ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

I doubt theres an outright upgrade at 11:00. Might suggest Irma is getting a little stronger though.

[TheAustinMan]

A look at where recon for tonight is currently located, with satellite imagery and radar out of Key West overlaid.

Image: 1.62MB

[AdamFirst]

its stronger.. droppler velocities showing 115 to 120 plus kts now..

Weagle on WPTV in West Palm suggested an upgrade back to Category 4 at 11 PM.

It'll be a tough call with recon still a good 20 minutes from the eye. I doubt they make a dramatic move without hard data. That said, if they're confident based on satellite it does make sense to get it out there for the 11pm news cycle.

The Doppler velocities have been pretty accurate today, even with the center farther out. Doppler measured 120 MPH earlier and was reciprocated by earlier reconnaissance. I can understand waiting for recon but it does look darn good right now.

[Blown Away]

Definite slow WNW... Might be farther W before NNW turn...
http://www.wpbf.com/weather/radar

[MrJames]

Poor Cuba. They're just getting pummeled while Irma just hangs out. I wonder what kind of rain totals that coast is getting.

[NDG]

That's a lot of discrete rotating cells offshore that have to be watched for waterspouts & tornadoes as they come onshore.

[Cee22]

The wind is getting loud and picking up in Melbourne. Kind of surprised. Just goes to show what a beast Irma is

[tolakram]

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fm.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DhGD1byu7gJc&h=ATMHYMTUzJDo2ghRl4f83TLVxN8ncPBt3XFXLWd5VGJBEnKimFd-KMdK2UR39zieqW0Z_EBbZfhkMKIBCiinW6daOKJ_7iggXnZNKGGOTMfdVtRG1B1dtn-2EepecgFCl6uo0gKey West webcam still working.

Someone plugging "2 friends roof-top" for "likes"? Just askin...

Direct youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

[chaser1]

Okay, all this wobble watching is making me crazy. Think I'll go on over to chill in the Winter Weather Forum to give my eyes a break lol

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100227
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 16 20170910
021730 2414N 08148W 6963 03001 //// +092 //// 062072 073 058 007 05
021800 2412N 08146W 6963 02996 //// +091 //// 068071 075 059 012 01
021830 2411N 08145W 6968 02986 //// +096 //// 065063 068 062 012 05
021900 2410N 08144W 6967 02983 //// +095 //// 060060 061 062 010 01
021930 2409N 08143W 6967 02981 //// +092 //// 059062 062 063 009 01
022000 2408N 08142W 6967 02975 //// +096 //// 059061 063 060 006 01
022030 2407N 08140W 6965 02977 9829 +106 //// 056059 062 063 006 01
022100 2406N 08139W 6969 02969 9830 +098 //// 054060 061 063 006 01
022130 2405N 08138W 6966 02968 9820 +106 //// 054062 062 062 008 01
022200 2403N 08136W 6967 02963 9808 +114 +106 053064 065 061 004 00
022230 2402N 08135W 6968 02958 9803 +113 +110 051063 064 059 008 03
022300 2401N 08134W 6969 02952 9800 +110 +110 049064 065 057 005 00
022330 2400N 08133W 6967 02948 9794 +112 +101 051066 066 054 003 00
022400 2359N 08131W 6966 02946 9789 +110 +102 051065 066 054 002 00
022430 2358N 08130W 6966 02940 9782 +114 +107 052066 066 057 001 00
022500 2356N 08129W 6967 02932 9776 +113 +111 052067 068 056 002 00
022530 2355N 08128W 6966 02929 9770 +114 +108 051070 071 056 001 03
022600 2354N 08126W 6963 02924 9764 +112 +107 050071 072 058 002 00
022630 2353N 08125W 6969 02913 9752 +116 +102 050074 075 058 003 00
022700 2351N 08124W 6970 02901 9740 +119 +104 050074 075 058 003 00
$$
;

[AdamFirst]

That's a lot of discrete rotating cells offshore that have to be watched for waterspouts & tornadoes as they come onshore.

