ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

Wesh 2 has the euro hitting Cuba and going into the gom. They did research from all of the hurricanes where Irma is at and none have hit florida. The guy sounded confident that florida will be lucky again.

Someone posted historical data earlier based on where Irma is and almost all of the storm hit Florida. Each major actually hit Florida too. Where did you see this? It doesn't sound right

He posted where Irma is at and looked at past storms and said none of them have come close to Florida.

that not what former nhc dir on twc say their past hurr that get area by leewards island affecting fl

[txwatcher91]

Wesh 2 has the euro hitting Cuba and going into the gom. They did research from all of the hurricanes where Irma is at and none have hit florida. The guy sounded confident that florida will be lucky again.

Someone posted historical data earlier based on where Irma is and almost all of the storm hit Florida. Each major actually hit Florida too. Where did you see this? It doesn't sound right

The link posted earlier mentioned that storms passing through the Hebert Box #1 have about equal chances of hitting FL or NC, a 20% chance of recurring and like 8.5% chance of entering the GOM? I’m going off memory but I think that’s what it was.

EDIT - Here’s the link http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[eastcoastFL]

Wesh 2 has the euro hitting Cuba and going into the gom. They did research from all of the hurricanes where Irma is at and none have hit florida. The guy sounded confident that florida will be lucky again.

Someone posted historical data earlier based on where Irma is and almost all of the storm hit Florida. Each major actually hit Florida too. Where did you see this? It doesn't sound right

He posted where Irma is at and looked at past storms and said none of them have come close to Florida.

I think he was wrong. Another met posted a map earlier showing data over the past 75 yrs from the end of Irma's current track 5 days from now and a majority of them hit Florida. There were 4 that were cat 4 or higher on the map and all 4 crossed the state.

[eastcoastFL]

Wesh 2 has the euro hitting Cuba and going into the gom. They did research from all of the hurricanes where Irma is at and none have hit florida. The guy sounded confident that florida will be lucky again.

Someone posted historical data earlier based on where Irma is and almost all of the storm hit Florida. Each major actually hit Florida too. Where did you see this? It doesn't sound right

The link posted earlier mentioned that storms passing through the Hebert Box #1 have about equal chances of hitting FL or NC, a 20% chance of recurring and like 8.5% chance of entering the GOM? I’m going off memory but I think that’s what it was.

EDIT - Here’s the link http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

Thanks for posting the link. Very informative. I'm in finance and lending here in Florida. If a storm is in "the box" we can't schedule any mortgages to close nor can insurance be bound until it heads out to sea or passes the state .

[SouthFLTropics]

If Irma does head toward S Fl, I wonder if more people will evacuate after the devastation left in Texas by Harvey...:

If Irma is looking like she will be heading to Florida by Monday or Tuesday I'm going to be evacuating maybe to Georgia.

Last year with Matthew I regretted not leaving just before the storm was supposed to hit and then we got lucky and it wobbled. But just prior to that wobbled my local forecast was for 145mph winds and I was wishing I left.

I have small kids so if there's anything over a cat 2 again I'm outta here with as much time to spare as I can.

I'm in Palm City by the way which is just North of Palm Beach county on the east coast.

Hello neighbor...nice to meet a local...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Gonna post this here, but it applies to the model thread as well.

HERE are the facts.

• We have seen a slow "centrist" trend all day; that is, some of the tropical models have trended north/east, while the GFS and GFS/ENS have trended west.
• At the same time, the EURO and EURO/ENS have held steady throughout the day.
• This storm is still in the D10-D14 range for any potential US impact.
• The steering situation is fluid at best.

I doubt we will have a definitive forecast even in the D3-D5 range. We have another week until we get there. So...still a lot of time.

[thundercam96]

If Irma does head toward S Fl, I wonder if more people will evacuate after the devastation left in Texas by Harvey...:

If Irma is looking like she will be heading to Florida by Monday or Tuesday I'm going to be evacuating maybe to Georgia.

Last year with Matthew I regretted not leaving just before the storm was supposed to hit and then we got lucky and it wobbled. But just prior to that wobbled my local forecast was for 145mph winds and I was wishing I left.

I have small kids so if there's anything over a cat 2 again I'm outta here with as much time to spare as I can.

I'm in Palm City by the way which is just North of Palm Beach county on the east coast.

Hello neighbor...nice to meet a local...

