ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

The cloud tops will warm tonight and we should get a new convective burst west of -65w by morning.
Still on the WNW track Levi put up for shallow systems.

[GCANE]

Look closely at this loop and speed it up - just east of the towers (23N/63W) or there about clearly see rotation http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

I think this is going to be a tight little bugger.

[Aric Dunn]

first microwaves image of it from little over an hour ago. . hard to discern anything at this point.

[tropicwatch]

Where might the LLC be located? Could it be forming underneath any of that convection or is it racing out to the west? There seems to be some southerly inflow into the western side of the blob:

https://s17.postimg.org/4er6g7wqn/vis_lalo-animated.gif

Might be mid level but look at 21n - 62W

[Aric Dunn]

there is the vort that shot out of the convection a couple hours ago 22.79° N 65.76° W. moving wnw probably will see another vort shoot out just before dark .

[Orlando]

My arthritis pain has started back up again, although it is mild and wave like in degree of intensity. It started late last night but has worsened over the past few hours. Once the storm gets past my latitude and longitude I probably won't feel it unless it turns back toward me.

[boca]

I like to know why 94L is stationary and not moving to the west

[AtlanticWind]

It will take until this evening before computer models have fully incorporated the regrowth of 04L into their forecasts, but the European model from last night (0Z Monday) was already indicating some support for modest redevelopment. Most of the 50 members of the European ensemble run from 0Z Monday bring 04L to depression strength, and about a third of the ensembles produce a tropical storm, though only one of the 50 generates a hurricane. The ensemble is in close agreement on a westward track through the Bahamas in about 3-4 days, with much greater track divergence thereafter—solutions range from a track toward the Texas coast to an East Coast hugger that reaches Newfoundland!

From Dr Jeff Masters

See if models show anything tonight!

[Orlando]

Is there any such thing as a real time map of this storm? Everyone I've seen is at least 30 minutes behind.

[wxman57]

I like to know why 94L is stationary and not moving to the west

On a large-scale satellite loop I can see that the low-level feature is still moving west at the same speed. It's the convection that was stripped off and isn't progressing westward.

[Stormcenter]

Snippet from this afternoon's NWS discussion out of New Orleans.



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
351 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Long term...
the aforementioned pattern should continue through at least Friday
and from then on the forecast diverges...but both solutions
include higher rain chances for the weekend. The GFS and the European model (ecmwf)
both slide a boundary southward over the weekend and that alone
will increase rain chances...but the wild card for the weekend is
the remnants of td4. Both models take this area across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. From there the GFS keeps
it very weak and more of an open wave as it moves into the Gulf
and it gets absorbed into the boundary over the southern US. That
alone points to a wet weekend for a large portion of the south.
The European model (ecmwf) on the other hand is a bit more stronger with the
remnants and has it more of a closed low moving into the Gulf and
slowly moving over the forecast area over the weekend into early
next week. This would result in a more of chance for
concentrated...or a more organized chance of tropical rains. This
airmass that it would have to work with would definitely be
tropical in nature and that could lead to some very efficient and
heavy rains. This is something that has to be watched over the
next few days as rain chances will definitely go up in future
forecast updates. 13/mh

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Great question Boca,

I have been wondering that same thing most of the day.

[OntarioEggplant]

If this isn't in the outlook by 8 PM, the NHC is going to be caught with their pants down again looking too conservative.

[boca]

I'm having my doubts this will develop because the ULL is shearing this to death and tomorrow it might be gone.

[Hurricaneman]

I like to know why 94L is stationary and not moving to the west

On a large-scale satellite loop I can see that the low-level feature is still moving west at the same speed. It's the convection that was stripped off and isn't progressing westward.

What I see is a broad low with multiple vortices with some under the convection and some west of the convection and until that sorts itself out it won't deepen too quickly

[Blown Away]

Low level clouds keep moving WNW and this mid level area seems stationary. Not sure what will continue to sustain this mid level area?

[NDG]

http://i68.tinypic.com/nltt1s.gif

Low level clouds keep moving WNW and this mid level area seems stationary. Not sure what will continue to sustain this mid level area?

It will most likely die out over the next few hours, IMO.

[Bocadude85]

[Stormcenter]

But it's not really suppose to do anything until it reaches the gulf so it doesn't make any difference if it dies now or not. The remnants will still make it into the Gulf next weekend.

http://i68.tinypic.com/nltt1s.gif

Low level clouds keep moving WNW and this mid level area seems stationary. Not sure what will continue to sustain this mid level area?

It will most likely die out over the next few hours, IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

technically it was not supposed to do anything at all but should have died 3 days ago.. but its maintained and has organized more despite the models.. so its the tropics and we could wake up to a TS or wake up to a convection-less open wave..