ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[brghteys1216]

storm barely appears to be moving nw, looks nearly due north to my amateur eye.

[northjaxpro]

That would be devastating for the entire West Coast of the peninsula NDG. Ouch... I am worried about the surge for Tampa Bay.

[Aric Dunn]

key west is about to get hit hard if those winds mix down to the surface..

hopefully the radar does not go out..

[northjaxpro]

storm barely appears to be moving nw, looks nearly due north to my amateur eye.

Moving slowly at just 6 mph.

[tcast305]

storm barely appears to be moving nw, looks nearly due north to my amateur eye.

I was going to post the same, it appears to be going almost due north.

Aric any thoughts? The ukmet 00Z model run showed this, almost going due north.

Thanks.

[AJC3]

Recon says eyewall is closed.

Indeed. However, given its radar presentation on both the Key West and Casablanca radars, suffice it to say that southern eyewall is weak, and may not stay closed for very much longer. It would be nice to get a radar snap from the plane right about now...

Couldn't that be the intensity of the N eyewall blocking the beam, like we saw with Harvey?

That's not the case here. The eyewall has a nearly identical presentation on the Casablanca (Cuba) radar, which is looking into it from the south.

[Aric Dunn]

right now all these little wobble count.. looks like a slight nne wobble .. hopefully does not puts key west not in the right front quad.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100837
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 53 20170910
082730 2455N 08029W 6965 03006 9869 +101 //// 147079 080 075 011 01
082800 2454N 08030W 6967 03001 9870 +097 //// 147077 079 068 009 01
082830 2453N 08031W 6963 03003 9858 +104 //// 147076 077 068 009 01
082900 2452N 08033W 6964 02998 9843 +114 +100 147077 078 067 004 00
082930 2451N 08034W 6967 02992 9842 +113 +101 146077 077 068 006 00
083000 2450N 08035W 6966 02990 9852 +102 //// 144077 077 066 009 01
083030 2449N 08036W 6960 02993 9848 +101 //// 143078 080 067 008 01
083100 2448N 08037W 6961 02987 9838 +105 //// 141078 080 067 007 01
083130 2447N 08038W 6965 02980 9835 +104 //// 143079 081 066 009 01
083200 2446N 08040W 6965 02976 9833 +103 //// 143080 083 067 008 01
083230 2445N 08041W 6961 02978 9833 +100 //// 143082 085 068 011 01
083300 2444N 08042W 6962 02971 9829 +100 //// 143084 086 071 010 01
083330 2443N 08043W 6962 02968 9822 +100 //// 144085 087 069 011 01
083400 2442N 08044W 6962 02959 9815 +100 //// 144087 089 071 013 01
083430 2441N 08045W 6964 02953 9810 +100 //// 144086 089 072 013 01
083500 2440N 08047W 6969 02943 9802 +104 //// 146081 086 069 014 01
083530 2438N 08048W 6961 02948 9797 +104 //// 145083 083 069 013 01
083600 2437N 08049W 6961 02945 9794 +102 //// 142081 083 069 010 01
083630 2436N 08050W 6969 02930 9788 +103 //// 140081 082 067 012 01
083700 2435N 08051W 6961 02934 9781 +104 //// 140081 082 070 012 05
$$

[Airboy]

key west is about to get hit hard if those winds mix down to the surface..

hopefully the radar does not go out..

Key west probably will be a bit lucky being hit with the weaker left side, but the middle/east side of the keys will take the eye and the right side....

[Aric Dunn]

119 kt sfmr

084700 2413N 08116W 6996 02562 //// +141 //// 123078 085 119 010 0

[thoughtsinchaos]

Casabalanca radar makes it appear as if the moat surrounds most of the inner core

[NDG]

