ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gone2beach]

...IRMA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 10
Location: 23.7°N 81.3°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 931 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

That's from NHC's web page....


DISCLAMER I'm not a met, do refer to official NHC for official forecasts!

[meriland29]

Will there be more recon info between now and the next advisory? Just curious if NHC could strengthen or reduce in the next advisory.

[Airboy]

Pressure 930MB from dropsonde, not so bad pressure drop from the last.

[CrazyC83]

Since 1851, there has never been a year with two landfalling storms of cat 4+ intensity in the CONUS. We may be hours from history...

[p1nheadlarry]

Trochoidal oscillation going on? Averaged motion seems a definite NW if not NNW but the eye seems to be looping around similarly to Wilma.

Always trochoidal in powerful tropical cyclones. Clearly we are learning more about why this occurs because we can see inner and outer eyewalls interacting, but if you try to gauge it by watching short term loops you'll go crazy, blind, or both. I never visually assume what the forward direction of motion is unless the loop is at least 6 hours.

Amen to that! I used to watch those 90 minute loops on these things and think it gave me dyslexia

You're spelling looked good there, taking any medication?

[ncbird]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/south-florida/large-scale-loop

[meriland29]

Does anyone have a approximation when she will hit the FL KEYS? She is moving 6mph

[bob rulz]

We warned people not to write off re-intensification.....I shudder to think of what the Florida Keys are going to look like in 24 hours.

Speaking of the Keys, are there any Keys webcams still working? Every one that I had up is offline now. I suppose you probably wouldn't be able to see much from them anyway at this time of night.

[cheezyWXguy]

What are the most recent winds being reported at Key West?

Radar velocities show close to 100mph now, and given that the radar site is just a few miles east of Key West, it really isn't looking too high up in the atmosphere. Seems like quite distance for winds that strong to extend from the center.

[Nasdaq]

We warned people not to write off re-intensification.....I shudder to think of what the Florida Keys are going to look like in 24 hours.

Speaking of the Keys, are there any Keys webcams still working? Every one that I had up is offline now. I suppose you probably wouldn't be able to see much from them anyway at this time of night.

Mark of hurricanetrack.com has a cam at marathon, I believe thats the only one left.

[meriland29]

She is looking astonishing, can't believe her persistence.

[Audrey2Katrina]

"You're spelling looked good there, taking any medication?

.. You're? maybe we both could use a change in meds? actually-- it's a case of LOTS of practice and use of the backspace key!

[Extratropical94]

What are the most recent winds being reported at Key West?

Radar velocities show close to 100mph now, and given that the radar site is just a few miles east of Key West, it really isn't looking too high up in the atmosphere. Seems like quite distance for winds that strong to extend from the center.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580

Winds seem to be 30-35kt, gusting to above 50kt.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100607
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 38 20170910
055730 2420N 08035W 6963 02946 9805 +099 //// 149090 091 069 018 01
055800 2421N 08034W 6970 02945 9810 +099 //// 146091 093 072 007 01
055830 2422N 08033W 6970 02947 9817 +098 //// 147092 093 070 007 01
055900 2423N 08031W 6966 02959 9831 +092 //// 146090 091 070 007 01
055930 2425N 08030W 6972 02956 9835 +091 //// 143090 091 070 008 01
060000 2426N 08029W 6965 02969 9845 +088 //// 141086 089 070 009 01
060030 2427N 08027W 6970 02968 9850 +089 //// 140084 086 071 009 01
060100 2428N 08026W 6966 02977 9852 +091 //// 141084 085 070 006 01
060130 2430N 08025W 6969 02976 9843 +102 +092 144085 086 067 006 00
060200 2431N 08023W 6967 02984 9842 +108 +091 145087 088 066 005 00
060230 2432N 08022W 6970 02984 9854 +100 +093 146087 087 066 005 00
060300 2433N 08021W 6967 02992 9868 +093 //// 145089 090 065 006 01
060330 2434N 08019W 6969 02993 9868 +095 //// 145085 089 066 004 01
060400 2436N 08018W 6969 02998 9868 +099 //// 144084 086 066 004 01
060430 2437N 08016W 6971 02999 9865 +106 +098 145082 083 064 004 00
060500 2438N 08015W 6968 03005 9877 +098 //// 145079 081 064 003 01
060530 2439N 08014W 6966 03013 9881 +098 +093 145076 079 065 004 00
060600 2441N 08012W 6972 03008 9889 +095 //// 144077 078 064 004 01
060630 2442N 08011W 6967 03018 9890 +097 +095 144079 081 064 004 00
060700 2443N 08010W 6967 03021 9894 +098 +095 142077 081 063 003 00
$$
;

