ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 100430
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 10/04:12:10Z
B. 23 deg 35 min N
081 deg 09 min W
C. 700 mb 2505 m
D. 113 kt
E. 060 deg 11 nm
F. 145 deg 110 kt
G. 056 deg 15 nm
H. 931 mb
I. 8 C / 3039 m
J. 17 C / 3050 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 2911A IRMA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 110 KT 056 / 15 NM 04:07:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 165 / 3 KT

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100517
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 33 20170910
050730 2322N 08307W 6970 03047 9935 +094 +080 000054 055 045 003 00
050800 2320N 08308W 6963 03058 9932 +098 +062 359055 055 043 003 00
050830 2318N 08309W 6970 03051 9937 +096 +057 356052 054 044 001 00
050900 2316N 08310W 6964 03060 9941 +093 +063 356052 053 044 001 00
050930 2314N 08310W 6970 03055 9949 +089 +063 354051 052 042 000 00
051000 2312N 08311W 6962 03064 9950 +087 +076 352049 050 042 000 03
051030 2310N 08309W 6970 03055 9947 +089 +083 350048 049 /// /// 03
051100 2311N 08307W 6974 03044 9943 +089 +071 353047 047 039 001 00
051130 2311N 08306W 6966 03053 9936 +094 +060 353048 049 037 001 03
051200 2312N 08304W 6971 03047 9933 +095 +071 353050 051 038 001 00
051230 2312N 08302W 6967 03049 9934 +091 +078 354051 052 037 001 00
051300 2313N 08300W 6965 03050 9930 +094 +073 353052 053 040 002 00
051330 2313N 08259W 6965 03049 9923 +098 +072 351052 053 042 002 00
051400 2314N 08257W 6969 03042 9922 +099 +070 352053 054 043 002 00
051430 2314N 08255W 6967 03042 9920 +099 +065 352056 057 045 000 00
051500 2314N 08255W 6967 03042 9919 +100 +065 352055 057 044 001 00
051530 2315N 08252W 6965 03039 9913 +099 +080 351054 055 045 001 00
051600 2316N 08250W 6968 03033 9917 +091 +090 349054 056 044 002 00
051630 2316N 08248W 6966 03036 9911 +095 //// 348054 056 043 003 01
051700 2317N 08247W 6969 03027 9903 +099 +095 347056 057 046 002 00
$$
;

[AubreyStorm]

Cat 4 next advisory

[Hammy]

Trochoidal oscillation going on? Averaged motion seems a definite NW if not NNW but the eye seems to be looping around similarly to Wilma.

[Alyono]

NHC had those winds. They did not deem them valid

[Sanibel]

That outer band had some punch...The heavy rain brought what felt like tropical storm winds to the surface...Then a dry slot with hardly any winds...I'm trying to save two cars that would have been ruined by surge...Only I traded surge for wind and I should be in the NE eyewall tomorrow...I switched to a south-facing concrete wall and was lucky again to get a spot...I have a strategy tomorrow at peak...

[PTPatrick]

South eyewall not looking great in radar and there seems to be some dry air on the SW side but it could be a distance thing. From the chart above it seems like the double wind maximum may be lessening but still a hint there.

[Jag95]

South eyewall not looking great in radar and there seems to be some dry air on the SW side but it could be a distance thing. From the chart above it seems like the double wind maximum may be lessening but still a hint there.

I was looking at the Cuban radar and the south wall looks weaker than the north from that angle too.

[shah83]

You can't see the southern half from Key West as well as you see the northern half because that half blocks the view. From Cuba, the southern eyewall doesn't look that bad...

[Blown Away]

