ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

That eye looks like it is going to be huge once it clears.

if it clears before the shear comes... its having some issues with vertical alignment...also dry air will coming shortly.. probably not soon enough for the keys but mainland might likely to have a weakening hurricane.

[FLpanhandle91]

That eye looks like it is going to be huge once it clears.

if it clears before the shear comes... its having some issues with vertical alignment...

Graphic/data to support this?

[Jevo]

Leading edge of the eye is 43 miles from the Key West divided by 6mph sooooo 7ish hours if the speed holds

[FLpanhandle91]

Leading edge of the eye is 43 miles from the Key West divided by 6mph sooooo 7ish hours if the speed holds

Smaller, degrading eye or the larger, stronger eye? Keep in mind with track/speed that this eye characteristic is still concentric.

[bamajammer4eva]

With the shear only increasing from here on out. what will this look like by final landfall?? Lopsided with all weather North and East of the center??

[Aric Dunn]

That eye looks like it is going to be huge once it clears.

if it clears before the shear comes... its having some issues with vertical alignment...

Graphic/data to support this?

which part. ? you need only to look at satellite and radar to show the there is a lag... the shear is just to its north and will increase in the next 12 hours.

[LarryWx]

Since 1851, there has never been a year with two landfalling storms of cat 4+ intensity in the CONUS. We may be hours from history...

What about 1915?

[MrJames]

The latest shear map

[Aric Dunn]

it has the classic north moving radar signature of a very well pronounced northern eyewall with a large moat to the south. ...

[Sciencerocks]

How many more hours until Key west?

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like the plane found a 926 pressure, maybe slightly strengthening.

[chaser1]

I hadn't looked yet but am assuming the latest GFS run has backed off its 895 mb mega-storm prediction lol

[Jevo]

Leading edge of the eye is 43 miles from the Key West divided by 6mph sooooo 7ish hours if the speed holds

Smaller, degrading eye or the larger, stronger eye? Keep in mind with track/speed that this eye characteristic is still concentric.

I'm being pure rudimentary and using the eye feature on GRLevel3 placing a marker at the radar site and letting the software do the rest 43mi @ 153 degrees.

[Aric Dunn]

it has only 6 to maybe 8 hours to really deepen before it begins to interact with the trough and transition begins.. however that does not mean the high winds and surge are not dangerous. ... just means the likelihood of RI is going away fast..

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100647
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 42 20170910
063730 2509N 08147W 6973 03021 9909 +090 //// 080068 070 052 007 01
063800 2509N 08149W 6970 03026 9912 +091 //// 078068 069 052 006 01
063830 2510N 08152W 6969 03030 9908 +097 +092 077066 067 052 005 00
063900 2510N 08154W 6970 03031 9895 +108 +093 076066 067 053 003 00
063930 2510N 08157W 6971 03031 9905 +101 +092 072066 066 053 003 00
064000 2510N 08159W 6969 03034 9912 +097 +095 071065 066 052 006 00
064030 2510N 08202W 6970 03034 9917 +093 //// 070066 066 052 009 01
064100 2510N 08204W 6971 03034 9923 +091 //// 070066 066 054 010 05
064130 2510N 08207W 6966 03042 9930 +086 //// 069068 069 055 011 05
064200 2511N 08209W 6970 03038 9931 +086 //// 070066 067 055 011 01
064230 2511N 08212W 6968 03042 9931 +089 //// 069064 065 051 011 05
064300 2511N 08214W 6968 03042 9914 +103 +089 066062 063 049 007 00
064330 2511N 08216W 6971 03041 9901 +116 +080 067063 064 049 002 00
064400 2511N 08219W 6970 03046 9897 +122 +080 066062 064 051 001 00
064430 2511N 08221W 6965 03053 9899 +123 +076 066061 063 050 002 00
064500 2511N 08224W 6969 03049 9905 +119 +075 066063 063 050 000 00
064530 2511N 08226W 6969 03052 9905 +122 +062 065064 064 049 001 00
064600 2512N 08229W 6967 03055 9909 +120 +065 062065 065 047 001 00
064630 2512N 08231W 6973 03051 9916 +115 +074 062062 065 048 001 00
064700 2512N 08233W 6966 03058 9914 +117 +074 061060 061 049 001 00
$$

[FLpanhandle91]

if it clears before the shear comes... its having some issues with vertical alignment...

Graphic/data to support this?

which part. ? you need only to look at satellite and radar to show the there is a lag... the shear is just to its north and will increase in the next 12 hours.

Lag? sure. Standard EWRC. Shear? Where? It's got some time.

[northjaxpro]

5 hours to landfall to Key West. Should landfall around 8 a.m. or so there.

[FLpanhandle91]

Leading edge of the eye is 43 miles from the Key West divided by 6mph sooooo 7ish hours if the speed holds

Smaller, degrading eye or the larger, stronger eye? Keep in mind with track/speed that this eye characteristic is still concentric.

I'm being pure rudimentary and using the eye feature on GRLevel3 placing a marker at the radar site and letting the software do the rest 43mi @ 153 degrees.

Based on that radar presentation, it would appear that the larger eye has completely taken hold. Would expect the smaller eye on IR to quickly disappear now, especially given its rapid cyclonic movements in recent GOES16 frames.

[joey]

Now with Irma a cat 4 would the steering map change

[Aric Dunn]

Graphic/data to support this?

which part. ? you need only to look at satellite and radar to show the there is a lag... the shear is just to its north and will increase in the next 12 hours.

Lag? sure. Standard EWRC. Shear? Where? It's got some time.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/HSxJMzs.gif[/ig]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/zY04xQr.gif[/ig]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/nLR8THq.gif[/ig]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/kfIhU3B.gif[/ig]

those are not shear images..