ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Leading edge of the eye is 43 miles from the Key West divided by 6mph sooooo 7ish hours if the speed holds

Smaller, degrading eye or the larger, stronger eye? Keep in mind with track/speed that this eye characteristic is still concentric.

I'm being pure rudimentary and using the eye feature on GRLevel3 placing a marker at the radar site and letting the software do the rest 43mi @ 153 degrees.

hey Jev's.. you got to change you radar color scheme .. so many fun stuff..

[tallywx]

those are not shear images..

Euro and GFS both strengthen this through at least the latitude of Naples.

[FLpanhandle91]

which part. ? you need only to look at satellite and radar to show the there is a lag... the shear is just to its north and will increase in the next 12 hours.

Lag? sure. Standard EWRC. Shear? Where? It's got some time.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/HSxJMzs.gif[/ig]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/zY04xQr.gif[/ig]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/nLR8THq.gif[/ig]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/kfIhU3B.gif[/ig]

those are not shear images..

Yeah I'm a huge idiot...

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100657
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 43 20170910
064730 2512N 08236W 6970 03053 9912 +120 +077 061059 060 050 001 00
064800 2512N 08238W 6967 03060 9912 +121 +073 062059 060 050 000 00
064830 2512N 08241W 6970 03058 9914 +120 +073 060059 059 050 000 00
064900 2512N 08243W 6967 03062 9918 +118 +078 058058 059 049 001 00
064930 2512N 08245W 6970 03060 9913 +125 +074 055057 058 049 001 00
065000 2512N 08248W 6970 03063 9907 +131 +069 051056 058 048 002 03
065030 2511N 08249W 6963 03070 9903 +135 +066 049052 054 /// /// 03
065100 2509N 08248W 6970 03060 9907 +130 +071 050053 054 050 000 00
065130 2509N 08247W 6966 03063 9909 +127 +069 053055 056 050 001 00
065200 2507N 08246W 6969 03057 9911 +121 +075 055057 057 050 000 00
065230 2506N 08244W 6970 03052 9907 +121 +074 056057 058 048 001 00
065300 2505N 08243W 6971 03048 9904 +121 +081 056058 058 048 000 00
065330 2504N 08242W 6969 03049 9904 +118 +084 058058 058 048 001 00
065400 2503N 08241W 6969 03046 9901 +117 +086 058055 057 049 000 00
065430 2502N 08239W 6968 03045 9894 +122 +083 056055 056 048 001 00
065500 2501N 08238W 6970 03041 9888 +125 +080 053056 057 050 000 00
065530 2500N 08237W 6968 03041 9881 +131 +076 051057 058 048 001 00
065600 2458N 08236W 6971 03034 9876 +132 +071 051060 061 050 001 00
065630 2457N 08234W 6970 03034 9872 +132 +074 051061 062 051 000 00
065700 2456N 08233W 6970 03035 9874 +131 +080 052060 061 052 002 00
$$
;

[Audrey2Katrina]

I don't suppose there would be any current info out of Marathon? Being in the NE quadrant they would probably be more impressive.

[chaser1]

I think I smell a friendly "millibar drop" wager comin'

[Aric Dunn]

well according to doppler velocities... only a couple hundred feet up the 100+ kt winds are approaching the keys.. next hour or so..

[FLpanhandle91]

Hey Aric, is there a magic number to where shear becomes an inhibitor of tropical development versus aiding in the way of ventilating? Or is it more of a location of the shear issue?

[Audrey2Katrina]

I came into this discussion a bit late; but I don't suppose I'd be even remotely the first to suggest that this storm (at least as far as Florida is concerned) seems to be a LOT like the 1935 Labor Day storm in it's projected path. I'm not talking from point of origin or to point of becoming extra-tropical; but the route across the keys and along the west-coast of Florida.

A2K

[bamajammer4eva]

I don't suppose there would be any current info out of Marathon? Being in the NE quadrant they would probably be more impressive.

Marathon only reporting pressure now from what I see 985mb

[FLpanhandle91]

I think I smell a friendly "millibar drop" wager comin'

880!

But no, really, recon diving back through the NW eye-wall. I'll give it 927 extrapolated with SFMR of 114 knots in the NW quad.

[Jevo]

Smaller, degrading eye or the larger, stronger eye? Keep in mind with track/speed that this eye characteristic is still concentric.

I'm being pure rudimentary and using the eye feature on GRLevel3 placing a marker at the radar site and letting the software do the rest 43mi @ 153 degrees.

hey Jev's.. you got to change you radar color scheme .. so many fun stuff..

