ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

The storm has an intact core and convection is already blowing up plus it's going to be moving over the hottest Waters in our basin.

I hope the NHC is right and this ends up a low end Cat 1 but we've already seen how quickly these storms can ramp up.

[floridasun78]

so going early morning landfall like 2am or after what i see on map?

[stormlover2013]

Cmc is even weaker!!

[Aric Dunn]

The Gfs was a bit east from its last run, if that means anything

it doesn't. It has 2 areas of vorticity doing a Fujiwara around each other. This, after it develops an even stronger area of vorticity on the Pacific side of Nicaragua

the fujiwhara starts with the current noname system then magically creates another seperate vorticity ...

[CrazyC83]

This run also has all the G-IV data coded in, along with the extra balloons from Florida. So in theory it should be better, but it seemed to muddy the waters even more.

[Aric Dunn]

Cmc is even weaker!!

yes but the first 36 hours the interaction with the noname system is good.. then it too starts developing multiple silly vorts.. good before then..

[Aric Dunn]

This run also has all the G-IV data coded in, along with the extra balloons from Florida. So in theory it should be better, but it seemed to muddy the waters even more.

except for the intial interaction with noname before all the silly vorts appear.. .

[Alyono]

Cmc is even weaker!!

CMC is stronger though than its 12Z run. It too have far too much spurious vorticity. Look at its upper environment, Incredibly favorable. The excess vorticity is creating unfavorable low level winds in the models

[bella_may]

The storm has an intact core and convection is already blowing up plus it's going to be moving over the hottest Waters in our basin.

I hope the NHC is right and this ends up a low end Cat 1 but we've already seen how quickly these storms can ramp up.

It does look like it's blowing up all of a sudden

[CrazyC83]

RNT15 KNHC 060400
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 31 20171006
035030 1600N 08402W 8433 01500 0024 +165 +158 167034 034 029 001 00
035100 1600N 08404W 8428 01504 0023 +165 +159 165034 034 031 000 00
035130 1600N 08406W 8429 01502 0021 +165 +159 160034 034 031 001 00
035200 1600N 08407W 8433 01496 0020 +165 +157 159034 034 032 000 00
035230 1600N 08409W 8425 01502 0019 +165 +156 156033 034 032 000 00
035300 1559N 08411W 8433 01493 0016 +164 +156 154034 034 033 001 00
035330 1559N 08412W 8428 01497 0014 +163 +156 150034 034 034 000 00
035400 1558N 08414W 8428 01495 0012 +165 +156 146032 034 034 001 00
035430 1558N 08416W 8432 01489 0009 +165 +157 141032 034 034 002 00
035500 1557N 08417W 8429 01492 0006 +167 +159 142033 034 035 002 03
035530 1556N 08419W 8429 01488 0002 +169 +160 142030 031 035 002 00
035600 1555N 08420W 8433 01482 9999 +172 +162 147023 029 033 001 03
035630 1554N 08421W 8426 01488 9997 +174 +164 146019 019 030 001 00
035700 1553N 08423W 8433 01481 9997 +169 +167 147021 022 026 005 00
035730 1552N 08424W 8428 01485 9996 +170 +167 147020 021 026 006 00
035800 1551N 08426W 8433 01479 9991 +178 +163 147019 020 026 002 03
035830 1551N 08428W 8422 01487 9989 +177 +163 143019 019 016 003 00
035900 1552N 08429W 8433 01477 9989 +178 +161 140019 019 022 001 00
035930 1552N 08431W 8433 01477 9991 +173 +164 126017 019 022 001 00
040000 1553N 08433W 8428 01482 9993 +170 +165 107014 016 022 001 00
$$
;

Center missed - pressure likely around 997mb.

[Alyono]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2017 0 15.3N 83.5W 999 39
1200UTC 06.10.2017 12 18.5N 84.7W 993 40
0000UTC 07.10.2017 24 21.9N 86.5W 990 46
1200UTC 07.10.2017 36 25.6N 89.1W 983 56
0000UTC 08.10.2017 48 28.2N 90.0W 976 59
1200UTC 08.10.2017 60 30.8N 88.3W 971 52
0000UTC 09.10.2017 72 34.3N 85.0W 984 30
1200UTC 09.10.2017 84 37.7N 79.9W 996 24
0000UTC 10.10.2017 96 40.5N 73.8W 1001 39
1200UTC 10.10.2017 108 42.0N 69.1W 1004 35

UKMET much stronger

[CrazyC83]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2017 0 15.3N 83.5W 999 39
1200UTC 06.10.2017 12 18.5N 84.7W 993 40
0000UTC 07.10.2017 24 21.9N 86.5W 990 46
1200UTC 07.10.2017 36 25.6N 89.1W 983 56
0000UTC 08.10.2017 48 28.2N 90.0W 976 59
1200UTC 08.10.2017 60 30.8N 88.3W 971 52
0000UTC 09.10.2017 72 34.3N 85.0W 984 30
1200UTC 09.10.2017 84 37.7N 79.9W 996 24
0000UTC 10.10.2017 96 40.5N 73.8W 1001 39
1200UTC 10.10.2017 108 42.0N 69.1W 1004 35

UKMET much stronger

It's also a bit farther east, especially after 48 hours. Landfall would likely be near Biloxi in that run.

