ATL: IRMA - Models

[weathaguyry]

As we can tell, the GFS has no interest in climatology, reasonable steering currents, or the laws of physics for this run

[ColdMiser123]

As we can tell, the GFS has no interest in climatology, reasonable steering currents, or the laws of physics for this run

Nothing violated the laws of physics in that run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

As we can tell, the GFS has no interest in climatology, reasonable steering currents, or the laws of physics for this run

Nothing violated the laws of physics in that run.

Plowing straight through the ridge was an obvious bias in that run to say the least though. It couldn't get this thing north fast enough.

[CrazyC83]

This setup really screams Isabel to me. That seems to be the storm most similar due to the incoming trough, higher latitude initiation and strong ridge.

[meriland29]

I agree, and am also disappointed that the GFS could make such a type of error, it is basic physics. This however, makes me even more intrigued for the Euro run.

[ConvergenceZone]

While an East Coast Landfall definitely isn't fantasy land, plowing through the ridge definitely is. It is interesting though that this is the first model run of an East Coast Landfall. Wish I could stay up for the EURO

[Bocadude85]

According to the 0Z HWRF Irma will gain 1.4 degrees in latitude in the next 24 hours...we shall see..she still seems to be trucking off to the west to me.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Canadian model also picks the weakness in the steering before the windward Islands.

Cant just have blindfolds on too all model that are not EC.

[meriland29]

In other news, Irma's current look...





She really is getting that swirl..

[weathaguyry]

This setup really screams Isabel to me. That seems to be the storm most similar due to the incoming trough, higher latitude initiation and strong ridge.

This also comes to mind as something that was at a fairly high latitude

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

In other news, Irma's current look...




She really is getting that swirl..

Yes she going too be one sexy system when mature.

[Alyono]

Any METs have a clue as to why the GFS goes through the ridge in long term?

It is physically impossible lol. The GFS is making its own rules tonight

GFS has been doing this BS since 2004. NCEP has never addressed this obvious flaw in the model

[Alyono]

Landfall in Maine at 252hrs as a 954mb, whatever you want to call it, large enough to create TS winds south of Long Island

it's a LOT more intense than 954. The pressure rose due to the resolution truncation. It is basically saying a legit cat 3 into Maine with a real pressure around 920mb

[Bocadude85]

Canadian model also picks the weakness in the steering before the windward Islands.

Cant just have blindfolds on too all model that are not EC.

I agree that we have to factor in both the GFS and Canadian, it will be interesting to see what their ensembles show. The 12Z ensembles for both were farther west then the op runs.

[meriland29]

What time approx does Euro start?

[AxaltaRacing24]

What time approx does Euro start?

Around 1:45 EST

[CrazyC83]

Landfall in Maine at 252hrs as a 954mb, whatever you want to call it, large enough to create TS winds south of Long Island

it's a LOT more intense than 954. The pressure rose due to the resolution truncation. It is basically saying a legit cat 3 into Maine with a real pressure around 920mb

I wonder if the GFS doesn't simulate extratropical transition very well? Since by then it would likely be close to, if not, extratropical.

[Bocadude85]

The 0Z HMON is about 3.5 degrees farther west then the 18z run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017083100&fh=117&xpos=0&ypos=0

[meriland29]

[AutoPenalti]

I just got back from the airport to check on the GFS and I have to say... Just. WOW.

Not only does it go below 900mb, it actually rams through the Ridge up towards a landmass.

Holy cow!