Awwww man.. I sure do. I have to goof around with it after Irma.. I was playing with settings and lost 3 hours of polling 45 mins ago, like ... Nooooooooooooooooo

[Aric Dunn]

Hey Aric, is there a magic number to where shear becomes an inhibitor of tropical development versus aiding in the way of ventilating? Or is it more of a location of the shear issue?

well your asking a very good question.. no precise number of course each system is different... you have angle, and depth of shear.. as well as motion of the system within that shear..

let alone that shear is relative ( obviously) by definition.

you can have a outflow channel in any direction though normally its in a northerly direction... too many variables..

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100707
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 44 20170910
065730 2455N 08232W 6968 03036 9870 +135 +077 052060 060 054 002 00
065800 2454N 08230W 6970 03031 9898 +108 +091 052061 062 052 002 00
065830 2453N 08229W 6970 03031 9901 +103 +091 052062 062 053 009 00
065900 2451N 08228W 6970 03027 9912 +092 //// 050061 061 054 009 05
065930 2450N 08227W 6970 03026 9908 +097 +092 049063 063 054 008 03
070000 2449N 08225W 6969 03027 9878 +118 +086 049065 065 057 003 00
070030 2448N 08224W 6967 03026 9875 +119 +086 051066 066 056 004 00
070100 2447N 08223W 6969 03021 9869 +121 +086 049065 066 056 005 00
070130 2446N 08221W 6970 03018 9857 +130 +083 049064 064 056 003 00
070200 2445N 08220W 6972 03012 9869 +116 +083 047063 065 056 004 00
070230 2443N 08219W 6969 03013 9894 +094 +082 041056 060 052 016 03
070300 2442N 08218W 6978 03003 9902 +087 //// 042063 066 061 033 05
070330 2441N 08216W 6960 03019 //// +089 //// 047067 075 063 035 01
070400 2440N 08215W 6971 02998 //// +091 //// 059078 081 060 028 01
070430 2439N 08214W 6968 02995 //// +095 //// 067077 081 060 022 05
070500 2438N 08213W 6978 02979 9857 +097 //// 073075 076 060 007 01
070530 2437N 08212W 6965 02987 9845 +103 //// 074073 077 060 006 01
070600 2436N 08211W 6971 02976 9832 +111 //// 075072 075 060 006 01
070630 2435N 08210W 6967 02980 9819 +121 +112 075069 072 058 006 00
070700 2434N 08208W 6972 02973 9818 +119 +114 074068 069 058 007 00
$$
;

[FLpanhandle91]

Hey Aric, is there a magic number to where shear becomes an inhibitor of tropical development versus aiding in the way of ventilating? Or is it more of a location of the shear issue?

well your asking a very good question.. no precise number of course each system is different... you have angle, and depth of shear.. as well as motion of the system within that shear..

let alone that shear is relative ( obviously) by definition.

you can have a outflow channel in any direction though normally its in a northerly direction... too many variables..

I ask because the outflow channel and anticyclone above Irma seem to be in line with the shear direction for the foreseeable future...

[Aric Dunn]

I think I smell a friendly "millibar drop" wager comin'

880!

But no, really, recon diving back through the NW eye-wall. I'll give it 927 extrapolated with SFMR of 114 knots in the NW quad.

i go with only maybe 1 or two mb..

it wont beable to close off the southern eyewall at this point, which is a good thing. nonetheless very dangerous for the keys..

[Aric Dunn]

I'm being pure rudimentary and using the eye feature on GRLevel3 placing a marker at the radar site and letting the software do the rest 43mi @ 153 degrees.

hey Jev's.. you got to change you radar color scheme .. so many fun stuff..

Awwww man.. I sure do. I have to goof around with it after Irma.. I was playing with settings and lost 3 hours of polling 45 mins ago, like ... Nooooooooooooooooo

ill facebook you the links later ..

[caneman]

Watching the water loop towards the end of loop, it looks like Irma is pushing the shear back west. Is that even possible?

[northjaxpro]

The 00Z run is forecasting Irma to bomb to 916 mb at 12Z this morning as she landfall in Key West.

GFS is saying a pressure drop of about 14 mb from now til landfall in Key West.

Well, it will probably be in the 922 -925 range I think on her approach in 5 hours from now.

But it is plausible to happen.

EDIT: GFS bombs Irma to 911 mb at 18Z just off the coast of Fort Myers.

[caneman]

Has the same Hurricane ever made 2 U.S. landfalls as a Cat. 4 or greater? Quite possible with Irma. Key West and then Sarasota-Bradenton.