ATL: IRMA - Models

[Jevo]

Irma following the forecast cone quite on point. Behaving as forecasted by the NHC. No real unpredictable movement.

It is NE of NHC Track and even more NE of Euro

If she is in the cone, she is along the forecast track of the NHC.

Agreed! This is the reason the lines and dots in the cone are so misleading in the forecasts. While I don't think this will have a huge effect on track it is noteable that anything East of expected puts the population central of SE FL in stronger weather. Irma is a bit NE of the track right now, but still in the forecast cone, so not unexpected.

[NDG]

12z Euro shifted a little to the right compared to last night's run which showed landfall near Cape Coral, now it shows landfall near Naples, then straight north to just east of Tampa over Plant City then bend back more to the NNW after that.

Never mind, I was looking at the GFS model.

[Jevo]

Irma is already NE of the 12z Euro model initialization which started inland Cuba. Good thing we have her on radar now.

[MrJames]

Into Alabama

[jabman98]

On the Discussion thread last night someone mentioned that DirecTV was starting hurricane coverage on a dedicated channel (361-2) where they use the feed from local stations. I have DirecTV so just checked it out. They are using a feed from Channel 7, which looks like it's from Miami.

The model related question I have is that the local met from that channel showed close ups of the models around Cuba and said four models were showing a jog back into Cuba, which could slow down the northward progression of the storm if that happened.

I hadn't picked up on discussion of that jog back into Cuba here in the models thread (might have missed it). Which models are showing that?

[NDG]

12z Euro's position for 20z this afternoon is to the west of where Irma's eye is right now so Irma would have to track due west over the next couple of hours to make that forecast point, it is a little left bias and so was last night's run which show Irma to go much further Inland into Cuba today. The best thing to do is to go with a compromise between the GFS and Euro for now, which are pretty close already but a few miles could make a difference.

[tolakram]

On the Discussion thread last night someone mentioned that DirecTV was starting hurricane coverage on a dedicated channel (361-2) where they use the feed from local stations. I have DirecTV so just checked it out. They are using a feed from Channel 7, which looks like it's from Miami.

The model related question I have is that the local met from that channel showed close ups of the models around Cuba and said four models were showing a jog back into Cuba, which could slow down the northward progression of the storm if that happened.

I hadn't picked up on discussion of that jog back into Cuba here in the models thread (might have missed it). Which models are showing that?

None of the reliable ones.

[Nimbus]

Run was too far south IMO. It had the storm in the middle of Cuba.

Looked that way but its now time to now cast with Irma showing up on US Radar Imagery...

For south Florida I would be nowcasting from radar but the 12Z euro did have slightly more ridging north of Irma late in the forecast. Just one run, I would want to see a run with Irma's correct initial position.

[jabman98]

On the Discussion thread last night someone mentioned that DirecTV was starting hurricane coverage on a dedicated channel (361-2) where they use the feed from local stations. I have DirecTV so just checked it out. They are using a feed from Channel 7, which looks like it's from Miami.

The model related question I have is that the local met from that channel showed close ups of the models around Cuba and said four models were showing a jog back into Cuba, which could slow down the northward progression of the storm if that happened.

I hadn't picked up on discussion of that jog back into Cuba here in the models thread (might have missed it). Which models are showing that?

None of the reliable ones.

Thanks! I was wondering since I've been following along and didn't see any discussion along those lines.

[OntarioEggplant]

I'm just absolutely stunned by this Euro run. The absolutely worst case scenario for the west coast of Florida

[Blown Away]

Very slight E adjustment to TVCN... I'm thinking very little to no change in track at 5pm...

[tolakram]

We need to ban that plot, clp5 and xtrp do nothing but raise a lot of questions.

CLP5 is climatology based
XTRP is just a continuation of current motion.

[DESTRUCTION5]

We need to ban that plot, clp5 and xtrp do nothing but raise a lot of questions.

CLP5 is climatology based
XTRP is just a continuation of current motion.

Wish someone would make one with the big 5 and dump the Bams clip xtrap etc...useless. ohh and nix the NAM too...!

[Steve]

RGB Loop seems to indicate that the GFS, ECMWF, HMON and HWRF (being all in on sub 930mb pressure Cat 4 or maybe even 5?) could be right. It's been appearing for the last 3 days or so that this would be the point where the deepest intensification would happen particularly through tonight. However, the Cuba interaction may be the thing that saved us from something even worse than what we're going to have to deal with.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I don't personally have a call. I thought low 920's the other day when it appeared it would bomb in the Staits to the 900s or 910s and come up toward Miami. I at least expect 935. But whether it can drop to 925 or 915 remains to be seen.

[MrJames]

12z Euro Ensembles

[N2tropicAL]

im in east central Alabama and this isn't looking too good for us this far inland... opal and ivan was very destructive here and im thinking Irma will be as well.

[Blinhart]

12z Euro Ensembles

So a west shift is continuing, looks like Panama City Beach is now in the cross-hairs.

[Noles2016]

12z Euro Ensembles

So a west shift is continuing, looks like Panama City Beach is now in the cross-hairs.

Yout are about 100 miles too far West...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Exactly how much are we expecting shear to effect this if it follows a more eastern route?

[otowntiger]

12z Euro Ensembles

Wow! The average of those is well off shore? Has the euro ensembles shifted further? That suite has been determined to scare the crap out of the panhandle and decimate Tampa!