ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Texashawk]

So if it stalled out would that affect the track more north or west? Or neither?

[Alyono]

Very strong winds found by plane.
057 049 009 00

of course they did, that's what the oil rigs have been reporting. of course, those winds were during a descent, so they will likely not be used

Seen some private advisories that are indicating a significantly stronger storm than what NHC showed

[davidiowx]

Tropics Watch just posted this video:
 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/877195305082658817

[RL3AO]

The center looks too exposed to be named yet imo. Doesn't there have to be steady convection over the LLC to be named?

Just needs "organized and deep convection", which IMO this has. I'd argue it was only missing the well-defined center, which I think it now has. Other opinions my vary.

[Tireman4]

Tropics Watch just posted this video:
 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/877195305082658817

Hey..Hey..I know that guy....that is my pool guy James...

[Frank P]

The center looks too exposed to be named yet imo. Doesn't there have to be steady convection over the LLC to be named?

Just needs "organized and deep convection", which IMO this has. I'd argue it was only missing the well-defined center, which I think it now has. Other opinions my vary.

Well the center attm is more robust now than every before... still naked... still shear.... still not moving much... still a rain maker... but fun to track regardless...

[Ivanhater]

12z models showing north central gulf coast getting the heaviest rain over the next 2 days

[txwatcher91]

There is a small patch of low to 0 shear just to the west of our system. It seems the high res models want to really increase the strength on Wednesday as it moves west/northwest.

[RL3AO]

Increased convergence has developed this capped cumulus on the northwest side of the low. Can it break the cap and develop deep convection on the west side?

[Stormcenter]

Looks like the center is trying to reform/move under the deep convection again.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

[HurricaneBrain]

I'm not seeing a center reformation. Defined center seems to be evident away from deep convection, toward the west on that loop. Looks like convection is beginning to form and wrap around the west side of CoC.

Looks like the center is trying to reform/move under the deep convection again.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

[RL3AO]

Reminder - The 1-minute GOES-16 images are up and running on COD!


http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... o2-02-24-1

Here's a 90-minute loop of 1-minue imagery. It's quite something!\

Note: 20 MB in size


http://i.imgur.com/n5dGhsX.gif

[Steve]

Rain shield is starting to overspread our area. I just walked outside, and there are small (tropical) raindrops and winds starting to gust into the teens and low 20's. I'm not sure we get the bulk of the rain as some of the different models last night were indicating the MS Coast, AL Coast and South MS and the western FL Panhandle. I still think we get 3-5" at a minimum, though the surge from offshore kind of slowed last night. If that repeats tonight, it really will depend on who is left under the eastern side feeder moisture as to who possibly gets clobbered, if anyone.

[RL3AO]

You can start to see the weaker upper level winds near the Upper Texas coast in the high cirrus clouds. The 200mb winds go from SW at 40 to 50kt over the NGOM to SE at 10 to 25kt around the upper low at the TX Coast.

[Tireman4]

You can start to see the weaker upper level winds near the Upper Texas coast in the high cirrus clouds. The 200mb winds go from SW at 40 to 50kt over the NGOM to SE at 10 to 25kt around the upper low at the TX Coast.

Just an observation or do you see the start of something?

[weathaguyry]

As of 16:52 UTC Jun 20, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 25.53°N 90.92°W
Bearing: 225° at 162 kt
Altitude: 309 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 32 kt at 353°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

