ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I take an hour away.. come back and its still just drifting.. well thats disconcerting.

You need to get up with the times, even the radar loops are slower than the GOES16 1 minute jobs.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-10

Moving near due north and IR improving by the minute.

Good too see someone else use's this resource.

[Aric Dunn]

You need to get up with the times, even the radar loops are slower than the GOES16 1 minute jobs.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-10

Moving near due north and IR improving by the minute.

well I agree satellite looks to be a slow north drift.. my statement still holds.. that sat loop is two hours long and its barely moved it will not make the 6z position unless it picks up more speed than forecast..

anyone have a long loop.. like the past 4 hours of radar ?

sat apperance is def better.. but wont RI with that inner eyewall still there.

Aric,

I know that a stall is usually a precursor to a turn to the north. However, if it stays moving very slow, I keep hearing it could move more west, but I isn't it the opposite? Wouldn't it trend staying more to the east due to the low to erode the high so it could move more north?

Thanks.

well becasue its not just a weakness and a trough there is a mid to upper low dropping ssw west over the MS valley that will draw it north then nnw ... maybe a slight nne movement once farther north before bending back nw later on..

[LarryWx]

I take an hour away.. come back and its still just drifting.. well thats disconcerting.

You need to get up with the times, even the radar loops are slower than the GOES16 1 minute jobs.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-10

Moving near due north and IR improving by the minute.

well I agree satellite looks to be a slow north drift.. my statement still holds.. that sat loop is two hours long and its barely moved it will not make the 6z position unless it picks up more speed than forecast..

anyone have a long loop.. like the past 4 hours of radar ?

sat apperance is def better.. but wont RI with that inner eyewall still there.

The 12Z Euro says you'll see an abrupt turn shortly with the 2AM EDT position clearly NNW of the 8PM position. Let's see if this happens.

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon on the way. Should have some solid passes of an intensifying storm.

[Steve]

If it's starting to or about to swing more north, pressure falls several hours out will usually indicate the trail. I was wondering if anyone knows if there are any real-time buoy data fed surface maps that were publicly available. After Key West, it's about the pressure falls. Who knows, it could just hit the whole coast. But I'd be curious to check in on something like that if it updated regularly. Thanks.

[Jevo]

Using GRLevel 3 and plotting 5 min polls this thing is looking like due N mayyyyyybe NNW, but it looks like she decided on a general direction

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/ABCWorldNews/status/906686332973584386

[Frank P]

yeeahh soo.. the fact that radar shows little movement and satellite is showing movement just tells me that the inner eyewall is degrating and rotating around.. I Would wager in the next hour it looks like its moving west again.. then south..

for the 2 hours my GR go back.. I plotted the inner edge of the outer eyewall from 2 hours ago till now and it barely moved like a few miles..

respectfully disagree... both these radar loops indicate slow wnw motion of Irma... of course my opinion

forgot to add links, on next page... opps

[SouthFLTropics]

I take an hour away.. come back and its still just drifting.. well thats disconcerting.

Agreed Aric...I'm concerned that the longer it hangs out the more time the ridge has to erode. A storm on a South approach to the peninsula is a tricky animal. I remember Irene in 99 was forecasted to go further West and ended up East of Lake Okeechobee. Regardless, we are ready as we can be here in Port St. Lucie.

[Frank P]

yeeahh soo.. the fact that radar shows little movement and satellite is showing movement just tells me that the inner eyewall is degrating and rotating around.. I Would wager in the next hour it looks like its moving west again.. then south..

for the 2 hours my GR go back.. I plotted the inner edge of the outer eyewall from 2 hours ago till now and it barely moved like a few miles..

respectfully disagree... both these radar loops indicate slow wnw motion of Irma... of course my opinion
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... X&loop=yes
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Aric Dunn]

Any way.. either way its still moving very slowly.. drifting northerly..

[ConvergenceZone]

I think this is definitely strengthening now, just based on satellite presentation alone

[meriland29]

Recon on the way. Should have some solid passes of an intensifying storm.

That, or the continuation of dropping pressures with the winds still on the lower end in comparison, will be a interesting pass to see what she is up to.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100117
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 09 20170910
010730 2730N 08559W 4099 07383 0373 -150 -302 314016 016 028 000 00
010800 2729N 08556W 4098 07385 0374 -150 -303 317016 016 028 000 00
010830 2727N 08554W 4099 07384 0374 -150 -304 318016 016 028 000 00
010900 2726N 08552W 4099 07383 0374 -150 -303 323016 016 028 000 00
010930 2724N 08549W 4098 07388 0375 -150 -304 328016 016 031 001 00
011000 2722N 08547W 4099 07384 0375 -150 -308 330017 018 031 001 00
011030 2721N 08544W 4101 07380 0373 -150 -309 331019 019 033 001 00
011100 2719N 08542W 4099 07384 0373 -150 -317 329019 020 030 000 00
011130 2718N 08540W 4101 07382 0373 -150 -311 327019 020 027 001 00
011200 2716N 08537W 4098 07388 0373 -149 -181 323019 020 024 001 00
011230 2715N 08535W 4103 07378 0374 -145 -275 317017 019 025 000 00
011300 2713N 08532W 4099 07384 0375 -148 -335 324018 019 027 000 00
011330 2712N 08530W 4099 07382 0372 -150 -343 327020 020 027 000 00
011400 2710N 08528W 4099 07382 0370 -150 -343 327019 020 027 000 00
011430 2708N 08525W 4099 07380 0370 -150 -344 330018 019 027 000 00
011500 2707N 08523W 4099 07379 0370 -149 -344 328018 018 028 001 00
011530 2705N 08521W 4098 07380 0369 -147 -345 329019 019 029 000 00
011600 2704N 08518W 4098 07380 0369 -150 -341 333019 019 028 000 00
011630 2702N 08516W 4099 07379 0370 -146 -338 330017 019 029 000 00
011700 2701N 08513W 4099 07379 0369 -145 -339 328016 016 028 000 00
$$
;

[SFLcane]

You need to get up with the times, even the radar loops are slower than the GOES16 1 minute jobs.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-10

Moving near due north and IR improving by the minute.

well I agree satellite looks to be a slow north drift.. my statement still holds.. that sat loop is two hours long and its barely moved it will not make the 6z position unless it picks up more speed than forecast..

anyone have a long loop.. like the past 4 hours of radar ?

sat apperance is def better.. but wont RI with that inner eyewall still there.

The 12Z Euro says you'll see an abrupt turn shortly with the 2AM EDT position clearly NNW of the 8PM position. Let's see if this happens.

I'd venture to say a slow NNW movement can't go much further west

[ozonepete]

I take an hour away.. come back and its still just drifting.. well thats disconcerting.

Haha you know what's happening. It hit the wall. Lost westward steering from the subtropical ridge and after a brief drift or loop will cut north. Minor chance it goes more north but 90% odds it goes NNW. SW coast of FL is likely target. They are hopefully locked down now.

[Aric Dunn]

what was the last recon fix.. ? coords

[poof121]

Two Friends Rooftop in Key West Cam

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

[Maineman]

No doubt it is

https://weather.us/satellite/812-w-236-n/satellite-water-vapor-superhd-5min.html#play

[gatorcane]

Really blowing here in Boca, gusts must be in the 50-60 range and getting stronger. Also strange there is actually some thunder too.