ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

They did not flagged the 119 knot SFMR wind so Irma is indeed a Cat 4.

URNT12 KNHC 100920
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 10/08:56:40Z
B. 24 deg 05 min N
081 deg 24 min W
C. 700 mb 2470 m
D. 119 kt
E. 046 deg 9 nm
F. 128 deg 120 kt
G. 047 deg 13 nm
H. 929 mb
I. 11 C / 3063 m
J. 21 C / 3050 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. C22
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 2911A IRMA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 120 KT 047 / 13 NM 08:46:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 8 KT
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 269 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Canelaw99]

Anyone have a site to find winds in the Homestead area? Wondering what I've got going on outside, but the NWS at Homestead Air Reserve Base stopped reporting at some point yesterday afternoon. Thanks!

[jlauderdal]

The same thing we were saying yesterday afternoon that it was following the GFS track when it temporarily headed NW but during the afternoon it did a big wobble to the west to follow the Euro track, give it an hour or so to see if it is just a wobble or not.

the push of water right now against the lower keys has to be incredible right now...for a system that's been left leaning for its entire life, now it seems to be right leaning, lets see how the next few hours play out but naples appears to be in big trouble..its really low there west of 41, they flood on a big tstorm day

we just had a feed band for the last 90 minutes that dropped at least 5 inches of rain, how we still have power is a wonder of the world

[jdjaguar]

Anyone have a site to find winds in the Homestead area? Wondering what I've got going on outside, but the NWS at Homestead Air Reserve Base stopped reporting at some point yesterday afternoon. Thanks!

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[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100937
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 59 20170910
092730 2518N 08242W 6963 03036 9870 +129 +078 055053 054 054 002 00
092800 2519N 08243W 6966 03035 9880 +122 +080 055058 059 054 002 00
092830 2520N 08245W 6961 03041 9884 +120 +081 056061 062 054 002 00
092900 2521N 08246W 6966 03035 9885 +116 +081 059061 062 053 002 00
092930 2522N 08248W 6963 03041 9889 +118 +080 061061 062 053 002 00
093000 2524N 08249W 6963 03043 9886 +123 +079 059058 061 052 001 00
093030 2525N 08251W 6965 03045 9884 +128 +078 058053 055 051 000 00
093100 2526N 08252W 6964 03049 9890 +125 +078 055051 052 051 001 00
093130 2527N 08253W 6965 03048 9886 +129 +076 055051 051 050 001 00
093200 2528N 08255W 6965 03051 9890 +129 +074 055053 054 051 001 00
093230 2530N 08256W 6964 03054 9894 +127 +073 056056 057 051 000 00
093300 2531N 08258W 6965 03056 9895 +126 +072 057059 059 051 000 03
093330 2532N 08259W 6962 03060 9898 +128 +071 058060 061 049 000 00
093400 2533N 08300W 6965 03060 9897 +132 +064 056060 061 049 000 00
093430 2535N 08302W 6963 03064 9903 +128 +064 059061 063 048 000 00
093500 2536N 08303W 6963 03067 9913 +124 +063 059062 064 048 000 00
093530 2537N 08305W 6963 03073 9917 +123 +062 060061 062 047 001 00
093600 2538N 08306W 6963 03075 9922 +124 +062 060060 060 048 000 00
093630 2540N 08307W 6964 03076 9920 +127 +062 061060 061 048 001 00
093700 2541N 08309W 6961 03082 9923 +127 +066 062060 061 048 001 00

[NDG]

Not only is shear going to hit Irma as it nears the 27th-28th latitude but it also will be wrapping some dry air into its circulation to give it that non-tropical look to it by the time it makes it to north FL. IMO.

[NDG]

Per the recon's fix it did take that more northerly heading, if it keeps it up it will make landfall just east of Key West.

[Maineman]

Eye being reorganized now (1-min-sat - 5-min-sat via menu)

WV

https://weather.us/satellite/803-w-241-n/satellit-water-vapor-superhd-1min.html#play

https://weather.us/satellite/803-w-241-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play

Click to further zoom in, (-) button for zoom out

[NDG]

Models also show Irma wrapping up some those low dewpoints into its circulation when it reaches north FL. Regardless it will still be a very powerful & big system that will carry a big flooding surge to the big bend area if the Euro's track is correct.

[Canelaw99]

Anyone have a site to find winds in the Homestead area? Wondering what I've got going on outside, but the NWS at Homestead Air Reserve Base stopped reporting at some point yesterday afternoon. Thanks!

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Scroll to bottom to additional forecasts &a info
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Thanks! That's the predicted winds, it seems, rather than actual. I can't find anywhere down here reporting actual winds or gusts. Oh well

[NDG]

Are there any working web cams this morning on the Keys?

[skillz]

I'm getting a feeling the UKMET is stealing the EUROs spotlight this time... unfortunately

[johngaltfla]

I do not wanna see this storm shift east bringing higher sustained winds to already tornado prone Central Florida. Already 10 inches of rain just south of me in Fort Pierce (St. Lucie County) and also my pool is going to overflow if it rises another 3 inches. Still 20 hours out from the brunt of Irma............

This storm is so large, it won't matter.

And yes, I would like a 10-20 mile shift EAST so I'm in the Western NOT Eastern eyewall. It makes one hell of a difference to those of us near the coast.

[Nederlander]

I'm getting a feeling the UKMET is stealing the EUROs spotlight this time... unfortunately

I have been impressed with the UKMET all season. It did a really good job with Harvey when the Euro and GFS were out to lunch..

[westcoastnative]

Are there any working web cams this morning on the Keys?

None that I can find. All of the ones I was watching earlier are down.

[skillz]

Two tornado warnings north of me in Brevard county in past hour

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Off course to the east right now. We'll see if that's a wobble or not, but will matter for the Keys.

[johngaltfla]

I'm getting a feeling the UKMET is stealing the EUROs spotlight this time... unfortunately

I have been impressed with the UKMET all season. It did a really good job with Harvey when the Euro and GFS were out to lunch..

It won't break my heart if it is the winner this time.

[tcast305]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 100957
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
600 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...600 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 IRMA VERY NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

Key West International Airport just measured sustained winds
of 39 mph (62 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). A private
weather station at Alligator Reef Light, Florida, recently reported
a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph
(132 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 81.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Moved NNE in the last hour, when from 24.1N 81.5W at 5AM to 24.2N 81.4W.

The UKmet 00Z showed due north movement. UKmet has been very good in spotting trends with Irma.

[Nederlander]

At this heading, Jeff P. may see another eyewall.. He is in Naples