ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I have to disagree with the NHC in the strongest possible terms about this striking as a category 3 and not a category 4 hurricane. One cannot ignore the signal from the global models or the pressure falls we have seen. I strongly believe this will be a 4 or maybe even a 5 at landfall

Wow that's a bold statement. I have no reason to disagree. I actually agree with you 100% but I'm not a pro...you are.

When one of our Pro Mets makes a bold statement, I become alarmed. The reason I become alarmed is because our Pro Mets are not alarmists.

Yah that's exactly how I feel. They're usually very reserved or defer to the nhc. So I have to go with Alyono here and follow him on this one.

[PandaCitrus]

There's now a strong possibility that Irma may not make landfall at all on the peninsula and hit the Big Bend/Tallahassee area as a marginal Cat 1 Hurricane sparing the inland counties of the peninsula the most extreme winds. Storm surge will be terrible. The story of Irma may end up being the surge storm like Sandy and Katrina and not the winds. The southwest coast and Tampa could get Cat 1/2 winds but on the dirty part of the storm with extreme storm surge.

[meriland29]

I guess we will see, NHC doesn't make much sense right now.

[got ants?]

Not to be an alarmist, but we've had some pretty good bands coming through. And then this....

https://www.facebook.com/brady.mitchell.792?ref=tn_tnmn

[ozonepete]

Doesn't sound like the NHC thinks she is going to strengthen unless she completes another ERC..

it completed already. Plus, the global models show the most intensification AFTER Key West. SHIPS/LGE are being given far too much weight. We saw this last year with Matthew in the Caribbean. You cannot use global models for precise intensity, but you can for the trends

In this case I have to agree. ERC is complete. Eye has cleared out. Given this storm's structural history, i.e. that it has had a solid overall structure, especially at mid-levels for so long, it has a really good chance to re-strengthen rapidly now.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100317
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 21 20170910
030730 2244N 07922W 6969 03050 9946 +084 //// 197062 062 047 005 01
030800 2243N 07920W 6966 03055 9948 +084 //// 196061 062 047 005 05
030830 2243N 07920W 6966 03055 9944 +092 +073 195063 064 045 004 00
030900 2241N 07918W 6970 03055 9951 +087 +062 196065 065 047 003 00
030930 2240N 07916W 6970 03056 9953 +086 +069 194067 070 046 005 00
031000 2239N 07915W 6973 03056 9961 +082 //// 192066 068 045 003 01
031030 2239N 07914W 6959 03074 9952 +091 +076 194070 073 045 002 03
031100 2240N 07912W 6967 03066 9958 +088 +076 193072 073 /// /// 03
031130 2242N 07912W 6971 03062 9964 +082 //// 192067 071 /// /// 05
031200 2243N 07913W 6972 03056 9960 +084 //// 191067 068 050 004 01
031230 2245N 07914W 6973 03055 9959 +084 +064 190065 068 052 003 00
031300 2248N 07915W 6966 03062 9959 +082 +071 189066 068 051 003 00
031330 2250N 07915W 6974 03049 9967 +075 //// 189065 068 050 006 01
031400 2252N 07916W 6963 03062 9944 +090 +083 189064 065 051 007 00
031430 2254N 07916W 6980 03039 9945 +089 +083 190067 068 052 006 00
031500 2257N 07917W 6963 03060 9952 +081 //// 186069 070 051 005 01
031530 2259N 07917W 6970 03048 9944 +086 //// 188071 071 052 006 01
031600 2301N 07918W 6969 03050 9950 +079 //// 188072 075 050 009 01
031630 2303N 07918W 6965 03053 //// +067 //// 182074 076 051 009 01
031700 2306N 07919W 6970 03047 //// +069 //// 181073 075 052 011 01
$$

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow. If this track shifts anymore west, Florida may really be dodging a bullet compared to what was thought previously, that is, if it does start to weaken in 24 to 36 hours as the NHC says it will

If you want Florida to dodge a bullet, then you should want an east shift. A west shift puts Tampa east of the eyewall opening up the possibility of seeing one of America's greatest potential disasters coming to fruition.

