ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PandaCitrus]

Look at the NHC Hurricane track. A 20 or 30 mile shift west from here would have Irma completely offshore the entire peninsula.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[CrazyC83]

I'm not seeing the double wind max either.

Also that SFMR reading suggests that 105 kt is appropriate.

[Florabamaman]

I'm in Santa Rosa county and I have been watching Irma very closely. I am admittedly not a weather expert. Can I expect the tropical storm warnings / watches to be extended westward as well? Everyone I have talked to today feels like conditions here will be worse than forecasted. Myself and my neighbors have been putting up shutters and prepping as if it was coming here. The weather today was unseasonably mild and very windy. It has that feeling and the aura that you can't describe before a storm comes in...

[CrazyC83]

I'm in Santa Rosa county and I have been watching Irma very closely. I am admittedly not a weather expert. Can I expect the tropical storm warnings / watches to be extended westward as well? Everyone I have talked to today feels like conditions here will be worse than forecasted. Myself and my neighbors have been putting up shutters and prepping as if it was coming here. The weather today was unseasonably mild and very windy. It has that feeling and the aura that you can't describe before a storm comes in...

Maybe by 1 or 2 counties they might be extended.

[PTPatrick]

There's now a strong possibility that Irma may not make landfall at all on the peninsula and hit the Big Bend/Tallahassee area as a marginal Cat 1 Hurricane sparing the inland counties of the peninsula the most extreme winds. Storm surge will be terrible. The story of Irma may end up being the surge storm like Sandy and Katrina and not the winds. The southwest coast and Tampa could get Cat 1/2 winds but on the dirty part of the storm with extreme storm surge.

I was actually alluding to this yesterday with my friend in Tallahassee worrying about the west path...ie whether it makes it to Tallahassee via water as a sheared mess or over land probably would not make a material difference. It's likely to cause them major power outage, worse than hermine but not likely to be devastating there. Of course the further west has huge ramifications for Tampa surge wise...regardless of category

[PandaCitrus]

I'm getting Charley flashbacks with the NHC having to put out an emergency advisory with Charley bombing to Cat 4 and going to Punta Gorda.

Irma bombing to Cat 4 and moving west of track west of Tampa Bay and piling much greater than expected 15-20 feet of surge is a nightmare scenario.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100327
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 22 20170910
031730 2308N 07920W 6967 03050 //// +071 //// 184075 077 053 011 05
031800 2310N 07920W 6964 03051 9934 +086 //// 181078 079 054 008 01
031830 2313N 07921W 6971 03044 9937 +088 +084 177075 079 054 003 00
031900 2315N 07921W 6966 03048 9948 +074 //// 177074 075 057 005 01
031930 2318N 07922W 6971 03042 //// +072 //// 179071 073 057 005 01
032000 2320N 07922W 6964 03049 9925 +086 //// 181065 071 057 004 01
032030 2322N 07923W 6970 03042 9916 +100 +098 187066 067 057 000 00
032100 2324N 07923W 6967 03043 9922 +094 +093 187068 069 056 001 00
032130 2327N 07924W 6967 03041 9914 +099 +093 184067 068 057 001 00
032200 2329N 07924W 6967 03041 9915 +097 +092 185071 073 056 002 00
032230 2331N 07925W 6967 03037 9923 +086 //// 181073 077 057 007 01
032300 2334N 07925W 6971 03048 //// +070 //// 173075 079 058 014 05
032330 2336N 07926W 6962 03062 //// +077 //// 171074 080 057 009 01
032400 2338N 07926W 6966 03060 //// +080 //// 171072 074 058 007 01
032430 2341N 07927W 6966 03060 //// +075 //// 171077 078 059 007 01
032500 2343N 07928W 6968 03058 //// +072 //// 167077 080 059 010 01
032530 2345N 07928W 6965 03061 //// +072 //// 164078 079 058 008 01
032600 2348N 07929W 6966 03059 //// +071 //// 161079 080 058 006 01
032630 2350N 07929W 6966 03058 //// +070 //// 162076 078 060 004 01
032700 2353N 07930W 6966 03059 9946 +086 //// 161073 075 060 003 01
$$

[tolakram]

Pressure is still dropping, from 934mb last recon pass to 932mb first recon pass this mission. Not bombing out yet.

[Raebie]

Dr. Knabb on TWC is sounding really frustrated with all of this "it's only a cat 3" crap.

[wx247]

 https://twitter.com/NWSAtlanta/status/906716024136982528

[Zarniwoop]

Pressure is still dropping, from 934mb last recon pass to 932mb first recon pass this mission.

Is there something that could stop the winds from getting down all of a sudden?

[SouthDadeFish]

There definitely is a double wind max. It's at a large radius, so it's unclear if it's simply a rainband or the beginning of a giant eyewall, as 1900hurricane said. After looking at recent radar trends and seeing the inner eyewall start to behave a little wonky, I'm wondering if the NHC is onto something. It seems unlikely that an eyewall that large would form, but it would certainly result in minimal intensification.

[Alyono]

Based on HH findings, looks like her eye wall is re-doing itself again. Strong cat 2 now?

Further weakening until it resolves? Last cycle took over a day.

I guess I'm asking questions because this seems the polar opposite of predictions.

there was a 101 kt SFMR. Looked legit

[Aric Dunn]

Ok sorry what did i miss.. ?

[CaptinCrunch]

Just now WC said winds are back to 125 sustained and Irma has made a more Northern turn and is now moving NW @ 9MPH and Key West is now in the direct path.

[Blinhart]

Dr. Knabb on TWC is sounding really frustrated with all of this "it's only a cat 3" crap.

Yeah he is definitely getting frustrated, and he doesn't seem happy with what was stated in this last advisory.

[stormreader]

NHC advisory at 6 mph. Not a stall, but pretty slow. These great storms can sometimes be the most unpredictable. Great models, we have now. But Irma throwing us a few curveballs. It's motion toward S Fl is harder to ascertain, I would say.

[tolakram]

Pressure is still dropping, from 934mb last recon pass to 932mb first recon pass this mission.

Is there something that could stop the winds from getting down all of a sudden?

Very broad windfield. Pressure is that of a cat 4 but the winds haven't caught up.

[dixiebreeze]

A Panhandle landfall would not be out of the question IMHO.

[brghteys1216]

Not model thread but worth noting gfs shifted tad east from 18z