ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

Off course to the east right now. We'll see if that's a wobble or not, but will matter for the Keys.

Nothing against my friends in Naples, but I liked the I-75 Naples-Bonita landfall a lot better than a West Coast raker which destroys even more property. The sooner she comes ashore, the better.

[tcast305]

Doesn't look good for my sister in Naples, also the more east it goes the higher the winds will be for us in Miami as well.

Thanks.

[NDG]

Looking better on satellite.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Off course to the east right now. We'll see if that's a wobble or not, but will matter for the Keys.

Nothing against my friends in Naples, but I liked the I-75 Naples-Bonita landfall a lot better than a West Coast raker which destroys even more property. The sooner she comes ashore, the better.

I don't, but I understand your reasoning. The I-75 route goes right over my house.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/906821281189908480

[Rail Dawg]

Lots of flashes here in Naples as the wires touch or have branches falling on them.

Soon enough will be the booms of transformers letting go.

Saw CNN and ABC doing their thing while walking the dog.

Wanted to walk before the coconuts start going horizontal.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[Alyono]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 100957
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
600 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...600 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 IRMA VERY NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

Key West International Airport just measured sustained winds
of 39 mph (62 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). A private
weather station at Alligator Reef Light, Florida, recently reported
a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph
(132 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 81.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Moved NNE in the last hour, when from 24.1N 81.5W at 5AM to 24.2N 81.4W.

The UKmet 00Z showed due north movement. UKmet has been very good in spotting trends with Irma.

has not moved NNE. The 9Z position is a 3 hour FORECAST position based off of their best track from 6Z

[WxEnthus]

Are there any working web cams this morning on the Keys?

Well... there are these yokels in Islamorada at the Marlin food store / gas station with intermittent streaming as their power goes on & off and their connection is failing. They're insisting on standing outside to film with a hand-held camera "documenting history" and joking about the store getting it's own following on twitter, like the blue shed did: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTlMLxyQmfI

And the Irish Kevin's cams are up, right now the view is inside but it has been a street cam previously. They must be running on generator power, as the power in KW has been out a while: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLQsRdqjoHU

[AdamFirst]

If this is going north and it's not a wobble...I'd like to say the GFS sniffed out this solution too.

[GCANE]

Strengthening North Eyewall
Approach to Keys

[johngaltfla]

Off course to the east right now. We'll see if that's a wobble or not, but will matter for the Keys.

Nothing against my friends in Naples, but I liked the I-75 Naples-Bonita landfall a lot better than a West Coast raker which destroys even more property. The sooner she comes ashore, the better.

I don't, but I understand your reasoning. The I-75 route goes right over my house.

Mine too. Remember the eye is over 20 miles wide. It makes a big difference which quadrant of the eyewall hits us.

[KBBOCA]

Just catching up... Lost internet around midnight my time (8pm EDT) last night and decided to get some sleep. Will post a few interesting tweets I've seen from the last hour or so.

Praying for God's mercies & protection on all in the Keys & SW FL today.

[tgenius]

Just lost power in west Kendall. Pretty good wind hitting up against my accordions right now. Rain too!

[KBBOCA]

Possible record pressure in Key West with Irma?

 https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/906799237127688192




 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/906804975585636352




Gusts up to 100

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/906808760466853888




And here's what John Morales said to expect:

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906809047730589696

[johngaltfla]

If this is going north and it's not a wobble...I'd like to say the GFS sniffed out this solution too.

The good news about that if the trend persists, is that there is less time over Florida Bay and the warm coastal waters. If the eye does follow the NHC solution, despite the shear, there is way too much fuel for this sucker to maintain low end Cat 4 to high Cat 3 strength for longer.

[Rail Dawg]

Lots of birds coming into parking garage where I'm sitting.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Nothing against my friends in Naples, but I liked the I-75 Naples-Bonita landfall a lot better than a West Coast raker which destroys even more property. The sooner she comes ashore, the better.

I don't, but I understand your reasoning. The I-75 route goes right over my house.

Mine too. Remember the eye is over 20 miles wide. It makes a big difference which quadrant of the eyewall hits us.

I know, I'll get the NE eyewall if the trend to the east continue...

[johngaltfla]

I don't, but I understand your reasoning. The I-75 route goes right over my house.

Mine too. Remember the eye is over 20 miles wide. It makes a big difference which quadrant of the eyewall hits us.

I know, I'll get the NE eyewall if the trend to the east continue...

Then let's both hope it keeps moving NNE!

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/906822738395807744