ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

5pm track shifted @20 miles East up to @Ft. Myers...

What's the link to that radar? Lost all my links a while ago

But it shifted back WEST on the west FL coast at land fall...

[GCANE]

[Meteorcane]

Both eyes appear to have shrunk a few miles based on recon (sort of apparent on radar too). Also the 934 drop had 20 knots so actual min pressure is likely a mb or 2 lower.

[Kingarabian]

URNT12 KWBC 092153
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/21:43:21Z
B. 23 deg 19 min N
080 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2529 m
D. 92 kt
E. 294 deg 16 nm
F. 032 deg 103 kt
G. 297 deg 19 nm
H. 934 mb
I. 13 C / 3060 m
J. 19 C / 3058 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO12-25
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. NOAA2 2711A IRMA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 103 KT 297 / 19 NM 21:38:50Z
SEC MAX FL WIND 83 KT BRNG:309 deg RNG:54 nm
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 145 / 20 KTS

[Miami Storm Tracker]

NHC says WNW at 9 mph, looking at the KeyWest radar I barely see any movement at all.

[JarrodB]

I am worried about this guy. He was one of my boat neighbors in Key West. He means well and wants to help, but I think his arrogance and know it all attitude could get him killed.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=iLgpH2IjmQA

[terrapintransit]

She's starting to really look pretty again, that is very unfortunate, as I think this has an excellent chance of getting back to Cat 5, and if she stays off shore by even just 50 miles until the panhandle, she won't lose much energy.

Yea, if it remains in the water just off the coast, I would not be surprised for this beast to make not only cat 5 status again but also to crack 200mph + winds...

[Frank P]

NHC says WNW at 9 mph, looking at the KeyWest radar I barely see any movement at all.

no slow down evident on this loop

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[craptacular]

Per recon it's still moving west with no serious northern component. CMC was on to something!

Three center fixes from current mission:
23 deg 08 min N
080 deg 14 min W

23 deg 13 min N
080 deg 27 min W

23 deg 19 min N
080 deg 38 min W

What do you consider a "serious northern component"?

[SNOW_JOKE]

NOAA are one Recon-plane down today due to a lightning strike earlier on.

The lightning strike was believed to be minor and hit the front end of the modified C130 aircraft leaving some damage. The aircraft will be grounded for some time to be fixed for the damage, but it is unknown how long.

http://wkrg.com/2017/09/09/lightning-st ... -5-aboard/

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 21:43:21Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°19'N 80°38'W (23.3167N 80.6333W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 92kts (~ 105.9mph)
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 32° at 103kts (From the NNE at ~ 118.5mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 934mb (27.58 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)

[SoupBone]

This is both sad and stupid.

 https://twitter.com/wxgarrett/status/906619121823047680

[DESTRUCTION5]

Lots of Cat 1-2 winds well removed to the NE.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KWBC 092201
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 29 20170909
215130 2319N 08002W 6960 02933 9754 +123 +114 175071 071 055 006 00
215200 2319N 08000W 6956 02949 9764 +123 +114 176069 070 055 004 00
215230 2319N 07958W 6959 02951 9769 +124 +122 178068 068 052 004 00
215300 2319N 07956W 6953 02966 9776 +124 //// 178066 067 051 007 01
215330 2319N 07954W 6959 02964 9783 +124 //// 179066 066 051 007 01
215400 2319N 07952W 6959 02971 9789 +124 //// 180068 070 055 008 01
215430 2319N 07949W 6957 02978 9796 +123 +122 177066 068 055 005 00
215500 2319N 07947W 6955 02988 9805 +123 +115 177066 066 056 004 00
215530 2319N 07945W 6961 02983 9812 +120 +116 177065 066 054 004 00
215600 2319N 07943W 6955 02998 9818 +122 +111 179064 065 053 003 00
215630 2319N 07941W 6958 02996 9822 +120 +119 179067 067 055 004 00
215700 2319N 07939W 6958 03003 9829 +120 +114 182066 068 055 005 00
215730 2319N 07936W 6966 03001 9833 +121 +118 182065 068 056 005 00
215800 2319N 07934W 6956 03016 9838 +121 +115 182064 065 056 004 00
215830 2319N 07932W 6958 03015 9841 +123 +111 182066 068 063 004 00
215900 2319N 07930W 6957 03022 9850 +120 +107 183068 068 060 003 00
215930 2319N 07927W 6958 03023 9856 +118 +106 184068 068 058 004 00
220000 2319N 07925W 6961 03025 9861 +118 +113 184067 067 060 003 00
220030 2319N 07923W 6956 03038 9866 +118 +111 185066 066 060 003 00
220100 2319N 07921W 6952 03045 9871 +117 +107 183066 066 059 004 00

[BYG Jacob]

Less talked about is the potential for ground-flooding due to the rainfall forecast, FL has a aquifer-system beneath the state not only potentially raising the ground-water upwards but also stopping any rain-water from easily draining away due to the combination of the both.

With that in mind, is there any potential for a 'brown-ocean' effect to happen over FL due to the everglades and swamplands.

Yes, that's why she's predicted to still be a major halfway up the peninsula.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks FrankP,

on the radar you provided for sure it is moving. Why would the basic Key west radar look as if it's not moving?

[Audrey2Katrina]

Definitely can note a more northern uptick in the movement of the eye. By tonight it could well be on that NNW track.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a big west wobble

[ATCcane]

NOAA are one Recon-plane down today due to a lightning strike earlier on.

The lightning strike was believed to be minor and hit the front end of the modified C130 aircraft leaving some damage. The aircraft will be grounded for some time to be fixed for the damage, but it is unknown how long.

http://wkrg.com/2017/09/09/lightning-st ... -5-aboard/

NOAA flies P3's. It was an Air Force C130 that was hit by lightning.

[lrak]

Radar looks like the turn north has commenced.