Man looks close to due N...
http://www.wpbf.com/weather/radar

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100537
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 35 20170910
052730 2328N 08208W 6967 02955 9782 +130 +115 339044 045 057 005 00
052800 2329N 08207W 6973 02944 9769 +136 +114 341046 047 057 005 00
052830 2329N 08205W 6965 02949 9757 +145 +108 345054 056 056 004 00
052900 2330N 08203W 6967 02940 9759 +137 +109 346055 056 056 004 00
052930 2330N 08201W 6972 02930 9762 +131 +101 349056 056 052 004 00
053000 2331N 08159W 6965 02933 9747 +140 +094 349057 058 048 004 00
053030 2331N 08158W 6968 02924 9741 +139 +102 349059 060 046 001 00
053100 2332N 08156W 6970 02916 9736 +140 +101 348061 062 047 001 00
053130 2332N 08154W 6966 02915 9729 +140 +101 347060 062 047 002 00
053200 2333N 08153W 6965 02912 9724 +138 +094 346060 061 046 001 00
053230 2333N 08151W 6969 02901 9714 +140 +109 345063 065 046 001 00
053300 2334N 08149W 6971 02890 9700 +148 +100 345066 067 047 001 00
053330 2334N 08147W 6968 02886 9691 +146 +097 343069 070 051 001 00
053400 2335N 08145W 6967 02879 9683 +147 +094 342071 071 052 001 00
053430 2335N 08144W 6970 02865 9672 +149 +089 344069 071 052 003 00
053500 2336N 08142W 6970 02857 9670 +138 +111 346068 069 055 002 00
053530 2336N 08140W 6969 02846 9666 +128 +114 349073 075 058 007 00
053600 2336N 08139W 6971 02829 9650 +131 +100 345078 079 060 008 00
053630 2337N 08137W 6966 02820 9633 +132 +104 343081 084 062 008 00
053700 2337N 08135W 6967 02801 9597 +150 +100 343086 087 067 005 00

[AubreyStorm]

HMON expects Irma touch category 5 after Key West pass. Well see!

[jasons2k]

Eyewall is closing off...she should intensify more rapidly now,

[meriland29]

How many are staying up?

[Airboy]

Pressure droping probably around 927MB from Recon.


Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 100 kts (115.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 111 kts (127.7 mph)

[1900hurricane]

Woah, those extrap pressures are way lower this pass.

[ozonepete]

Trochoidal oscillation going on? Averaged motion seems a definite NW if not NNW but the eye seems to be looping around similarly to Wilma.

Always trochoidal in powerful tropical cyclones. Clearly we are learning more about why this occurs because we can see inner and outer eyewalls interacting, but if you try to gauge it by watching short term loops you'll go crazy, blind, or both. I never visually assume what the forward direction of motion is unless the loop is at least 6 hours.

[Nederlander]

You can't see the southern half from Key West as well as you see the northern half because that half blocks the view. From Cuba, the southern eyewall doesn't look that bad...

^^Correct.. Radar attenuation

[cheezyWXguy]

Eyewall is closing off...she should intensify more rapidly now,

additionally, the inner eyewall is all but gone now and double wind max is less prominent. All signs point to strengthening, but this storm has been stubborn so far. Guess we will see.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100547
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 36 20170910
053730 2338N 08133W 6969 02777 9600 +122 +115 347087 089 069 008 00
053800 2338N 08132W 6964 02757 9571 +122 +111 346094 098 077 011 00
053830 2339N 08130W 6963 02728 9547 +115 //// 341099 102 077 018 01
053900 2339N 08128W 6964 02690 //// +113 //// 337108 113 091 047 01
053930 2340N 08127W 6969 02639 9436 +132 //// 340099 113 101 037 01
054000 2340N 08125W 6973 02612 9380 +170 +132 341083 089 098 010 03
054030 2341N 08123W 6967 02584 9325 +190 +145 341067 081 075 001 00
054100 2341N 08121W 6971 02551 9296 +191 +148 342051 060 050 002 00
054130 2342N 08120W 6971 02532 9278 +190 +148 342035 046 040 001 00
054200 2342N 08118W 6969 02522 9263 +190 +146 333018 029 026 001 00
054230 2343N 08116W 6973 02513 9261 +190 +142 198001 011 019 001 00
054300 2344N 08114W 6966 02522 9265 +188 +140 155018 024 020 001 00
054330 2345N 08113W 6971 02525 9277 +182 +137 152024 027 023 001 03
054400 2346N 08111W 6971 02528 9283 +180 +144 148036 040 029 000 00
054430 2348N 08110W 6974 02534 9288 +184 +146 144053 061 051 001 03
054500 2349N 08108W 6965 02566 9313 +179 +150 143073 079 099 005 00
054530 2350N 08107W 6950 02610 9359 +136 //// 145091 100 111 009 01
054600 2352N 08106W 6966 02623 9409 +140 //// 144106 111 111 009 05
054630 2353N 08104W 6970 02657 //// +112 //// 145117 121 109 038 05
054700 2354N 08103W 6942 02722 //// +111 //// 144123 128 105 040 01
$$