I'm currently serving overseas right now, but Florida is my home. I'd absolutely hate to be 6000 miles from home and watch another Mathew (or worse) situation play out. My area was the area that was hit the hardest during that storm, and that was only borderline Cat 2 conditions.

[Alyono]

Gonna post this here, but it applies to the model thread as well.

HERE are the facts.

• We have seen a slow "centrist" trend all day; that is, some of the tropical models have trended north/east, while the GFS and GFS/ENS have trended west.
• At the same time, the EURO and EURO/ENS have held steady throughout the day.
• This storm is still in the D10-D14 range for any potential US impact.
• The steering situation is fluid at best.

I doubt we will have a definitive forecast even in the D3-D5 range. We have another week until we get there. So...still a lot of time.

I'd say 6 days from a US impact. Could reach the VI and PR in 6-7 days

[Hurricane Andrew]

Gonna post this here, but it applies to the model thread as well.

HERE are the facts.

• We have seen a slow "centrist" trend all day; that is, some of the tropical models have trended north/east, while the GFS and GFS/ENS have trended west.
• At the same time, the EURO and EURO/ENS have held steady throughout the day.
• This storm is still in the D10-D14 range for any potential US impact.
• The steering situation is fluid at best.

I doubt we will have a definitive forecast even in the D3-D5 range. We have another week until we get there. So...still a lot of time.

I'd say 6 days from a US impact. Could reach the VI and PR in 6-7 days

Fair enough...I will confess I forgot the VI had US territories, and that the PR can be considered the US.

[eastcoastFL]

If Irma does head toward S Fl, I wonder if more people will evacuate after the devastation left in Texas by Harvey...:

If Irma is looking like she will be heading to Florida by Monday or Tuesday I'm going to be evacuating maybe to Georgia.

Last year with Matthew I regretted not leaving just before the storm was supposed to hit and then we got lucky and it wobbled. But just prior to that wobbled my local forecast was for 145mph winds and I was wishing I left.

I have small kids so if there's anything over a cat 2 again I'm outta here with as much time to spare as I can.

I'm in Palm City by the way which is just North of Palm Beach county on the east coast.

Hello neighbor...nice to meet a local...

Hi there. I think we chatted last year as Matthew was bearing down on us. I was in PSL then.

[eastcoastFL]

If Irma is looking like she will be heading to Florida by Monday or Tuesday I'm going to be evacuating maybe to Georgia.

Last year with Matthew I regretted not leaving just before the storm was supposed to hit and then we got lucky and it wobbled. But just prior to that wobbled my local forecast was for 145mph winds and I was wishing I left.

I have small kids so if there's anything over a cat 2 again I'm outta here with as much time to spare as I can.

I'm in Palm City by the way which is just North of Palm Beach county on the east coast.

Hello neighbor...nice to meet a local...

I'm currently serving overseas right now, but Florida is my home. I'd absolutely hate to be 6000 miles from home and watch another Mathew (or worse) situation play out. My area was the area that was hit the hardest during that storm, and that was only borderline Cat 2 conditions.

First of all thank you for your service! I'd hate to think you're looking out for us while having to worry about this so as a fellow Floridian and fellow American if you need someone to go put up shutters or something if it does head our way please let me know and I'd gladly take care of it for you.

Thank you again for serving!

[AdamFirst]

If Irma does head toward S Fl, I wonder if more people will evacuate after the devastation left in Texas by Harvey...:

If Irma is looking like she will be heading to Florida by Monday or Tuesday I'm going to be evacuating maybe to Georgia.

Last year with Matthew I regretted not leaving just before the storm was supposed to hit and then we got lucky and it wobbled. But just prior to that wobbled my local forecast was for 145mph winds and I was wishing I left.

I have small kids so if there's anything over a cat 2 again I'm outta here with as much time to spare as I can.

I'm in Palm City by the way which is just North of Palm Beach county on the east coast.

Matthew spooked me in Port Saint Lucie. I evacuated to my sister's place in Margate, because I was pretty certain hurricane conditions weren't expected in Broward, especially inland away from the coast, and before the wobble it looked like the core was likely to be on short in St. Lucie. Fort Pierce got up to 70 MPH gusts I believe but no hurricane force - those started registering up near Vero Beach and Sebastian.

[fci]

Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:23 pm

Wesh 2 has the euro hitting Cuba and going into the gom. They did research from all of the hurricanes where Irma is at and none have hit florida. The guy sounded confident that florida will be lucky again.

Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:45 pm

According to Wesh 2 at noon it will recurve and not a threat to the us.

So which one is it?
Does WESH just throw darts at a wall? LOL

[mrbagyo]

Looks like Irma is quietly doing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Irma's eye and windfield would likely expand once it's finished.

[latitude_20]

Is it just me, or do people on this site call hurricanes with female names "girl" or "gal" a lot more than they call hurricanes with male names "boy" or "guy"? Not saying you have to stop doing so...as long as you don't start saying "Irma engulfed miles of coastline in her moist mouth..." like they said about Carla

They're all "it" to me. Just a non-living thing.

I get exactly what he's saying. To assign a gender to it, and to describe movements as "she wants to" or "he wants to" suggests you are referring to an organism with the ability of free will, vs. a weather system that is completely subject to the environment into which it drifts.

To say "He" or She" wants to "find" better waters in which to further develop is a logical fallacy, suggesting free will to a very delicate weather system.

Stop -removed-, read the promets and admins on this board, and learn how these storms work.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

lets see if IRMA pulls a Haiyan and holds intensity while under going erc's.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Is it just me, or do people on this site call hurricanes with female names "girl" or "gal" a lot more than they call hurricanes with male names "boy" or "guy"? Not saying you have to stop doing so...as long as you don't start saying "Irma engulfed miles of coastline in her moist mouth..." like they said about Carla

They're all "it" to me. Just a non-living thing.

I get exactly what he's saying. To assign a gender to it, and to describe movements as "she wants to" or "he wants to" suggests you are referring to an organism with the ability of free will, vs. a weather system that is completely subject to the environment into which it drifts.

To say "He" or She" wants to "find" better waters in which to further develop is a logical fallacy, suggesting free will to a very delicate weather system.

Stop -removed-, read the promets and admins on this board, and learn how these storms work.

I'm personally okay with people personifying storms for humorous purposes as long as it's done in a way that isn't...eyebrow raising?? (It's hard to describe, I'm talking about like stuff in old newspaper reports and that "A Lady called Camille " video...stuff that makes you feel...dirty.).
Like I study astrophysics and I still sometimes talk about the objects I study like they're people. Not in academic writing of course but online I don't really care.

(I mean we did decide to give hurricanes personal
names so it was like we were asking for such personificiations to happen.)

Just forget this whole thing. Don't want to derail your delicate active storm thread. (:3)

[Evil Jeremy]

Irma went from 0-to-60 in no time whatsoever. That scares me. This hurricane has a strong pulse, and the only thing standing in it's own way for the foreseeable future are EWRCs. Warm open waters for almost a week.

It's been a while since we've had a Cape Verde Major Hurricane that made it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten the States. Long nights ahead. Hopefully this stays north of the islands.

[Evenstar]

Is it just me, or do people on this site call hurricanes with female names "girl" or "gal" a lot more than they call hurricanes with male names "boy" or "guy"? Not saying you have to stop doing so...as long as you don't start saying "Irma engulfed miles of coastline in her moist mouth..." like they said about Carla

They're all "it" to me. Just a non-living thing.

I get exactly what he's saying. To assign a gender to it, and to describe movements as "she wants to" or "he wants to" suggests you are referring to an organism with the ability of free will, vs. a weather system that is completely subject to the environment into which it drifts.

To say "He" or She" wants to "find" better waters in which to further develop is a logical fallacy, suggesting free will to a very delicate weather system.

Stop -removed-, read the promets and admins on this board, and learn how these storms work.

Geez... What difference does it make which personal pronouns people choose to use when discussing a storm? And for the record, I don't think many of us actually anthropomorphize the storms. We all probably need to lighten up a bit and get back to the task at hand: Trying to read Irma's mind...
Sorry. Couldn't resist.

[chaser1]

Someone posted historical data earlier based on where Irma is and almost all of the storm hit Florida. Each major actually hit Florida too. Where did you see this? It doesn't sound right

He posted where Irma is at and looked at past storms and said none of them have come close to Florida.

that not what former nhc dir on twc say their past hurr that get area by leewards island affecting fl

I watched WESH news this eve. with my daughter as well, and YES he did show some inaccurate dumb ads graphic depicting exactly that.... NO hurricanes in history that were within 150 miles of Irma's COC "... ever hit Florida LMAO?! My daughter was asking why I was laughing at the TV?!!