164300 2554N 09035W 9662 00302 //// +235 //// 118004 004 013 001 01
164330 2553N 09036W 9663 00301 //// +235 //// 140003 004 014 000 01
164400 2551N 09036W 9662 00301 //// +240 //// 166004 004 014 000 01
164430 2550N 09036W 9663 00300 //// +240 //// 184003 004 013 000 01
164500 2548N 09036W 9664 00300 //// +236 //// 204002 003 013 000 05
164530 2547N 09036W 9664 00300 //// +235 //// 215001 002 014 000 05
164600 2546N 09037W 9661 00301 //// +233 //// 179001 001 013 000 01
164630 2544N 09039W 9662 00301 //// +234 //// 237001 001 014 000 01
164700 2543N 09040W 9664 00297 //// +235 //// 325002 004 014 000 01
164730 2542N 09041W 9662 00298 //// +236 //// 341006 007 014 000 01
164800 2541N 09043W 9662 00300 //// +235 //// 347011 012 014 000 01
164830 2540N 09044W 9664 00297 //// +235 //// 347013 013 012 001 01
164900 2539N 09045W 9665 00300 //// +235 //// 356015 015 012 000 01
164930 2538N 09047W 9662 00301 //// +235 //// 356016 017 017 000 01
165000 2537N 09048W 9659 00304 //// +233 //// 348020 021 019 000 01
165030 2536N 09050W 9663 00300 //// +235 //// 347021 022 020 000 01
165100 2535N 09051W 9662 00302 //// +239 //// 349022 022 021 000 01
165130 2534N 09052W 9662 00302 //// +235 //// 351025 027 024 001 01
165200 2533N 09054W 9661 00304 //// +240 //// 356029 031 024 001 01
165230 2532N 09055W 9656 00309 //// +230 //// 353032 032 019 003 05
165300 2530N 09054W 9661 00306 //// +231 //// 348027 030 025 000 01
165330 2530N 09052W 9662 00304 //// +235 //// 341021 024 024 001 01
165400 2529N 09051W 9662 00303 //// +235 //// 338019 020 025 001 01
165430 2528N 09049W 9662 00303 //// +235 //// 328019 020 022 000 01
165500 2527N 09047W 9662 00303 //// +234 //// 322019 019 020 001 01
165530 2527N 09047W 9662 00303 //// +232 //// 310017 018 019 001 01
165600 2525N 09044W 9667 00300 //// +233 //// 298015 016 016 000 01
165630 2524N 09043W 9662 00304 //// +232 //// 289015 016 018 000 01
165700 2523N 09041W 9660 00306 //// +230 //// 282017 017 018 000 01
165730 2522N 09040W 9663 00304 //// +230 //// 271017 017 018 001 01
165800 2521N 09038W 9660 00307 //// +230 //// 268018 019 019 000 01
165830 2520N 09036W 9663 00306 //// +230 //// 266019 021 019 000 01
165900 2519N 09035W 9662 00306 //// +230 //// 263021 023 018 000 01
165930 2518N 09033W 9663 00306 //// +230 //// 262021 021 018 000 01
170000 2518N 09032W 9663 00308 //// +236 //// 265020 021 018 001 01
170030 2517N 09030W 9663 00309 //// +227 //// 253019 020 017 001 01
170100 2516N 09029W 9662 00312 //// +226 //// 247021 022 018 001 01
170130 2515N 09027W 9663 00309 //// +225 //// 249022 022 020 000 01
170200 2514N 09026W 9664 00309 //// +225 //// 249022 023 020 000 01
170230 2513N 09024W 9659 00317 //// +225 //// 247023 024 019 001 01

[weathaguyry]

These links should automatically update, so I will leave them on this post for reference. If there ends up being a problem, I'll use imgur if necessary

Wide View: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-0203A-INVEST.png

Smaller View: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-0203A-INVEST_zoom.png

Flight Data: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-0203A-INVEST_timeseries.png

[Hammy]

Given the structure and appearance, I'm not sure why this can't be declared a subtropical system while it interacts with the ULL.

[RL3AO]

You can start to see the weaker upper level winds near the Upper Texas coast in the high cirrus clouds. The 200mb winds go from SW at 40 to 50kt over the NGOM to SE at 10 to 25kt around the upper low at the TX Coast.

Just an observation or do you see the start of something?

Just an ob. Might help make the system not as one-sided by tomorrow, but it's still gonna be heavily sheared.

[GCANE]

Recon logging west winds now.