ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[marionstorm]

Thank you. Hopefully it avoids my part of Florida. If it's going to Texas I should be good.

[Blown Away]

[wxman57]

Updated sat pic with obs. Buoy 41043 near 21.1N / 64.9W now has a light WNW wind. Pressure up to 1016.4mb, though. Convection dropping off. Remains a weak, disorganized swirl this afternoon.

[Siker]

Looks like ~5/20 GFS ensemble members redevelop this in the Gulf, two sub-1000mb.

Edit: Make that three sub-1000mb with one little 970mb member into Mississippi.

[SouthDadeFish]

I don't recall a recon mission scheduled for something not even mentioned in the TWO.... Very odd to say the least.

[wxman57]

I don't recall a recon mission scheduled for something not even mentioned in the TWO.... Very odd to say the least.

Yes, very strange. Perhaps Stewart forgot to include it? I was expecting them to say 20-30%.

[TheStormExpert]

So I see they reactivated 04L, along with scheduled Recon for tomorrow afternoon yet no mention in the TWO?

[Alyono]

or their minds changed once the convection collapsed?

[Aric Dunn]

from the buoy.. according to this.. the center is approaching the buoy from the east might go right over it.

07 10 1:30 pm NNW 5.8 7.8 - - - - 30.00 - 78.8 82.8 75.9 - - -
07 10 1:20 pm NW 7.8 11.7 - - - - 30.01 - 79.0 82.8 75.7 - - -
07 10 1:10 pm WNW 5.8 9.7 - - - - 30.01 - 79.7 82.9 77.0 - - -
07 10 1:00 pm W 7.8 11.7 - - - - 30.01 +0.01 79.7 82.9 77.2 - - -
07 10 12:50 pm W 7.8 13.6 4.9 9 6.3 E 30.01 - 80.4 82.9 77.4 - - -
07 10 12:40 pm WSW 7.8 11.7 4.9 - 6.3 E 30.01 - 82.0 82.9 77.2 - - -
07 10 12:30 pm SW 7.8 11.7 - - - - 30.01 - 82.8 82.9 77.0 - - -
07 10 12:20 pm SSW 5.8 9.7 - - - - 30.01 - 82.6 82.9 77.4 - - -
07 10 12:10 pm SW 5.8 7.8 - - - - 30.02 - 82.4 82.9 77.2 - - -
07 10 12:00 pm SSW 7.8 9.7 - - - - 30.02 +0.01 82.2 82.9 76.6 - - -
07 10 11:50 am S 7.8 9.7 4.9 9 6.1 E 30.02 - 81.5 82.9 75.0 - - -
07 10 11:40 am S 7.8 9.7 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 82.9 73.0 - - -


though they do seem a little funky.. but we will see.

[KyleEverett]

I'd say its an abundance of caution on their part. Don't want to scare people by putting it into the TWO yet, but are aware of the similarities to a certain past storm.

[gfsperpendicular]

I'd say its an abundance of caution on their part. Don't want to scare people by putting it into the TWO yet, but are aware of the similarities to a certain past storm.

Thankfully, the atmosphere here is much drier.

[tropicwatch]

I can't really discern where the coc is now but the convection is building again.

[MGC]

Still a good bit of dry air to the north of former TD4. Needs to move away from the ULL also. Conditions might improve in a day or two.....MGC

[ROCK]

this is all mid level....see it barfing out flow boundaries...nothing at the surface..that ULL to its NE is helping but I don't think it can give it a LLC though interesting the NHC didn't mention it and no global really does nothing with it..why send RECON? practice? odd

[NDG]

12z Euro is a little stronger with the system with this run, it really closes off a nice circulation once it enters the SE GOM.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro is a little stronger with the system with this run, it really closes off a nice circulation once it enters the SE GOM.

Looks like it develops it right before landfall in SE Louisiana at 144 hours out.

[PTrackerLA]

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I would put chances of regeneration at about 50% for the entire forecast period; I still have my doubts that it will do anything; maybe if it makes it to the gulf.

[GCANE]

12z Euro is a little stronger with the system with this run, it really closes off a nice circulation once it enters the SE GOM.

Looks like it develops it right before landfall in SE Louisiana at 144 hours out.

Abnormally hot water temps in the North GOM.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure starting to fall at the buoy.. winds are back to the west again...