[SoupBone]

The Gfs was a bit east from its last run, if that means anything

it doesn't. It has 2 areas of vorticity doing a Fujiwara around each other. This, after it develops an even stronger area of vorticity on the Pacific side of Nicaragua

the fujiwhara starts with the current noname system then magically creates another seperate vorticity ...

And this what you've been talking about all day. Very interesting to say the least. Any other models pick up on this?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 060410
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 32 20171006
040030 1553N 08435W 8425 01484 9994 +170 +165 081016 017 020 001 00
040100 1553N 08437W 8434 01476 9995 +170 +165 072017 018 022 001 00
040130 1554N 08438W 8428 01484 9999 +166 +166 072017 018 026 007 00
040200 1554N 08440W 8430 01482 9996 +171 +166 061015 017 020 003 00
040230 1554N 08442W 8430 01484 9999 +170 +164 045015 016 019 002 00
040300 1554N 08444W 8425 01492 0004 +165 +161 043018 019 018 003 00
040330 1555N 08446W 8430 01490 0008 +167 +160 034022 024 021 001 00
040400 1555N 08447W 8436 01487 0010 +169 +158 028025 026 023 001 00
040430 1556N 08449W 8425 01499 0012 +168 +158 032024 025 022 001 00
040500 1557N 08450W 8433 01493 0012 +166 +162 028022 024 023 003 01
040530 1558N 08451W 8436 01493 //// +164 //// 028023 025 023 002 01
040600 1559N 08453W 8425 01503 0024 +165 +165 026024 027 024 015 03
040630 1559N 08455W 8446 01482 0033 +164 +164 015024 026 038 027 00
040700 1600N 08456W 8431 01501 0030 +166 +166 022023 026 035 007 00
040730 1600N 08458W 8424 01510 0029 +165 +165 009021 023 038 011 00
040800 1601N 08459W 8423 01510 0037 +163 +163 001029 038 040 016 00
040830 1601N 08501W 8426 01508 0035 +155 +153 346024 038 050 025 00
040900 1602N 08502W 8434 01499 0042 +152 +152 337018 020 050 026 00
040930 1603N 08504W 8421 01514 0041 +154 +154 346021 022 043 028 00
041000 1603N 08505W 8435 01499 0038 +156 +156 355023 024 042 025 00
$$
;

Pressure center and wind center are separated by significant distances. 38 kt FL, 50 kt SFMR.

[Alyono]

UMKET makes landfall at the Delta, then into MS/AL

Getting to the point where we NEED this to go east of New Orleans or else we could be looking at a horrible disaster given the trends this evening in terms of intensity

[ColdMiser123]

Multiple unflagged 50 KT SFMR measurements. Far removed from the 54 KT flight level wind measured earlier though.

040830 1601N 08501W 8426 01508 0035 +155 +153 346024 038 050 025 00
040900 1602N 08502W 8434 01499 0042 +152 +152 337018 020 050 026 00

[Alyono]

pressure looks to have fallen to about 998mb

[NDG]

Amazing that Nate remained a TS over land for 12+ hrs with a very defined core, as confirmed by the recon.

[bella_may]

UMKET makes landfall at the Delta, then into MS/AL

Getting to the point where we NEED this to go east of New Orleans or else we could be looking at a horrible disaster given the trends this evening in terms of intensity

How strong?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 060420
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 33 20171006
041030 1604N 08507W 8423 01513 0043 +155 +155 012024 025 040 020 00
041100 1604N 08508W 8433 01505 0040 +157 +157 017025 025 035 011 00
041130 1605N 08510W 8427 01512 0038 +161 +161 017032 036 036 013 03
041200 1605N 08512W 8427 01514 0040 +157 +156 022031 034 035 009 00
041230 1606N 08513W 8427 01517 0040 +161 +157 015031 034 032 010 00
041300 1607N 08515W 8422 01523 0037 +162 +155 014027 030 030 006 00
041330 1607N 08516W 8433 01510 0040 +158 +156 016025 026 029 008 03
041400 1608N 08518W 8429 01517 0048 +157 +157 020030 032 033 013 00
041430 1608N 08519W 8430 01516 0049 +155 +155 019032 033 035 009 03
041500 1609N 08521W 8434 01513 0045 +156 +152 015037 038 034 009 00
041530 1609N 08522W 8425 01522 0046 +155 +155 013032 037 031 008 00
041600 1610N 08524W 8430 01518 0049 +155 +155 012030 031 030 009 00
041630 1611N 08526W 8430 01520 0051 +154 +154 014030 032 031 010 00
041700 1611N 08527W 8430 01518 0052 +155 +154 015027 028 030 012 00
041730 1612N 08529W 8429 01523 0047 +160 +151 016029 031 028 008 00
041800 1612N 08530W 8429 01524 0047 +160 +146 019029 031 025 004 00
041830 1613N 08532W 8431 01522 0048 +163 +143 019030 031 022 003 00
041900 1613N 08533W 8428 01526 0048 +165 +138 023031 031 020 002 00
041930 1614N 08535W 8432 01521 0048 +165 +140 025029 031 023 001 00
042000 1615N 08537W 8429 01525 0049 +163 +147 031027 028 022 001 00
$$
;