ATL: IRMA - Models

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meriland29
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1021 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:43 am

Euro initialized..

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1022 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:47 am

I am up for the EURO...why?!

Oh yeah...I remember now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1023 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:49 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:I am up for the EURO...why?!

Oh yeah...I remember now.



Cause we a intrigued and confused..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1024 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:49 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:I am up for the EURO...why?!

Oh yeah...I remember now.

Currently eating pistachios because I want to see all physics defied an- oh wait
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1025 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:50 am

meriland29 wrote:Euro initialized..

Image


And initialized her 9 mb too high. Most likely she mostly has a lower pressure now, she was at 999 3 hours ago, I wouldn't be surprised if by the time the next advisory comes out she is a hurricane with a pressure around 995.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1026 Postby toad strangler » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:52 am

0z GFS fantasy range solution makes no sense.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1027 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:54 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1028 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:01 am

meriland29 wrote:Image

Euro initialized Irma as a 1008 low. Irma is currently a 999mb TS.

What. the. heck.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1029 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:01 am

Image

48
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1030 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:04 am

Image

Ukmet is looking flatter and much too close, too the islands.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1031 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:05 am

Isn't the pressure shown on these model runs not exactly the right pressure? I keep hearing mentions of the "high resolution" EURO which shows the actual pressure on initialization.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1032 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:08 am

That little cut-off low is gone.

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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1033 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:09 am

well I can give you the 500mb but literally anyway you slice it, the mb are still on the low end..


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1034 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:09 am

72 hrs.

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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1035 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:14 am

That little cutoff as you put it is the reason for the weakness and the lift GFS shows.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1036 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:15 am

96 hours is about a degree further westward and about 18 mb stronger.
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1037 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:15 am

A major hurricane will be steered by more than the 500 mb winds. It'll be steered by the mean flow through most of the atmosphere. Once a hurricane is that strong, it gets tough to completely subtract out the vortex to get the background flow. We can try with Levi's area sounding. It shows the hurricane would move to the WNW or NW...exactly like the model showed. The GFS didn't break physics.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1038 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:15 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1039 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:17 am

Ignoring the exact track of the hurricane for a moment, the Euro did trend stronger with the ULL in front of future Irma, closer to the GFS. Closed height contours at H5 at hr 96 vs open in last night's run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1040 Postby Siker » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:20 am

wxmann_91 wrote:Ignoring the exact track of the hurricane for a moment, the Euro did trend stronger with the ULL in front of future Irma, closer to the GFS. Closed height contours at H5 at hr 96 vs open in last night's run.


It also had higher heights south and southeast of the ULL for what that might contribute to steering.
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