ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100237
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 17 20170910
022730 2350N 08123W 6968 02892 9735 +112 +106 052075 077 058 005 00
022800 2349N 08122W 6963 02889 9726 +112 +095 053079 079 062 005 00
022830 2347N 08121W 6963 02875 9713 +109 //// 051081 082 061 007 01
022900 2346N 08120W 6972 02852 9702 +108 +107 052084 084 066 006 00
022930 2345N 08119W 6957 02856 9700 +095 //// 052086 090 065 006 05
023000 2343N 08117W 6972 02819 9677 +097 //// 051092 093 071 011 01
023030 2342N 08116W 6967 02806 //// +099 //// 050091 092 075 009 01
023100 2340N 08115W 6964 02788 //// +099 //// 047094 097 080 008 01
023130 2339N 08114W 6975 02747 9594 +110 //// 046098 100 083 021 01
023200 2337N 08113W 6942 02751 //// +103 //// 044097 106 090 038 05
023230 2336N 08112W 6896 02774 //// +114 //// 034093 094 095 006 01
023300 2334N 08111W 6946 02682 9437 +144 +143 034090 094 096 004 00
023330 2333N 08110W 6980 02595 9406 +136 //// 035082 087 085 005 05
023400 2331N 08108W 6961 02585 9350 +149 //// 032058 076 066 015 01
023430 2330N 08107W 6967 02559 9322 +165 +149 035034 049 049 001 00
023500 2329N 08105W 6970 02549 9314 +165 +143 052015 027 029 001 03
023530 2328N 08104W 6967 02548 9317 +159 +137 057007 011 018 000 00
023600 2326N 08103W 6970 02542 9317 +156 +142 242003 008 016 000 00
023630 2325N 08101W 6967 02550 9317 +156 +144 239021 029 015 001 03
023700 2324N 08100W 6969 02555 9323 +160 +149 227044 049 046 003 00
$$
;

Pressure is slightly up compared to the last pass and we have 106 knot flight level and 96 knt smrf.

[NDG]

Winds and pressure seem to be holding steady since the last recon.

023130 2339N 08114W 6975 02747 9594 +110 //// 046098 100 083 021 01
023200 2337N 08113W 6942 02751 //// +103 //// 044097 106 090 038 05
023230 2336N 08112W 6896 02774 //// +114 //// 034093 094 095 006 01
023300 2334N 08111W 6946 02682 9437 +144 +143 034090 094 096 004 00
023330 2333N 08110W 6980 02595 9406 +136 //// 035082 087 085 005 05
023400 2331N 08108W 6961 02585 9350 +149 //// 032058 076 066 015 01
023430 2330N 08107W 6967 02559 9322 +165 +149 035034 049 049 001 00
023500 2329N 08105W 6970 02549 9314 +165 +143 052015 027 029 001 03

[dukeblue219]

Clear double wind maxima at flight level and sfmr

URNT15 KNHC 100227
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 16 20170910
021730 2414N 08148W 6963 03001 //// +092 //// 062072 073 058 007 05
021800 2412N 08146W 6963 02996 //// +091 //// 068071 075 059 012 01
021830 2411N 08145W 6968 02986 //// +096 //// 065063 068 062 012 05
021900 2410N 08144W 6967 02983 //// +095 //// 060060 061 062 010 01
021930 2409N 08143W 6967 02981 //// +092 //// 059062 062 063 009 01
022000 2408N 08142W 6967 02975 //// +096 //// 059061 063 060 006 01
022030 2407N 08140W 6965 02977 9829 +106 //// 056059 062 063 006 01
022100 2406N 08139W 6969 02969 9830 +098 //// 054060 061 063 006 01
022130 2405N 08138W 6966 02968 9820 +106 //// 054062 062 062 008 01
022200 2403N 08136W 6967 02963 9808 +114 +106 053064 065 061 004 00
022230 2402N 08135W 6968 02958 9803 +113 +110 051063 064 059 008 03
022300 2401N 08134W 6969 02952 9800 +110 +110 049064 065 057 005 00
022330 2400N 08133W 6967 02948 9794 +112 +101 051066 066 054 003 00
022400 2359N 08131W 6966 02946 9789 +110 +102 051065 066 054 002 00
022430 2358N 08130W 6966 02940 9782 +114 +107 052066 066 057 001 00
022500 2356N 08129W 6967 02932 9776 +113 +111 052067 068 056 002 00
022530 2355N 08128W 6966 02929 9770 +114 +108 051070 071 056 001 03
022600 2354N 08126W 6963 02924 9764 +112 +107 050071 072 058 002 00
022630 2353N 08125W 6969 02913 9752 +116 +102 050074 075 058 003 00
022700 2351N 08124W 6970 02901 9740 +119 +104 050074 075 058 003 00

