ATL: HARVEY - Models

[WAcyclone]

ECMWF precipitation maximum seems to be near Kenedy in Karnes County. 32.5 inches would certainly cause problems especially because almost all of that is falling between the 27th and 29th.



Source: https://www.windy.com

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Do the Euro ensembles mostly show weak systems or hurricanes ?

[Steve]

12z EPS brings it back over the gulf waters @ day 8. Meanders and drifts NE and the ensembles begin to lose it thereafter.

More track changes to come, but the ensembles are keying in on Texas.

Do any of them show hurricanes or are they just sheared tropical sterms?

It's not going to be a "sheared tropical storm" like you would find in June or October. This is a different type of entity. There isn't a front draped just west of the system. In this case, there is a retrograding, concentric upper level low that is (or will be) ventilating it. It may only get up to TS intensity. But it's not, I don't think, going to be what you alluded to if it is able to mature.

[ColdMiser123]

12z EPS brings it back over the gulf waters @ day 8. Meanders and drifts NE and the ensembles begin to lose it thereafter.

More track changes to come, but the ensembles are keying in on Texas.

Do any of them show hurricanes or are they just sheared tropical sterms?

Good spread, but many hurricanes in the mix. Some support for second landfall near Lousiana.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

12z EPS brings it back over the gulf waters @ day 8. Meanders and drifts NE and the ensembles begin to lose it thereafter.

More track changes to come, but the ensembles are keying in on Texas.

Do any of them show hurricanes or are they just sheared tropical sterms?

What is the likely hood of a hurricane ?

Good spread, but many hurricanes in the mix. Some support for second landfall near Lousiana.

[Craters]

Can anyone link the rainfall estimates?

Up to 20 inches in several areas. 16+ inches for much of SE Texas. Looks like the scale needs to be expanded in this graphic:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/953-w-320-n/acc-total-precipitation/20170831-0000z.html

I live in that 16 inch swatch area and that would be devastating.

Me, too, Perk. Amen to what you said...

[jaguars_22]

I am in Victoria and we havent been touched by a hurricane since claudette 15 years ago. The speed and position of where he will reform should hopefully keep it away from the mid texas coast... either the front picks it up before it reaches coast or it cruises straight across BOC into mexico. Been watching these for last 15 years and my gut instinct says further north... LOUSIANA

I AM BY FAR NOT A METEROLOGIST, just a resident

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Would this reform as Henry or would it be named Irma for the second go round?

[jaguars_22]

Whos henry?

[Frank P]

Would this reform as Henry or would it be named Irma for the second go round?

Henry, no Harvey

[tailgater]

Euro hasn't done particularly well especially beyond 6-7 days so this idea of it turning ENE and getting back into the Gulf needs more models runs before it is believable. Most models runs are into Mexico with some into extreme south Texas:

These tropical models that bring it to the Rio Grand valley give the Euro a little cred, a abrupt stop to the NW track shortly after passing Laredo Tx. then back tracking south or east

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Would this reform as Henry or would it be named Irma for the second go round?

Henry

You mean Harvey

[Frank P]

Would this reform as Henry or would it be named Irma for the second go round?

Henry

You mean Harvey

Yeah, still blind from shooting the eclipse earlier.. probably fried some of my limited number of brain cells too.. thanks

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Henry

You mean Harvey

Yeah, still blind from shooting the eclipse earlier.. probably fried some of my limited number of brain cells too.. thanks

Lol

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Would this reform as Henry or would it be named Irma for the second go round?

Henry, no Harvey

Holy crap i cant believe i did that!! Lol wooooww its definitely a monday lol

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Henry

You mean Harvey

Yeah, still blind from shooting the eclipse earlier.. probably fried some of my limited number of brain cells too.. thanks

I sadly did not experience the eclipse i was fogged in down here in southern california

[NDG]

Euro hasn't done particularly well especially beyond 6-7 days so this idea of it turning ENE and getting back into the Gulf needs more models runs before it is believable. Most models runs are into Mexico with some into extreme south Texas:

https://s4.postimg.org/55tiamnr1/09_L_tracks_18z.png

Yes it needs more runs and or other models for support but the GFS has Harry meandering around central and southern TX from Friday through Tuesday, at least agreeing with the Euro that the steering will collapse during that time.

[Frank P]

Euro hasn't done particularly well especially beyond 6-7 days so this idea of it turning ENE and getting back into the Gulf needs more models runs before it is believable. Most models runs are into Mexico with some into extreme south Texas:

https://s4.postimg.org/55tiamnr1/09_L_tracks_18z.png

Yes it needs more runs and or other models for support but the GFS has Harry meandering around central and southern TX from Friday through Tuesday, at least agreeing with the Euro that the steering will collapse during that time.

Yes Sir, it could be a fun week to track Howard as it enters the Gulf...

[ROCK]

wow what a north shift and the 12z EURO had this a few runs ago...

[Frank P]

wow what a north shift and the 12z EURO had this a few runs ago...

Yep, that just came out of nowhere too... gotta love the might Euro... now if it comes to fruition is another matter.. regardless someone is getting copious amounts of rain... hope they need it...