ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[GCANE]

I noticed an interesting correlation. CMC has the surface low starting to spin up at about 108 hrs in the Mid Carib and at the same time and location GFS is developing a opportune PV area. It looks like the two features coincide and track west through the Yucatan Channel.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the GFS and the Euro makes me think that they are both anticipating the break neck forward speed to continue and that is what leads it not to develop. At its current pace I have a hard time seeing it being able to consolidate.

[cycloneye]

It looks like a Caribbean cruiser.

[Nimbus]

The CMC has dropped its track south from the earlier Miami landfall. I doubt 92L will play dead all the way to Mexico but that seems to be the landfall range Mexico to Miami.

[AutoPenalti]

Well, Miami ain't happening, but a Wilma-esque track is possible.

[StormHunter72]

Well, Miami ain't happening, but a Wilma-esque track is possible.

that is bold

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET with weak development as it moves across the Caribbean

[canefan]

GEM (Canadian) model 9 days out...

[toad strangler]

0z GFS still POOFS 92L right before the Leewards and leaves just a trace of vorticity heading into the Caribbean

[toad strangler]

0z Euro lock step with 0z GFS. Spits out weak sauce post Leewards

[gatorcane]

00Z UKMET continues with some weak development as it goes through the Lesser Antilles:

[northjaxpro]

EURO and GFS shows the shear machine in full of force in the Caribbean down the road. Could be very tough road.ahead for 92L

[cycloneye]

[GeneratorPower]

Could easily go north or south of Hispaniola

[perk]

EURO and GFS shows the shear machine in full of force in the Caribbean down the road. Could be very tough road.ahead for 92L

The NHC did not mention any problems with shear in their latest two and they normally do if shear is in the forecast ahead of a system they are monitoring.

[otowntiger]

"Could easily go north or south of Hispaniola"

Or right over it, significantly limiting development or shredding it if there is any development prior to it arrival. It's like threading the needle.

[SoupBone]

Could easily go north or south of Hispaniola

Or crash right into it and get shredded. Yeah. let's go with that.

[CrazyC83]

Well, Miami ain't happening, but a Wilma-esque track is possible.

A Wilma-esque track in mid-September? The most similar storm to Wilma (Mitch) was even later in the year.

[cycloneye]

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, literally right over the shredder.