This is due to a heavy band. Not any kind of EWRC.

I'll add a note to the original post. Thanks for the correction.

[sponger]

Gonna be a long night. That was our 4th tornado warning tonight in St Lucie.

Weagle on WPTV is picking out the cells with couplets & rotation on radar like fleas on a dog. Long night indeed.

Had our sliding glass door partially uncovered to go out on the patio earlier today, once these warnings started coming in we put them all up.

Yup. That's what I'm watching too. Amazing coverage. Weagle is kicking butt tonight.

Good friends for a long time with James Weiland. Huge respect for that weather team.

[dhweather]

It's 7800 feet up, but I just found 142MPH. I hope she doesn't go RI, but that water is HOT, the outer eyewall looks very good on radar, and is down to about 13 miles, from 15. She is getting a litter further away from Cuba, and seems to be responding.

[1900hurricane]

The outer eyewall is looking much better with the reflectivity ring sharpening up along the entire length. The inner eyewall is probably still screwing with the gradient a little bit, but it doesn't have much life left in it (probably six hours max I think). Irma is overall in better shape than I thought last night after the initial Cuba encounter. This system probably isn't reaching its potential intensity ceiling a Cuba miss would have brought, but in lieu of an impressive upper air environment, it's hard to bet agains some renewed strengthening.

[AdamFirst]

Boynton Beach Police has (temporarily) recalled their officers, as conditions have gotten too dangerous for patrolling.

[FLpanhandle91]

Clear double wind maxima at flight level and sfmr

URNT15 KNHC 100227
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 16 20170910
021730 2414N 08148W 6963 03001 //// +092 //// 062072 073 058 007 05
021800 2412N 08146W 6963 02996 //// +091 //// 068071 075 059 012 01
021830 2411N 08145W 6968 02986 //// +096 //// 065063 068 062 012 05
021900 2410N 08144W 6967 02983 //// +095 //// 060060 061 062 010 01
021930 2409N 08143W 6967 02981 //// +092 //// 059062 062 063 009 01
022000 2408N 08142W 6967 02975 //// +096 //// 059061 063 060 006 01
022030 2407N 08140W 6965 02977 9829 +106 //// 056059 062 063 006 01
022100 2406N 08139W 6969 02969 9830 +098 //// 054060 061 063 006 01
022130 2405N 08138W 6966 02968 9820 +106 //// 054062 062 062 008 01
022200 2403N 08136W 6967 02963 9808 +114 +106 053064 065 061 004 00
022230 2402N 08135W 6968 02958 9803 +113 +110 051063 064 059 008 03
022300 2401N 08134W 6969 02952 9800 +110 +110 049064 065 057 005 00
022330 2400N 08133W 6967 02948 9794 +112 +101 051066 066 054 003 00
022400 2359N 08131W 6966 02946 9789 +110 +102 051065 066 054 002 00
022430 2358N 08130W 6966 02940 9782 +114 +107 052066 066 057 001 00
022500 2356N 08129W 6967 02932 9776 +113 +111 052067 068 056 002 00
022530 2355N 08128W 6966 02929 9770 +114 +108 051070 071 056 001 03
022600 2354N 08126W 6963 02924 9764 +112 +107 050071 072 058 002 00
022630 2353N 08125W 6969 02913 9752 +116 +102 050074 075 058 003 00
022700 2351N 08124W 6970 02901 9740 +119 +104 050074 075 058 003 00

This is due to a heavy band. Not any kind of EWRC.

