE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 14, 2016083100, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1498W, 95, 972, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 30, 1012, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MADELINE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 14, 2016083100, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1498W, 95, 972, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 20, 1012, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MADELINE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/770794627074920451

[Ntxw]

Nervous times for Hawaii

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
500 PM HST TUE AUG 30 2016

Under the presence of continued vertical wind shear, the satellite
presentation of Madeline has continued to gradually degrade today,
as an eye is no longer present. While Dvorak final T numbers
continue to drop, current intensity estimates range from 5.5/102 kt
at HFO to 5.0/90 kt out of JTWC and SAB, and CIMSS ADT has fallen
below 80 kt. Since Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported
stronger than expected winds earlier in the day, the current
intensity will be set at 95 kt for this advisory. The Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft will fly another mission in Madeline this
evening.

The initial motion for this advisory remains due west at 270/09 kt.
Madeline continues to move westward along the southern edge of a low
to mid level ridge, while a shallow upper level trough continues to
dig toward the hurricane from the northwest. The ridge will keep
Madeline on a westward-moving track into the evening, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west-southwest tonight and Wednesday as the
mid level ridge strengthens to the north and northwest and the upper
level trough imparts northwesterly winds in the high levels of the
cyclone. This track will take the center of Madeline dangerously
close to the Big Island of Hawaii (Hawaii County) late Wednesday
into Thursday, and a Hurricane Warning remains in place for the Big
Island, given the very close approach of Madeline and uncertainty in
the track forecast. On Friday Madeline is forecast to turn back
toward the west as the upper level trough digs southward over
Hawaii. The official forecast track has changed little from the
prior advisory and is near TVCN, which lies in the middle of a
rather tightly clustered reliable guidance envelope during the next
three days. The guidance envelope spreads beyond day three, while
the GFDL remains the northern outlier through the entire forecast
duration.

Madeline is expected to gradually weaken through the next four days
as the upper level trough digs southward and continues to impart
vertical wind shear. UW CIMSS estimates current vertical wind shear
from the west-southwest at 14 kt, and SHIPS forecasts shear to
gradually increase during the next 24 to 36 hours before relaxing
on Friday. The official intensity forecast calls for gradual
weakening during this time that follows the trends of SHIPS and
IVCN, though at a slightly slower rate of weakening than the
guidance through Friday. Although it will be weakening, Madeline is
expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near the Big
Island of Hawaii late Wednesday into early Thursday.

We would like to remind everyone that hazards associated with
hurricanes can extend well away from the center, and you should
not focus too closely on the exact forecast track, as small changes
can lead to differences in impacts.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 19.3N 150.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 19.1N 151.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 18.7N 153.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 18.3N 155.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.1N 157.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 18.2N 162.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 18.7N 168.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 19.0N 173.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe

[Alyono]

URPN15 KNHC 310355
AF309 0214E MADELINE HDOB 15 20160831
034600 2027N 15214W 6969 03190 0113 +080 +077 069031 031 027 000 00
034630 2025N 15213W 6970 03193 0115 +078 //// 066031 031 025 000 01
034700 2024N 15212W 6970 03191 0114 +080 +079 066031 031 025 001 01
034730 2023N 15211W 6971 03191 0111 +082 +073 068031 032 025 000 00
034800 2022N 15209W 6969 03193 0107 +086 +062 069032 034 024 001 00
034830 2021N 15208W 6969 03191 0103 +087 +068 071036 037 023 001 03
034900 2020N 15207W 6969 03189 0104 +084 +077 070037 037 024 000 00
034930 2019N 15206W 6969 03189 0105 +082 +077 070037 038 025 001 00
035000 2017N 15204W 6969 03187 0103 +083 +073 068036 038 025 001 00
035030 2016N 15203W 6970 03184 0103 +083 +068 068036 036 024 000 00
035100 2015N 15202W 6967 03182 0093 +085 +064 067036 037 023 001 00
035130 2014N 15201W 6970 03182 0094 +087 +064 066037 037 023 001 00
035200 2013N 15159W 6970 03185 0100 +085 +064 067037 037 025 000 00
035230 2012N 15158W 6969 03185 0097 +088 +054 065038 039 025 000 00
035300 2011N 15157W 6969 03184 0096 +089 +058 062038 039 024 000 00
035330 2009N 15156W 6970 03183 0094 +090 +055 060038 039 022 001 00
035400 2008N 15154W 6969 03184 0094 +090 +051 059037 038 025 001 00
035430 2007N 15153W 6970 03185 0090 +093 +053 060034 036 023 001 00
035500 2006N 15152W 6968 03184 0088 +095 +054 062034 034 024 001 00
035530 2005N 15151W 6971 03178 0089 +092 +055 065035 035 025 001 00

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 310405
AF309 0214E MADELINE HDOB 16 20160831
035600 2004N 15149W 6970 03180 0088 +090 +060 063034 034 025 001 00
035630 2002N 15148W 6970 03178 0088 +090 +061 061035 035 027 002 00
035700 2001N 15147W 6969 03178 0084 +092 +063 062032 034 026 001 00
035730 2000N 15145W 6970 03176 0077 +097 +064 062032 033 026 001 00
035800 1959N 15144W 6970 03176 0078 +095 +066 058032 033 026 001 00
035830 1958N 15143W 6968 03177 0077 +094 +071 058033 035 026 001 00
035900 1956N 15142W 6969 03173 0073 +095 +071 059035 036 024 001 00
035930 1955N 15140W 6970 03174 0076 +094 +070 056036 036 025 000 00
040000 1954N 15139W 6970 03172 0074 +093 +078 054038 039 026 001 00
040030 1953N 15138W 6967 03176 0077 +090 +087 055041 043 024 000 01
040100 1952N 15137W 6970 03169 0070 +094 +086 055042 044 024 000 00
040130 1951N 15135W 6970 03169 0063 +100 +080 055040 041 024 001 00
040200 1949N 15134W 6970 03167 0060 +100 +075 052039 040 023 001 00
040230 1948N 15133W 6971 03163 0053 +105 +069 052036 038 024 000 00
040300 1947N 15131W 6968 03167 0049 +110 +062 051033 033 024 000 00
040330 1946N 15130W 6970 03166 0053 +106 +060 051034 034 026 001 00
040400 1944N 15129W 6971 03165 0051 +109 +054 055033 034 030 000 00
040430 1943N 15127W 6970 03165 0043 +113 +056 053032 033 030 000 00
040500 1942N 15126W 6968 03162 0039 +112 +062 052033 033 031 000 00
040530 1941N 15125W 6970 03160 0042 +110 +060 053034 035 028 001 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]