ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

It's definitely shifting... This does NOT look good for Central Florida east coast....

nothing has changed for the east coast...eye looks to come between key west and marathon..still have power, 3 days ago i thought i might lose my roof with the track

[jlauderdal]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

It's definitely shifting... This does NOT look good for Central Florida east coast....

Nonsense, it is still on track and cannot based it on loop just on few minutes, hurricanes wobble all the time.

and jump and stall and shift and....damn things can't read models and ain't on railroad tracks...grin! But as fyi I always loop for hour(s) to get an overview...keeps me from running off in the wrong direction.

thats what hurricanes do but when you smooth them out in time and also follow the nhc track they actually behave well if you dont react to every sat frame

[Clint_TX]

924mb extrap pressure. This thing is deepening.

As expected just the beginning

Forever known as Berg's folly

[NDG]

924mb extrap pressure. This thing is deepening.

Yeah, I was about to say that the pressure continues to slowly fall, may do so until it really starts getting hit by windshear and drier air later today.

085600 2406N 08126W 6967 02516 9244 +204 +130 028021 031 025 002 00

[NDG]

NHC is basing their forecast track from the Euro to the T!!!!

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100907
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 56 20170910
085730 2403N 08121W 6959 02526 9262 +184 +134 216024 028 027 002 03
085800 2404N 08119W 6971 02520 9278 +172 +144 204031 033 /// /// 03
085830 2406N 08119W 6947 02547 9278 +172 +136 184029 033 /// /// 03
085900 2407N 08120W 6984 02494 9273 +171 +141 160022 027 025 003 00
085930 2408N 08122W 6961 02517 9268 +168 +141 120018 021 026 001 00
090000 2409N 08124W 6965 02517 9261 +184 +131 082032 036 033 002 03
090030 2410N 08125W 6962 02535 9273 +186 +134 070041 044 047 002 00
090100 2412N 08127W 6962 02553 9288 +190 +139 063053 057 076 002 03
090130 2413N 08128W 6970 02565 9318 +182 +139 059073 082 094 001 03
090200 2414N 08129W 6966 02595 9376 +141 //// 060087 091 107 021 01
090230 2415N 08131W 6954 02661 //// +127 //// 064102 110 107 022 01
090300 2417N 08132W 6962 02690 9500 +119 //// 061101 105 096 042 01
090330 2417N 08132W 6962 02690 9537 +117 //// 057097 100 085 026 01
090400 2419N 08135W 6966 02743 9534 +146 +106 055101 103 078 014 00
090430 2420N 08136W 6963 02769 9565 +141 +105 055094 100 073 008 00
090500 2421N 08138W 6962 02790 9591 +133 +103 056090 092 068 008 00
090530 2423N 08139W 6963 02803 9612 +132 +102 055083 088 065 006 00
090600 2424N 08140W 6965 02816 9612 +146 +099 054077 081 061 006 00
090630 2425N 08142W 6963 02830 9635 +136 +104 057076 076 058 004 00
090700 2426N 08143W 6966 02840 9655 +129 +110 059072 075 055 005 00
$$
;

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Not convinced the inner eyewall is open, Harvey also had SW tilt in the upper 200mb and had a quick
fire RI.

[otowntiger]

NHC is basing their forecast track from the Euro to the T!!!!

So I guess the GFS is no longer to considered?

[Jevo]

Watching a 2 hour radar loop.... It looks due North... maybe NNW at a stretch.. Everglades city for secondary landfall at this trajectory

[Alyono]

going east of NHC. This has already turned NNW. Don't think this is a wobble.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

going east of NHC. This has already turned NNW. Don't think this is a wobble.

GEFS whf ens.was still up the spine

[otowntiger]

going east of NHC. This has already turned NNW. Don't think this is a wobble.

Agreed. Looks to me like it will pass to the east of key west.

[skillz]

I do not wanna see this storm shift east bringing higher sustained winds to already tornado prone Central Florida. Already 10 inches of rain just south of me in Fort Pierce (St. Lucie County) and also my pool is going to overflow if it rises another 3 inches. Still 20 hours out from the brunt of Irma............

[NDG]

NHC is basing their forecast track from the Euro to the T!!!!

https://i.imgur.com/Mw4ZFQ9.png

So I guess the GFS is no longer to considered?

According to the map no.
But interesting that the Euro still has wind gusts for the Orlando area tonight in the 80-90 mph range, also the entire immediate east coast with hurricane force wind gusts. It will be expanding and so will its winds as it starts hitting the windshear later today, according to the model.

[jlauderdal]

going east of NHC. This has already turned NNW. Don't think this is a wobble.

if i were in naples and everglades city i would be preparing for a direct hit based on this nnw heading..key west naval air station is going to get the eye..will be fascinating to get their instrument readings..key west nws just down the road to the west..can the key west radar site survive?

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100917
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 57 20170910
090730 2428N 08145W 6963 02852 9660 +135 +107 060069 070 058 005 00
090800 2429N 08146W 6964 02861 9669 +135 +104 060067 068 061 003 00
090830 2430N 08147W 6964 02869 9675 +141 +103 059067 067 047 002 00
090900 2431N 08149W 6962 02883 9683 +140 +104 057065 067 046 004 00
090930 2433N 08150W 6965 02886 9694 +140 +096 055063 064 051 001 00
091000 2434N 08152W 6964 02895 9704 +139 +099 057063 064 052 003 00
091030 2435N 08153W 6965 02900 9716 +133 +106 056061 062 050 001 00
091100 2436N 08154W 6965 02906 9723 +131 +106 054060 061 058 002 00
091130 2438N 08156W 6963 02912 9733 +127 +114 056058 059 060 004 00
091200 2439N 08157W 6967 02912 9730 +135 +109 056059 060 060 004 00
091230 2440N 08159W 6962 02923 9742 +127 +114 061058 060 064 007 00
091300 2441N 08200W 6963 02925 9763 +113 //// 069058 060 064 008 01
091330 2443N 08202W 6963 02930 9770 +110 //// 074063 066 065 008 01
091400 2444N 08203W 6969 02928 9780 +110 //// 077067 067 063 012 01
091430 2445N 08205W 6961 02942 9780 +112 //// 076067 070 066 010 01
091500 2447N 08206W 6966 02943 9790 +110 //// 078070 073 065 010 01
091530 2448N 08208W 6961 02953 9795 +110 //// 075069 072 065 008 01
091600 2449N 08210W 6966 02954 9800 +112 //// 073068 069 064 009 01
091630 2451N 08211W 6959 02967 9813 +106 //// 070070 071 063 008 01
091700 2452N 08213W 6965 02967 9822 +105 //// 067067 070 062 006 01
$$
;

[ncbird]

going east of NHC. This has already turned NNW. Don't think this is a wobble.

I agree. Been watching it for awhile on https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/south-florida/large-scale-loop.

[Airboy]

Pressure 929mb from latest sonde/VDM, same as the last pass.

[NDG]

The same thing we were saying yesterday afternoon that it was following the GFS track when it temporarily headed NW but during the afternoon it did a big wobble to the west to follow the Euro track, give it an hour or so to see if it is just a wobble or not.

[brghteys1216]

Looks like it's definitely heading more North verses Nw than NHC expected? I've noticed ukmet has been fairly reliable and shouldn't be ignored but neither should euro. Maybe between the two?