Might be just a wobble the last few minutes of a more northerly heading, but if you do the extrap is still averaging on a heading towards Key West if not just a little to the east, Euro appears to be right of landfall around 9 AM this morning near Key West.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100847
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 54 20170910
083730 2434N 08052W 6970 02920 9762 +115 //// 140075 079 069 012 01
083800 2433N 08054W 6962 02925 9753 +119 +116 138075 076 067 009 00
083830 2432N 08055W 6963 02918 9759 +109 //// 140076 079 068 009 01
083900 2431N 08056W 6957 02918 9744 +115 +107 138074 075 068 007 00
083930 2430N 08057W 6966 02900 9741 +113 +110 136074 075 068 007 00
084000 2429N 08059W 6962 02897 9729 +115 +109 136073 074 067 007 00
084030 2427N 08100W 6966 02886 9733 +104 //// 137079 082 065 012 01
084100 2426N 08101W 6958 02887 9719 +110 //// 135079 080 067 007 01
084130 2425N 08102W 6962 02874 9700 +117 +112 135079 080 071 005 00
084200 2424N 08104W 6967 02857 9693 +112 +110 134081 083 073 007 00
084230 2423N 08105W 6962 02851 9676 +115 +110 134085 086 073 005 00
084300 2422N 08106W 6962 02838 9653 +124 +107 133089 090 072 005 00
084330 2421N 08107W 6963 02822 9633 +128 +106 129091 092 076 005 00
084400 2419N 08109W 6963 02803 9627 +116 +111 126096 098 079 009 00
084430 2418N 08110W 6958 02790 9610 +111 //// 131104 108 084 012 01
084500 2417N 08111W 6963 02754 9576 +114 //// 130112 115 090 039 01
084530 2416N 08112W 6987 02690 //// +108 //// 123111 117 100 075 05
084600 2415N 08114W 6931 02732 //// +112 //// 129115 120 105 077 05
084630 2414N 08115W 6916 02698 //// +127 //// 132092 116 /// /// 05
084700 2413N 08116W 6996 02562 //// +141 //// 123078 085 119 010 05
$$

[skillz]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

It's definitely shifting... This does NOT look good for Central Florida east coast....

[NDG]

Based on the latest pass on the NE quadrant I think the NHC is being generous of keeping it a Cat 4 for now.

084500 2417N 08111W 6963 02754 9576 +114 //// 130112 115 090 039 01
084530 2416N 08112W 6987 02690 //// +108 //// 123111 117 100 075 05
084600 2415N 08114W 6931 02732 //// +112 //// 129115 120 105 077 05
084630 2414N 08115W 6916 02698 //// +127 //// 132092 116 /// /// 05
084700 2413N 08116W 6996 02562 //// +141 //// 123078 085 119 010 05

[NDG]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

It's definitely shifting... This does NOT look good for Central Florida east coast....

Nonsense, it is still on track and cannot based it on loop just on few minutes, hurricanes wobble all the time.

[Aric Dunn]

ok taking a quick nap..

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100857
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 55 20170910
084730 2411N 08117W 6967 02571 //// +177 //// 127063 072 100 003 05
084800 2410N 08118W 6961 02564 //// +187 //// 127054 060 094 002 01
084830 2409N 08119W 6963 02538 //// +189 //// 129046 050 053 003 01
084900 2407N 08120W 6950 02539 9246 +196 +169 125030 042 033 002 01
084930 2406N 08121W 6967 02514 9247 +195 +153 115009 023 026 002 00
085000 2404N 08122W 6966 02513 9249 +190 +154 269007 011 023 001 00
085030 2402N 08122W 6964 02524 9261 +184 +156 264023 026 023 002 03
085100 2401N 08123W 6971 02522 9271 +184 +154 267027 027 025 002 03
085130 2400N 08124W 6965 02533 9274 +182 +155 277026 027 /// /// 03
085200 2402N 08125W 6962 02531 9262 +191 +143 298025 028 027 001 00
085230 2403N 08127W 6963 02527 9250 +207 +123 330029 031 025 000 00
085300 2404N 08128W 6971 02521 9251 +212 +112 351037 039 028 001 03
085330 2405N 08129W 6962 02539 9256 +215 +102 001045 048 039 001 03
085400 2406N 08130W 6970 02545 9272 +214 +107 009056 058 044 001 03
085430 2407N 08130W 6961 02558 9277 +210 +112 019057 059 /// /// 03
085500 2407N 08129W 6955 02553 9273 +198 +132 024052 057 036 003 00
085530 2407N 08127W 6961 02532 9254 +204 +132 026036 048 034 002 00
085600 2406N 08126W 6967 02516 9244 +204 +130 028021 031 025 002 00
085630 2405N 08124W 6961 02516 9255 +186 +132 070004 013 020 001 03
085700 2405N 08122W 6962 02517 9256 +185 +133 201010 013 023 001 00
$$

[wxmann_91]

924mb extrap pressure. This thing is deepening.

[hiflyer]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

It's definitely shifting... This does NOT look good for Central Florida east coast....

Nonsense, it is still on track and cannot based it on loop just on few minutes, hurricanes wobble all the time.

and jump and stall and shift and....damn things can't read models and ain't on railroad tracks...grin! But as fyi I always loop for hour(s) to get an overview...keeps me from running off in the wrong direction.