ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

That northern vort has the greatest angular vorticity.. and well... very deep convection is building with it. the one near the coast will die if no convection returns. watching that northern area now.

[hriverajr]

Looks like the northern vortex is becoming the dominant one. What's the future intensity looking like? The models have been all over the place.

I honestly don't see that northern vortex. I do seem a system that is still not very well organized with evidence of some southwesterly shear

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the northern vortex is becoming the dominant one. What's the future intensity looking like? The models have been all over the place.

I honestly don't see that northern vortex

full zoom, goes 16. you can see it go under the cloud debris just after the first little bit of convection builds with it then you can see the inflow into that convection switch to a southerly direction.

[hriverajr]

Oh well.. still don't see it..time will tell.

[Roxy]

Assuming good recon soon, how early until that data feeds the models? Tomorrow morning? Afternoon??

[Snowman67]

Up in Chicago until Friday. May need to make an early return depending on how things pan out. Appreciate all the updates. Hopefully this steers clear of the Houston area. Had enough action with Ike. I prefer to go to the storm rather than it come to me...

[psyclone]

looks like the fuse is lit on this one. you folks in the western gulf should get ready as we don't have too much lead time. things can escalate quickly this time of year. will happily watch from the bleachers on the other side of the bathtub.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Looks like the northern vortex is becoming the dominant one. What's the future intensity looking like? The models have been all over the place.

I honestly don't see that northern vortex. I do seem a system that is still not very well organized with evidence of some southwesterly shear

Yeah agree with the not very well organised. Earlier posts suggestion's of its quickly organising appear incorrect. R the Hype.

[hohnywx]

Assuming good recon soon, how early until that data feeds the models? Tomorrow morning? Afternoon??

The 00z models will have new data from the NOAA Gulfstream flight done this afternoon.

[hohnywx]

Hot off the press:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure associated with the remnants of Harvey is moving off
the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into the southern Gulf of
Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical
depression or tropical storm to form on Wednesday or Thursday
while the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf
coast on Friday. Regardless of development, this system is likely
to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a
prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of
Texas, southwestern Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early
next week. This system could also produce storm surge and tropical
storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast
later this week, and interests from northeastern Mexico to
southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor its progress.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office for more information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[cycloneye]

Wide area.

interests from northeastern Mexico to
southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor its progress.

[hriverajr]

Wide area.

interests from northeastern Mexico to
southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor its progress.

Yep they aren't sure either....

[weatherguy425]

Wide area.

interests from northeastern Mexico to
southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor its progress.

Yep they aren't sure either....

Or following their own "don't focus on the center line" advice. Regardless of exact landfall location, impacts will be far-reaching. Named system, or its remnant likeness, may impact several states.

[GCANE]

F17 passed over about 20 min ago.
Strong, high=rain rate cell north of Cancun.

[GCANE]

29.77mb at
Ing Antonio Sarmiento en Champoton
south of Campeche

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe a center may be consolidating just off the NW tip of the Yucatan. It seems to be moving NNW at the moment. I thought at first it was just a spin rotating around the low, but it has remained steady the last few frames in that direction.

[Steve]

Dang, going to have to buy a generator because I got more invested in my salt tank than the generator costs. It's been almost 50 years since CC TX has received a hit. I hope our luck continues.

Lol I'm in CC too let's track it together you down lol

HEB already has people buying water.....I'm down I'll watch your posts.

Hey Karl. Maybe you get everything done early and can get some sets in - just hopefully not in your neighborhood. I hope y'all make out alright, and the greedy side of me has to ask if safe to do so, hook your people up with some photos and videos. Same goes for Texas's hurricanemasters. Y'all be safe.

[gatorcane]

Not much shear around the WGOM: shear has let up across much of the Atlantic too:

[tolakram]

SLIDER shortwave

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5140.5&y=6502.5&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Lol I'm in CC too let's track it together you down lol

HEB already has people buying water.....I'm down I'll watch your posts.

Hey Karl. Maybe you get everything done early and can get some sets in - just hopefully not in your neighborhood. I hope y'all make out alright, and the greedy side of me has to ask if safe to do so, hook your people up with some photos and videos. Same goes for Texas's hurricanemasters. Y'all be safe.

Thanks dude I'm gonna video some footage of Harvey if it hitstays near CORPUS if it's east I may drive towards Matagorda Bay but I think I'll get some action here at Mustang island I'll be safe