I'm confused, don't you usually want the cities to stay out of the eye wall since they have the strongest winds? I'm really hoping for a Cat 3 or less. I do have friends that live in Tampa, but luckily they don't live near the coast

[HurricaneBelle]

Interesting that Tampa's hurricane wind speed probabilities dropped from 86 to 68 between the 5PM and 11PM advisories. I suppose it's a function of slightly more west track along with NHC's belief it will be weakening some at this latitude.

[eastcoastFL]

Not sure what to think, especially since this is recon confirmed and they are the ones actually there, we are basing this off of a radar...

I don't think it's recon confirmed. The nhc is saying they are still waiting on recon data.

"Irma's nearly 24-hour traversal of the north coast of Cuba appears
to have affected the hurricane's structure and intensity. An
earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a more recent Air Force
reconnaissance flight both measured maximum flight-level winds near
105 kt and surface winds near 95 kt. The planes have reported
a double eyewall structure, which has also been observed in WSR-88D
Doppler radar data from Miami and Key West. Irma's intensity has
been conservatively lowered to 105 kt, and I'd rather wait to lower
the winds further until we've seen the full data set from the Air
Force mission."

Did you read that last sentence where hey say they don't have a full set of data??

[Bamagirl2408]

There's now a strong possibility that Irma may not make landfall at all on the peninsula and hit the Big Bend/Tallahassee area as a marginal Cat 1 Hurricane sparing the inland counties of the peninsula the most extreme winds. Storm surge will be terrible. The story of Irma may end up being the surge storm like Sandy and Katrina and not the winds. The southwest coast and Tampa could get Cat 1/2 winds but on the dirty part of the storm with extreme storm surge.

Doesnt advisory list @ Cedar Key at landfall?

[RL3AO]

Wow. If this track shifts anymore west, Florida may really be dodging a bullet compared to what was thought previously, that is, if it does start to weaken in 24 to 36 hours as the NHC says it will

If you want Florida to dodge a bullet, then you should want an east shift. A west shift puts Tampa east of the eyewall opening up the possibility of seeing one of America's greatest potential disasters coming to fruition.

I'm confused, don't you usually want the cities to stay out of the eye wall since they have the strongest winds? I'm really hoping for a Cat 3 or less

It's all about storm surge and not wind in Tampa.

[Ptarmigan]

The latest NHC advisory has Irma moving at 6 mph.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0307.shtml

That would make Irma a rainmaker as well.

[stormreader]

I can almost guarantee you that this storm, regardless of up to date observations and forecasts, will intensify and at least be of category 4 intensity off the SW Fl coast. IMO

[PandaCitrus]

First it was Miami, then Everglades, then Naples, Ft. Myers, now Cedar Key, See a pattern here? I'd be shocked if Euro at 1:45 has this landfalling on the peninsula of Florida.

[Alyono]

If you want Florida to dodge a bullet, then you should want an east shift. A west shift puts Tampa east of the eyewall opening up the possibility of seeing one of America's greatest potential disasters coming to fruition.

I'm confused, don't you usually want the cities to stay out of the eye wall since they have the strongest winds? I'm really hoping for a Cat 3 or less

It's all about storm surge and not wind in Tampa.

I wouldn't say ALL about surge. You sure don't want 150 mph gusts hitting the high rises

[Raebie]

If you want Florida to dodge a bullet, then you should want an east shift. A west shift puts Tampa east of the eyewall opening up the possibility of seeing one of America's greatest potential disasters coming to fruition.

I'm confused, don't you usually want the cities to stay out of the eye wall since they have the strongest winds? I'm really hoping for a Cat 3 or less

It's all about storm surge and not wind in Tampa.

Everyone is so damned focused on the wind. It's the freakin water. It doesn't matter anymore what cat level it comes in at. WHERE it comes in is the the issue.

[supercane4867]

The eye seems to be rapidly clearing out already on satellite imagery. Irma is likely making a run to CAT4 by dawn.

[La Sirena]

The eye seems to be rapidly clearing out already on satellite imagery. Irma is likely making a run to CAT4 by dawn.

The million dollar question: WHERE does she land?

[tolakram]

I'm not seeing the double wind max either.

[Zarniwoop]

Based on HH findings, looks like her eye wall is re-doing itself again. Strong cat 2 now?

Further weakening until it resolves? Last cycle took over a day.

I guess I'm asking questions because this seems the polar opposite of predictions.