Been dodging them in St. Lucie County for most of the afternoon and evening.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[dukeblue219]

Edit -- looks like I jumped the gun a bit while recon was passing through a strong band.

-----

Clear double wind maxima at flight level and sfmr

URNT15 KNHC 100227
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 16 20170910
021730 2414N 08148W 6963 03001 //// +092 //// 062072 073 058 007 05
021800 2412N 08146W 6963 02996 //// +091 //// 068071 075 059 012 01
021830 2411N 08145W 6968 02986 //// +096 //// 065063 068 062 012 05
021900 2410N 08144W 6967 02983 //// +095 //// 060060 061 062 010 01
021930 2409N 08143W 6967 02981 //// +092 //// 059062 062 063 009 01
022000 2408N 08142W 6967 02975 //// +096 //// 059061 063 060 006 01
022030 2407N 08140W 6965 02977 9829 +106 //// 056059 062 063 006 01
022100 2406N 08139W 6969 02969 9830 +098 //// 054060 061 063 006 01
022130 2405N 08138W 6966 02968 9820 +106 //// 054062 062 062 008 01
022200 2403N 08136W 6967 02963 9808 +114 +106 053064 065 061 004 00
022230 2402N 08135W 6968 02958 9803 +113 +110 051063 064 059 008 03
022300 2401N 08134W 6969 02952 9800 +110 +110 049064 065 057 005 00
022330 2400N 08133W 6967 02948 9794 +112 +101 051066 066 054 003 00
022400 2359N 08131W 6966 02946 9789 +110 +102 051065 066 054 002 00
022430 2358N 08130W 6966 02940 9782 +114 +107 052066 066 057 001 00
022500 2356N 08129W 6967 02932 9776 +113 +111 052067 068 056 002 00
022530 2355N 08128W 6966 02929 9770 +114 +108 051070 071 056 001 03
022600 2354N 08126W 6963 02924 9764 +112 +107 050071 072 058 002 00
022630 2353N 08125W 6969 02913 9752 +116 +102 050074 075 058 003 00
022700 2351N 08124W 6970 02901 9740 +119 +104 050074 075 058 003 00

[Frank P]

Definite slow WNW... Might be farther W before NNW turn...
http://www.wpbf.com/weather/radar

Obviously clear to me on that radar... it.is.moving.

[NDG]

Eye is looking better and better.

[SoupBone]

Poor Cuba. They're just getting pummeled while Irma just hangs out. I wonder what kind of rain totals that coast is getting.

Reminds me of Harvey. Anyone have any live rainfall totals for CUBA?

[Meteorcane]

Clear double wind maxima at flight level and sfmr

URNT15 KNHC 100227
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 16 20170910
021730 2414N 08148W 6963 03001 //// +092 //// 062072 073 058 007 05
021800 2412N 08146W 6963 02996 //// +091 //// 068071 075 059 012 01
021830 2411N 08145W 6968 02986 //// +096 //// 065063 068 062 012 05
021900 2410N 08144W 6967 02983 //// +095 //// 060060 061 062 010 01
021930 2409N 08143W 6967 02981 //// +092 //// 059062 062 063 009 01
022000 2408N 08142W 6967 02975 //// +096 //// 059061 063 060 006 01
022030 2407N 08140W 6965 02977 9829 +106 //// 056059 062 063 006 01
022100 2406N 08139W 6969 02969 9830 +098 //// 054060 061 063 006 01
022130 2405N 08138W 6966 02968 9820 +106 //// 054062 062 062 008 01
022200 2403N 08136W 6967 02963 9808 +114 +106 053064 065 061 004 00
022230 2402N 08135W 6968 02958 9803 +113 +110 051063 064 059 008 03
022300 2401N 08134W 6969 02952 9800 +110 +110 049064 065 057 005 00
022330 2400N 08133W 6967 02948 9794 +112 +101 051066 066 054 003 00
022400 2359N 08131W 6966 02946 9789 +110 +102 051065 066 054 002 00
022430 2358N 08130W 6966 02940 9782 +114 +107 052066 066 057 001 00
022500 2356N 08129W 6967 02932 9776 +113 +111 052067 068 056 002 00
022530 2355N 08128W 6966 02929 9770 +114 +108 051070 071 056 001 03
022600 2354N 08126W 6963 02924 9764 +112 +107 050071 072 058 002 00
022630 2353N 08125W 6969 02913 9752 +116 +102 050074 075 058 003 00
022700 2351N 08124W 6970 02901 9740 +119 +104 050074 075 058 003 00

