ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

We will have to watch very carefully TD 6. As many of us know, small cyclones like this one can and does have the potential to intensify, in some instances quite dramatically. I am not saying for sure this will happen, but any system like this one can pull a surprise, especially with this being in the GOM.

[otowntiger]

I'm curious how this happened with all the screaming shear we've been hearing about in this area?

[northjaxpro]

I'm curious how this happened with all the screaming shear we've been hearing about in this area?

Well, it is a small cyclone. I have seen this happen on numerous occasions when you can get small scaled tropical cyclones develop, even in the face of shear and dry air. The most recent example was Danny in 2015. It not only survived hostile conditions, but intensified into a major Cat 3 tropical cyclone out in the Tropical Atlantic. Danny was as small as a cyclone can be for sure.

Small scaled cyclones can be destroyed obviously by hostile shear, but every once in a while, they can survive and develop.

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 83.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from the Anclote River southward to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Englewood Florida

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tropical Depression Six Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Radar imagery from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D indicates that shower
and thunderstorm activity associated with the small low pressure
area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico have persisted and become
better organized overnight. Earlier ASCAT data showed that the
system has a well-defined circulation and winds of at least 30 kt
over a small area to the north and northwest of the center. Based on
these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical
depression. The depression is currently embedded within an area of
moderate to strong northwesterly shear. Although the upper-level
winds could become a little more favorable for strengthening, the
depression is expected to move inland over the west-central Florida
peninsula later today, and no significant change in wind speed is
predicted. After the depression moves over the western Atlantic,
increasing westerly shear is forecast to prevent intensification.
This scenario is in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models, which
show the system weakening and likely dissipating in 3 to 4 days, or
perhaps sooner.

The depression is moving eastward at about 7 kt. The cyclone is
embedded within the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that
extends southwestward along the U.S. east coast. This pattern should
steer the system eastward today, then northeastward with some
increase in forward speed through dissipation. The track guidance is
in relatively good agreement on this scenario, although there are
some differences in how fast the system will accelerate
northeastward. For now, the NHC forecast lies between the faster
HWRF and GFS solutions, and the slower ECMWF.

The primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next
couple of days. Due to the uncertainty in the intensity forecast, a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the west-
central coast of Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1000Z 27.7N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 27.7N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 28.3N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 29.8N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 31.6N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Hammy]

Given the size (and the likelihood of any ascat pass missing it) it seems unlikely this gets named if they don't send a plane out due to lack of data. Wouldn't surprise me if the actual intensity is at storm strength at the moment.

[ronjon]

Given the size (and the likelihood of any ascat pass missing it) it seems unlikely this gets named if they don't send a plane out due to lack of data. Wouldn't surprise me if the actual intensity is at storm strength at the moment.

I think there are enough bouy and surface observations to classify if needed. At a forward speed of 8 mph it should be onshore by later this afternoon.

[NDG]

Naples reported a wind gust of 44 mph with that squall line moving east.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Given the size (and the likelihood of any ascat pass missing it) it seems unlikely this gets named if they don't send a plane out due to lack of data. Wouldn't surprise me if the actual intensity is at storm strength at the moment.

Hope it does.

[O Town]

Just arrived in Sanibel Island for vacation. Freak July front was odd. lol And now TD 6, not so odd. Raining mass amounts this morning, no wind just barrels of rain. Hoping it washes barrels of shells on shore.

[tolakram]

This is exactly how Charlie strengthened, with a cold front to the northwest. Fortunately there are significant differences in the setup so hopefully this won't strengthen much.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Reminds me a lot of TS Claudette in 2009. That one also formed out of nowhere off the coast of Tampa.

[HurricaneBelle]

We now have Emily

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Special Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WEST OF TAMPA BAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 83.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Anclote River southward to Bonita Beach.

[Nimbus]

Sarasota and Naples are getting most of the precip.
Official forecast said it isn't going to stall out over the gulf, so no worries.
I was concerned it might stay out over water long enough for the dry shear to let up.

[tolakram]

That escalated quickly.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Emily Special Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This Special Advisory is to upgrade the depression to Tropical
Storm Emily, now located just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. A Tropical
Storm Warning has also been issued for a portion of the west-
central coast of Florida.

Doppler velocity data from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D radar indicate
average velocities of 48-50 kt on the south side of the circulation
center between 4500-6500 ft altitude during the past hour. Using a
standard adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent
surface wind of about 40 kt. Therefore, the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily. Little change in strength is
expected until landfall occurs this afternoon, followed by slow
weakening as Emily moves across the Florida peninsula tonight.

The initial motion estimate is 095/07 kt. There is no change to the
previous forecast track or reasoning. Emily is expected to make
landfall along the west-central Florida coast within the warning
area by late afternoon, and then continue eastward across the
central Florida peninsula tonight, emerging off of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning.

The primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next
couple of days. However, an isolated waterspout will also be
possible in the coastal waters within the warning area.

This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the standard
Intermediate Public advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1200Z 27.7N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 27.7N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 28.3N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 29.8N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 31.6N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[TheStormExpert]

So it strengthened 10kts in just 2hrs.

[tolakram]

Live slider visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6418.5&y=5323.5&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Kazmit]

Didn't expect this. Must be a bit of a surprise for the Tampa Bay area.

[GeneratorPower]

That escalated quickly.

Here in Fort Myers. This thing is amazing. Fired up fast with no real warning. Some nasty squalls overnight now a huge rain shield. Tampa may get landfall but we are getting all the rain. Fire danger today: -9.

[jlauderdal]

So it strengthened 10kts in just 2hrs.

never forget ts emily that experienced RI to get us to a named system