LarryWx wrote:Alyono wrote:LarryWx wrote:
There's a big initialization problem with UK and that has a lot to do with how strong it is and how far east its track is. First of all, it already had it just going offshore at 0Z (8 PM), or 4 hours early over hot water, and a whopping full degree east of where it actually was at 8 PM. UK had it at 83.5W and it was at 84.5 W per NHC! Shear is likely less there, too. Then, partially because of that too far east initialization, UK send him E of the Yucatan! So, that is another reason why it has him so strong. Can anyone think of a reason that this run shouldn't be thrown in the trash?
The thing is, some ensemble guidance I have seen also shows a track east of the Yucatan. The initial intensity is accurate based upon the aircraft data
But it is starting out 60 miles E of reality, which makes it much easier to miss the Yucatan and puts it in a better environment. You talk about throwing out the GFS and maybe for good reason, but why not also throw something that initializes a very crucial 60 miles too far east?
I would need to see the actual fields to make sure that is not merely the vortex tracker picking up on something it shouldn't
. At any rate, model TVCN looks right on top of the NHC track from 10PM. However UKMET and Euro are in very close agreement and they've both been very good so far this season. I think NHC sticks with TVCN and previous advisory for continuity since to move east would require a change in watches. Here's the latest spaghetti graphic with latest Euro missing though it mostly copied UKMET.