The real telling sign will be the next set or two of obs when they reach the eyewall, I suspect flight level winds 115-120 knots with a much more subtle double wind maximum if radar can be believed.

[FLpanhandle91]

Clear double wind maxima at flight level and sfmr

URNT15 KNHC 100227
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 16 20170910
021730 2414N 08148W 6963 03001 //// +092 //// 062072 073 058 007 05
021800 2412N 08146W 6963 02996 //// +091 //// 068071 075 059 012 01
021830 2411N 08145W 6968 02986 //// +096 //// 065063 068 062 012 05
021900 2410N 08144W 6967 02983 //// +095 //// 060060 061 062 010 01
021930 2409N 08143W 6967 02981 //// +092 //// 059062 062 063 009 01
022000 2408N 08142W 6967 02975 //// +096 //// 059061 063 060 006 01
022030 2407N 08140W 6965 02977 9829 +106 //// 056059 062 063 006 01
022100 2406N 08139W 6969 02969 9830 +098 //// 054060 061 063 006 01
022130 2405N 08138W 6966 02968 9820 +106 //// 054062 062 062 008 01
022200 2403N 08136W 6967 02963 9808 +114 +106 053064 065 061 004 00
022230 2402N 08135W 6968 02958 9803 +113 +110 051063 064 059 008 03
022300 2401N 08134W 6969 02952 9800 +110 +110 049064 065 057 005 00
022330 2400N 08133W 6967 02948 9794 +112 +101 051066 066 054 003 00
022400 2359N 08131W 6966 02946 9789 +110 +102 051065 066 054 002 00
022430 2358N 08130W 6966 02940 9782 +114 +107 052066 066 057 001 00
022500 2356N 08129W 6967 02932 9776 +113 +111 052067 068 056 002 00
022530 2355N 08128W 6966 02929 9770 +114 +108 051070 071 056 001 03
022600 2354N 08126W 6963 02924 9764 +112 +107 050071 072 058 002 00
022630 2353N 08125W 6969 02913 9752 +116 +102 050074 075 058 003 00
022700 2351N 08124W 6970 02901 9740 +119 +104 050074 075 058 003 00

This is due to a heavy band. Not any kind of EWRC.

[galveston-d]

I don't remember seeing lightning or hearing thunder during Wilma or Jeanne and Frances. I did during Mathew.

Big band about to move into southern Palm Beach county. 60mph winds

Same here with Matthew. I heard a big clap of thunder, and thought to myself, that's odd, don't remember hearing thunder in any of the other hurricanes that I've experienced.

Can lightning happen with larger hurricanes when they are intensifying ... I recall reading that somewhere...

[NDG]

Key West now gusting to 67 mph at the airport.

Conditions at: KEYW observed 10 September 2017 01:53 UTC
Temperature: missing
Dewpoint: missing
Pressure (altimeter): 29.31 inches Hg (992.6 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 992.6 mb]
Winds: from the NNE (20 degrees) at 36 MPH (31 knots; 16.1 m/s)
gusting to 67 MPH (58 knots; 30.2 m/s)
Visibility: 2.50 miles (4.02 km)
Ceiling: 2300 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1700 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2300 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2900 feet AGL
Present Weather: -RA (light rain)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance