ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Any pause in forward speed for this system has the potential for increased intensification once it reaches the GOM.

[BobHarlem]

NHC must be holding out a bit waiting on persistence to mention in the outlook, having "the big sea pickle" over Florida on the Outlook graph tends to set folks off.

[GCANE]

Getting some new towers firing off.
Impressive for this time of day.

[Hurricane Andrew]

pressure starting to fall at the buoy.. winds are back to the west again...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=AST

What are the coordinates of that bouy?

[Blown Away]

Convection starting to wane and no clear circulation center. I see why the NHC is not enthused.

[tailgater]

pressure starting to fall at the buoy.. winds are back to the west again...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=AST

So far the pressure is only .2 mb lower than this time yesterday, I think the MLC getting all that inflow had me fooled a bit earlier. Still a long ways to go. IMO

[cycloneye]

AL, 04, 2017071018, , BEST, 0, 220N, 640W, 25, 1013, LO

As of 18:00 UTC Jul 10, 2017:

Location: 22.0°N 64.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1016 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

[Nimbus]

The TUTT to the north of the storm is starting to drop back south again which is increasing the shear.
LLC will probably have to run west almost naked if it wants to survive.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure starting to fall at the buoy.. winds are back to the west again...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=AST

So far the pressure is only .2 mb lower than this time yesterday, I think the MLC getting all that inflow had me fooled a bit earlier. Still a long ways to go. IMO

you were not fooled there was and still is data to support a weak surface low. but because of the nature of the wave axis its having some issues. just have to watch..

[wxman57]

Most likely, it will move across the Bahamas, Florida, and the NE Gulf looking pretty much as it does now. May threat will be heavy rain vs. wind.

[Blown Away]

AL, 04, 2017071018, , BEST, 0, 220N, 640W, 25, 1013, LO

As of 18:00 UTC Jul 10, 2017:

Location: 22.0°N 64.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1016 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

Ok, the initial position was 22.5N/64.1W, so the 18:00 UTC position moved 04 back SE towards the convection.

[GCANE]

Very cool loop showing a feed directly from the south fueling the latest vortical hot tower.
Nice helicity to it.
GOES-16 is a dramtic improvement compared to previous satellites.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[Bocadude85]

The TUTT to the north of the storm is starting to drop back south again which is increasing the shear.
LLC will probably have to run west almost naked if it wants to survive.

I thought shear wasn't supposed to be a problem after yesterday?

[ronjon]

Convection starting to wane and no clear circulation center. I see why the NHC is not enthused.

Add lack of model support too.

[Hurricaneman]

LLC might try to reform under the convection, might be its best chance

[Weather150]

If this were to develop, I wouldn't expect much until it gets into the Gulf. NHC not mentioning just yet was a good call.

[Aric Dunn]

LLC might try to reform under the convection, might be its best chance

there is a whole lot going on. looks like one swirl got spit to the NW.. but yeah if anything were to form or redevelop it would right there at the windshift..

[hurricanehunter69]

Recent EURO runs has me interested this afternoon. So, while checking it out....it appears to me that a significant curved band may be taking shape and thus a more defined circulation. per Mimic-TPW http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can someone explain helicity to me? Thanks

[Bocadude85]

If this were to develop, I wouldn't expect much until it gets into the Gulf. NHC not mentioning just yet was a good call.

I bet they are waiting to see what the 18z models show before making a mention at the 8pm TWO.