ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

That ULL is getting squeezed, almost has an elliptical look, not circular anymore.

[SoupBone]

Can someone explain how it's possible for a system to not only maintain a TS as far north as San Antonio, but strengthen as well? Does this not seem incredibly absurd to anyone else?

[davidiowx]

Can someone explain how it's possible for a system to not only maintain a TS as far north as San Antonio, but strengthen as well? Does this not seem incredible absurd to anyone else?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect

[Aric Dunn]

Well this is coming together rather quickly.... at this rate ( though rare) upgrade at 11pm.. lol

[Kingarabian]

Well this is coming together rather quickly.... at this rate ( though rare) upgrade at 11pm.. lol

Models had a TD by 11PM.

[SoupBone]

Can someone explain how it's possible for a system to not only maintain a TS as far north as San Antonio, but strengthen as well? Does this not seem incredible absurd to anyone else?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect

Abnormally dry in that area, but normal in most of Texas.

"One source of the brown ocean effect has been identified as the large amount of latent heat that can be released from extremely wet soils."



http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX

[Frank P]

Convection continues to develop near and off to the northwest of the center as it approaches the Gulf...

[stormreader]

To my untrained eye, I think the center has just come off the coast.

[Alyono]

organizing very quickly now. Could be a depression as soon as tonight

[stormreader]

To my untrained eye, I think the center has just come off the coast.

Looking at clouds forming immediately now around a center which is half on and half off the coast. Exiting now I believe, Probably won't take long at all for upgrade. Might just bypass depression and go straight to tropical storm.

[Sciencerocks]

To my untrained eye, I think the center has just come off the coast.

Very close. I'd place the center near that blow up of convection near the coast. I'd expect this to develop quickly...

Chances of becoming a hurricane are probably 70% within my estimation before landfall.

[hd44]

organizing very quickly now. Could be a depression as soon as tonight

Which is closer to the Ukmet aggressive 12z run.

[tolakram]

Friendly reminder folks.

When these storms are threatening the last thing we need are snide comments, one liners, or blanket accusations. Nerves are going to be frayed and tempers short. PLEASE make sure your posts are on topic and not accusatory. Discuss the storm, not each other.

If you find a post you think is offensive DO NOT REPLY, REPORT using the exclamation button at the top right of each post.

Thanks for your cooperation.

[Aric Dunn]

decent west wind .. circ looks close to being fulling closed off. not too much longer once its fully offshore..

[SouthDadeFish]

organizing very quickly now. Could be a depression as soon as tonight

Agreed. I wonder if the sea breeze helped close off the circulation on the SW side. Regardless, I think it's well on its way to being a TC at this point.

[floridasun78]

twc saying ull helping ex harvey

[Nimbus]

decent west wind .. circ looks close to being fulling closed off. not too much longer once its fully offshore..

http://www.sailwx.info/tmp/599c96a5_1f40_15.png

At the .5 meter resolution you can see the tiny circulation center under a hot tower.

[Aric Dunn]

There could easily be a special advisory before 11 if this trend continues..

[stormreader]

There could easily be a special advisory before 11 if this trend continues..

I think there needs to be, Aric. It's time for a wake-up call for media outlets and coastal residents all along the western gulf coast. T-storms have come out of nowhere forming a concentric ring around a developing inner core, even before the center has completed exited the coast. Someone posted 70% chance of hurricane. I think from the look of the storm and the ventilation being provided by the ULL, that's conservative. I'll leave it at that for now.

[ronyan]

Just curious why has the NHC not labeled this potential TC at this point?