ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1001 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:27 am

RL3AO wrote:The SHIPS stats are interesting. Plenty of warm water and light shear. Mediocre RH values (~50%).

http://i.imgur.com/2Z0mmoc.png


The Euro has also being forecasting light to light moderate shear over the area where it is tracking to for the next few days.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1002 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:30 am

I am going to guess 30/40, so this way they can increase percentages at a faster rate and resume advisories maybe tomorrow
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1003 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:31 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1004 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:31 am

Clouds seem to be expanding out to the W of the LLC.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1005 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:32 am

wxman57 wrote:ASCAT caught only the western edge (look around 22N/64W). No indication of any LLC on the image below. Like I said, if there is any LLC then it's too weak and disorganized for classification as anything but a tropical wave. Convection seems to be dropping off now.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... MBds87.png


Oops, I missed calculated, thinking that it was going to catch the eastern side :(
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1006 Postby Weather150 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:33 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1007 Postby Weather150 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:36 am

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 10 JULY 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z JULY 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-040

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04A
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 11/2100Z
B. AFXXX 0104A INVEST
C. 11/1645Z
D. 23.0N 68.5W
E. 11/2030Z TO 12/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION AT
12/1730Z NEAR 23.5N 72.5W
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1008 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:36 am

wxman57 wrote:ASCAT caught only the western edge (look around 22N/64W). No indication of any LLC on the image below. Like I said, if there is any LLC then it's too weak and disorganized for classification as anything but a tropical wave. Convection seems to be dropping of now.


That ASCAT doesn't even capture the area Aric posted. 22 and 63 approximately.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1009 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:37 am

Weather150 wrote:WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 10 JULY 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z JULY 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-040

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04A
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 11/2100Z
B. AFXXX 0104A INVEST
C. 11/1645Z
D. 23.0N 68.5W
E. 11/2030Z TO 12/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION AT
12/1730Z NEAR 23.5N 72.5W



so tomorrow at noon we will have our first recon :)
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ATL: FOUR - Recon

#1010 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:37 am

Tentative mission for Tuesday July 11.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04A
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 11/2100Z
B. AFXXX 0104A INVEST
C. 11/1645Z
D. 23.0N 68.5W
E. 11/2030Z TO 12/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION AT
12/1730Z NEAR 23.5N 72.5W
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1011 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:38 am

Recon? Well this is escalating quickly. Convection is starting to diminish though. As it gets further from the ULL with DMIN later, you wonder how much convection will be left. Definitely should be mentioned by NHC and bears watching.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1012 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:39 am

gatorcane wrote:Recon? Well this is escalating quickly. Convection is starting to diminish. As it gets further from the ULL with DMIN later, you wonder how much convection will be left.

but there is new convection building up along all the inflow. convection will likely refire.
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ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1013 Postby Weather150 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:40 am

Image
Sorry for double post, but GFS is coming in a bit stronger with it.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1014 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:42 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1015 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:43 am

convection decreasing as expected

This may develop again, but we will need to wait several days most likely. Once it moves into the Gulf, we will have a chance
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1016 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:43 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
so tomorrow at noon we will have our first recon :)


I wonder if those 45 to 60 knot west winds on ASCAT had something to do with that.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1017 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:44 am

GCANE wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
so tomorrow at noon we will have our first recon :)


I wonder if those 45 to 60 knot west winds on ASCAT had something to do with that.


possibly.. lol
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1018 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:47 am

Based on the satellite presentation ex TD 4 is looking good again. It has maintained and is currently creating new storms, I also noticed even some inflow coming in from the SW. Based on the models it appears what ever becomes of this will come across S. FLA.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1019 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:51 am

Yeah that type of a blowup in this area east of the Bahamas is something that shouldn't be taken lightly (especially since it'll move over Florida with development or not), NHC doing a recon is a good call (even if they wind up cancelling tomorrow).
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion: ATCF resumes Best Track data

#1020 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:53 am

GCANE wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
so tomorrow at noon we will have our first recon :)


I wonder if those 45 to 60 knot west winds on ASCAT had something to do with that.


Be careful, those winds are from WindSat, not ASCAT. I don't really trust WindSat surface obs that much....
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