ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Siker]

Euro hasn't done particularly well especially beyond 6-7 days so this idea of it turning ENE and getting back into the Gulf needs more models runs before it is believable. Most models runs are into Mexico with some into extreme south Texas:

https://s4.postimg.org/55tiamnr1/09_L_tracks_18z.png

Yes it needs more runs and or other models for support but the GFS has Harry meandering around central and southern TX from Friday through Tuesday, at least agreeing with the Euro that the steering will collapse during that time.

Yes Sir, it could be a fun week to track Howard as it enters the Gulf...

Interestingly a few GFS runs have shown Hank surviving as a powerful low over Texas for 3-4 days, though he never re-enters the Gulf.

[stormreader]

wow what a north shift and the 12z EURO had this a few runs ago...

Yeah, Rock. That Euro run sniffed out something, so that even when it flipped back, knowing that the ridging in the gom might not be secure, it caught the attention of some on the board.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

This will likely stall near Texas because of weak steering !

[jaguars_22]

Which could be good for some of us in Texas but not for whoever is in line towards the NE.

[stormreader]

Also didn't know if the many hurricane followers on this board were familiar with a storm which took a somewhat comparable track as forecast by that latest Euro run. Racer's Storm 1837.

October 1837 – The Racer's Storm becomes the first hurricane on record to affect the entire Texas coastline. It first strikes near Brownsville on October 1, where it destroys most of the ships on Brazos Island.[4] Turning northeastward into the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane approaches Galveston on October 6, bringing a storm tide of at least 6 ft (1.8 m) which floods all of Galveston Island.[5] The storm destroys most of the buildings in Galveston, and across the coast, ships are washed ashore up to 3 miles (5 km) inland. It continues northeastward and leaves the state near Sabine Pass, after causing at least two deaths in the state.[4]

What it doesn't say here is that after skirting the Texas coast it turned and moved along the entire La. coast affecting Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans. Of course it was an October storm. But the track makes it one for the ages. The Euro run brought this storm to mind.

[ROCK]

getting in the range of the 18Z NAM which does good with CONUS features in the short range. Not so much tropical entities but it does show a nice digging trof thats able to pull Harvey up out of the BOC and into Texas. ponder away...waiting on my EURO run tonight....

[caneman]

The Euro along with most other models have struggled mightely this year. If a model flip flops enough on track, intensity, etc... you're bound to be right eventually right? Having said that, I'll wait for some model and run to run consistency before getting too amped up. We've already seen South Mexico hits, North Mexico hits and complete dissipation model runs just recently

[SoupBone]

Tomorrow's Euro will be the one that I really pay attention to. If tonight's mirrors or comes close to mirroring the today's run, I'll start to really get concerned for Texas.

Horace would be renamed Allison 2.0

[ROCK]

yeah I was pretty amped up about this guy for a few days now.,,got my EURO run I was looking for a few days ago and been screaming climo...when every one was hollering MX....lol

game on IMO...just hope he stays behaved intensity wise...

[HurricaneBrain]

For what it's worth, here is the track The Racer's Hurricane took:

Definitely looks comparable to Hector in the Euro's latest run.

Also didn't know if the many hurricane followers on this board were familiar with a storm which took a somewhat comparable track as forecast by that latest Euro run. Racer's Storm 1837.

October 1837 – The Racer's Storm becomes the first hurricane on record to affect the entire Texas coastline. It first strikes near Brownsville on October 1, where it destroys most of the ships on Brazos Island.[4] Turning northeastward into the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane approaches Galveston on October 6, bringing a storm tide of at least 6 ft (1.8 m) which floods all of Galveston Island.[5] The storm destroys most of the buildings in Galveston, and across the coast, ships are washed ashore up to 3 miles (5 km) inland. It continues northeastward and leaves the state near Sabine Pass, after causing at least two deaths in the state.[4]

What it doesn't say here is that after skirting the Texas coast it turned and moved along the entire La. coast affecting Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans. Of course it was an October storm. But the track makes it one for the ages. The Euro run brought this storm to mind.

[Steve]

NAM has drifted a bit farther west than just coming up north off the Yucatan with Horatio's remnants. It's moving more toward a harmonic convergence with the other models.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

[msp]

thru 30hr, 18z GFS coming in slightly stronger than 12z with the ridging over the south

especially noticeable compared to 18z NAM

[Frank P]

NAM has drifted a bit farther west than just coming up north off the Yucatan with Horatio's remnants. It's moving more toward a harmonic convergence with the other models.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

Well if it stays out that far in the Gulf certainly could crank up somewhat if upper level winds behave... kinda looks to be meandering around some what at the end of the run...

[Christiana]

wow! Thanks for posting the info on The Racer's Hurricane, old as I am and I have never heard of this one, what a nightmare! Dang Harpy better not pull such shanigans.
edit: Shenanigans / edit: Horvy

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS bit more NE through 54 hours compared to the previous run:

[ColdMiser123]

A touch north with a better defined 850 hPa vorticity maximum through 66 hours compared to 12z.

[PTrackerLA]

Yep another NE shift out to 72hrs on 18z GFS, trend continues...

[cycloneye]

84 hours.

[Steve]

A touch north with a better defined 850 hPa vorticity maximum through 66 hours compared to 12z.

Looks like maybe it wants to make a Bee-line to south padre island.

[Cpv17]

Very scary trend for us here in TX. GFS looks like it wants to take this in between Corpus and Brownsville on this run so far.