ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[terstorm1012]

9pm position update has her up to 125mph

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/fling40/status/906673984728641536




Brandon Fling @fling40
Pressure continues to drop at the @NWSKeyWest office. Winds from the 00z show a substantial increase. Staff working hard! #flwx #KeyWest
8:21 PM - Sep 9, 2017

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon on the way. Should have some solid passes of an intensifying storm.

That, or the continuation of dropping pressures with the winds still on the lower end in comparison, will be a interesting pass to see what she is up to.

If the inner eye wall continues to degrade, I believe the outer eye wall will begin really pick up intensity and winds will begin catching up to pressure drops.

[Meteorcane]

9pm position update has her up to 125mph

I don't know why no recon data to support that (heck 120 mph is probably generous right now but I am fine with them keeping it a major so people don't let their guard down).

[meriland29]

She really looks interesting the last few frames, not sure what to think on that...

[ConvergenceZone]

9pm position update has her up to 125mph

That's already her current speed.

[meriland29]

9pm position update has her up to 125mph

That's already her current speed.

Huh? She was down to 120 the last NHC advisory, she is up 5 now this advisory.

[ConvergenceZone]

9pm position update has her up to 125mph

I don't know why no recon data to support that (heck 120 mph is probably generous right now but I am fine with them keeping it a major so people don't let their guard down).

Satellite presentation easily shows 125mph if not higher

[NDG]

Varadero, earlier this afternoon as Irma made that wobble towards the most famous beach in Cuba, video sent to a friend of ours from her sister vacationing down there.



Link: https://youtu.be/TJVM2YSr_kg

[meriland29]

9pm position update has her up to 125mph

I don't know why no recon data to support that (heck 120 mph is probably generous right now but I am fine with them keeping it a major so people don't let their guard down).

Satellite presentation easily shows 125mph if not higher

Well, yeah, but looks can be deceiving unless recon seconds that opinion. She has looked mighty healthy since the early afternoon, and the winds are just slightly now corresponding.

[tailgater]

sure looks like it is pulling away from the Cuban coast with this radar loop
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Thanks Frank that is way better than NOAA radar.

Another good radar for a longer duration view.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
Click on the 2KM then radar 48 or 96

[AtlanticWind]

Wobbled due north ,hope it's a wobble

[ConvergenceZone]

9pm position update has her up to 125mph

That's already her current speed.

Huh? She was down to 120 the last NHC advisory, she is up 5 now this advisory.

Weather Channel shows 125mph as of 9pm EDT

[SEASON_CANCELED]

lutz florida. just had a 44mph gust. how?? Storm is so far away. Thinking i need to leave right now.

[ZX12R]

I will repost something I wrote from earlier. Please read

These are the most dangerous types of storms. They lose their sex appeal and some of the younger ones (and unfortunately some who should know better) suddenly become expert hurricane forecasters and think the danger is over. Ike was a great example, with the huge windfield and massive surge when it finally lumbered onshore.

If you've come here to post about how this won't be so bad, or to argue with mets, or to criticize the NHC you will find posting privileges lost pretty quickly. This is not a platform to spread your sudden expertise or anger about a forecast not working out the way you wanted. Irma is a very dangerous storm and this is not the time to downplay it.

John 12:8. The poor (forecasters) you will always have among you, but you will not always have tolakram.

[johngaltfla]

I take an hour away.. come back and its still just drifting.. well thats disconcerting.

Haha you know what's happening. It hit the wall. Lost westward steering from the subtropical ridge and after a brief drift or loop will cut north. Minor chance it goes more north but 90% odds it goes NNW. SW coast of FL is likely target. They are hopefully locked down now.

As good as we can be Pete, as good as we can be.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100127
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 10 20170910
011730 2659N 08511W 4098 07383 0370 -142 -342 322016 017 027 000 00
011800 2657N 08509W 4101 07375 0369 -142 -346 332015 016 026 000 00
011830 2656N 08506W 4097 07383 0370 -140 -350 335014 014 026 000 00
011900 2654N 08504W 4100 07379 0370 -140 -352 338012 014 026 000 00
011930 2653N 08502W 4098 07380 0368 -140 -355 335012 013 026 000 00
012000 2651N 08459W 4099 07379 0369 -142 -358 345014 015 027 000 00
012030 2650N 08457W 4098 07380 0368 -145 -357 350017 018 026 000 00
012100 2648N 08455W 4098 07380 0368 -145 -353 349019 019 026 000 00
012130 2647N 08452W 4099 07379 0369 -145 -346 353019 019 026 000 00
012200 2645N 08450W 4098 07380 0370 -145 -344 358019 019 026 000 00
012230 2643N 08448W 4099 07379 0369 -145 -344 000019 019 026 000 00
012300 2642N 08445W 4098 07379 0368 -142 -347 357018 018 026 000 00
012330 2640N 08443W 4099 07376 0367 -138 -352 350018 018 024 000 00
012400 2639N 08441W 4098 07379 0367 -137 -359 343019 019 025 000 00
012430 2637N 08438W 4100 07375 0367 -140 -365 342019 019 025 000 00
012500 2636N 08436W 4098 07378 0367 -139 -370 346019 019 027 000 00
012530 2634N 08434W 4098 07378 0367 -135 -373 342019 020 028 000 00
012600 2633N 08431W 4100 07376 0368 -132 -375 351018 019 029 000 00
012630 2631N 08429W 4099 07378 0368 -129 -376 352017 019 029 000 00
012700 2629N 08427W 4098 07379 0368 -129 -378 356017 018 029 000 00
$$

[ConvergenceZone]

That's already her current speed.

Huh? She was down to 120 the last NHC advisory, she is up 5 now this advisory. Maybe she went down to 120mph for a brief time and I just missed it

Weather Channel shows 125mph as of 9pm EDT

[meriland29]

Will recon be flying in throughout the night?

[Meteorcane]

Based on radial velocities I suspect flight level winds will be marginally higher, is convection intense enough to see those translate to the sfc though?