[NWFL56]

Always trochoidal in powerful tropical cyclones. Clearly we are learning more about why this occurs because we can see inner and outer eyewalls interacting, but if you try to gauge it by watching short term loops you'll go crazy, blind, or both. I never visually assume what the forward direction of motion is unless the loop is at least 6 hours.

Amen to that! I used to watch those 90 minute loops on these things and think it gave me dyslexia

You're spelling looked good there, taking any medication?

Your's, not so much. Lol

[Audrey2Katrina]

That is one incredible image! That eye is well defined and the storm looks to be intensifying as it crosses over toward the Keys area. And though the eye is wobbling a lot the general direction now appears to be more NNW than NW.

[p1nheadlarry]

Amen to that! I used to watch those 90 minute loops on these things and think it gave me dyslexia

You're spelling looked good there, taking any medication?

Your's, not so much. Lol

Ouch. That's what I deserve lol.

[PTPatrick]

Man...looking like this will be the first cat 4 to hit key west head on since record keeping. Lots of wood frame homes I see, goodspeed to all of them. It's going to be a long a miserable cleanup. Even the little nub in the middle that sticks up above 10 feet is likely to be heavily wind damaged with cat 4 wind. I mean for all intents it is going to be a cat 4 key west strike, although we don't know yet maybe he eyewall will be more toward marathon

We don't really know what 1846 storm was but they say maybe 4 or 5

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100617
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 39 20170910
060730 2444N 08008W 6970 03021 9898 +097 +095 142077 078 064 004 00
060800 2446N 08007W 6967 03027 9903 +095 //// 140074 077 063 003 01
060830 2447N 08006W 6973 03023 9906 +095 //// 140074 075 060 004 01
060900 2448N 08004W 6966 03032 9919 +087 //// 141074 076 059 005 01
060930 2449N 08003W 6974 03025 9925 +084 //// 141078 080 059 005 01
061000 2451N 08002W 6968 03035 9925 +086 //// 142075 077 058 004 01
061030 2452N 08000W 6967 03038 9913 +098 +094 143073 074 058 003 00
061100 2453N 07959W 6970 03040 9912 +102 +090 143070 072 058 003 00
061130 2454N 07957W 6967 03044 9908 +109 +085 145069 069 054 002 00
061200 2456N 07956W 6972 03041 9917 +103 +085 145073 074 053 002 00
061230 2457N 07955W 6976 03042 9930 +094 +088 143078 078 051 004 00
061300 2458N 07953W 6970 03052 9954 +078 //// 141082 083 051 005 01
061330 2459N 07952W 6964 03057 9958 +078 //// 141081 082 049 007 01
061400 2500N 07951W 6967 03057 9961 +076 //// 142081 082 048 008 05
061430 2502N 07950W 6965 03062 9954 +083 //// 141082 083 /// /// 05
061500 2504N 07952W 6970 03054 9954 +083 //// 136083 084 /// /// 05
061530 2503N 07954W 6980 03042 9955 +082 //// 136078 082 /// /// 05
061600 2503N 07956W 6966 03057 9952 +081 //// 137078 080 049 006 01
061630 2503N 07959W 6970 03048 9956 +078 //// 138078 080 052 007 01
061700 2503N 08001W 6967 03049 9948 +081 //// 135075 076 052 008 05
$$
;

[cheezyWXguy]

What are the most recent winds being reported at Key West?

Radar velocities show close to 100mph now, and given that the radar site is just a few miles east of Key West, it really isn't looking too high up in the atmosphere. Seems like quite distance for winds that strong to extend from the center.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580

Winds seem to be 30-35kt, gusting to above 50kt.

Thanks, that sounds a lot more reasonable.