I'll add a note to the original post. Thanks for the correction.

Also...Go Duke!

[eastcoastFL]

Boynton Beach Police has (temporarily) recalled their officers, as conditions have gotten too dangerous for patrolling.

Beat me to it by a second. Mods can remove my post.

[SouthDadeFish]

Irma's core is getting much better organized. Looks like winds are starting to respond, at least on radar:

 https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/906708236400807936

[bamajammer4eva]

Sharp cutoff to the west of the moisture plume ahead of Irma and dry air over the panhandle. Moisture not advancing west very much at all so far.

Loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

[dukeblue219]

I would really like to see some dropsonde data from the eyewall to check out the winds aloft. The last mission only had a couple drops, perhaps due to land proximity?

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone know why my cell phones aren't signaling the tornado warnings? I'm afraid to go to sleep without knowing I'll have some alarm to grab the kids if another tornado is inbound.

[mrbagyo]

Whoa, superb dual channel outflow.

[Evenstar]

It is crazy here in East Boca. Gusts at least 60mph maybe higher. Lightning is green with thunder. These bands are getting energized by the Gulf Stream. Briefly lost power and foot it back. Other side of street has no power.

I wish lightning would cooperate so you could get a picture of it. I'd love to see that.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Irma's core is getting much better organized. Looks like winds are starting to respond, at least on radar:

 https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/906708236400807936

So it's pretty likely that this is now Cat. 4 again... (maybe)

[BrandonJay21]

Anyone know why my cell phones aren't signaling the tornado warnings? I'm afraid to go to sleep without knowing I'll have some alarm to grab the kids if another tornado is inbound.

If you have an iPhone: "Settings -> Notifications -> Scroll all the way down to Emergency Alerts. Make sure it's on (Green)

[norva]

Likely a cat 4 and with room to grow

[SouthDadeFish]

The eye is starting to clear out on IR.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100247
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 18 20170910
023730 2324N 08057W 6966 02578 9345 +140 //// 221065 078 072 012 01
023800 2323N 08055W 6975 02601 //// +105 //// 215082 083 079 007 01
023830 2323N 08053W 6965 02649 9455 +120 //// 208087 088 099 004 01
023900 2323N 08051W 6967 02676 9471 +124 //// 206093 097 101 020 05
023930 2323N 08049W 6957 02718 //// +100 //// 205104 106 092 040 01
024000 2322N 08048W 6953 02753 //// +093 //// 206104 106 093 037 01
024030 2321N 08046W 6977 02753 //// +094 //// 208103 106 091 017 01
024100 2320N 08045W 6963 02795 9629 +105 //// 207097 099 086 011 01
024130 2320N 08043W 6968 02811 9659 +102 //// 206092 096 082 011 01
024200 2319N 08041W 6967 02830 9681 +098 //// 206089 090 077 010 01
024230 2318N 08040W 6969 02845 9699 +099 //// 204086 088 074 010 01
024300 2318N 08038W 6969 02857 //// +091 //// 205083 085 070 009 05
024330 2317N 08037W 6967 02875 //// +091 //// 206083 085 064 011 01
024400 2316N 08035W 6966 02887 //// +093 //// 204079 081 064 006 01
024430 2315N 08033W 6962 02902 9744 +105 //// 204079 080 062 006 01
024500 2315N 08032W 6972 02899 9751 +109 //// 204077 079 061 002 01
024530 2314N 08030W 6966 02914 9750 +118 +100 204074 076 059 003 00
024600 2313N 08029W 6969 02918 9766 +109 //// 206073 074 058 001 01
024630 2312N 08027W 6965 02926 9771 +109 +108 206073 073 056 002 00
024700 2312N 08025W 6971 02921 9781 +103 //// 208072 073 055 002 01
$$
;

Recon supports about 95-100 knot storm but there could be stronger winds on future passes;