ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Cpv17]

saw that 18Z NAVGEM not a good location... GEF are all up the down the coast as well...wow the right shift continues...don't want to be a NHC making a call on this...

NHC didn't change its cone. Still aiming towards Texas/Mexico border.

[Alyono]

HWRF is becoming just as useless as it was 10 years ago. How can it oscillate between Tampico and Brownsville every run?

[Kingarabian]

saw that 18Z NAVGEM not a good location... GEF are all up the down the coast as well...wow the right shift continues...don't want to be a NHC making a call on this...

NHC didn't change its cone. Still aiming towards Texas/Mexico border.

Yeah, and I have no problem with it. The models track record this season has been pretty poor so they'll probably wait for a pre longed consensus. Plus the EPS were tightly clustered on just north of the TX/MX border landfall.

[NDG]

A closer look at the 18z GFS.

[South Texas Storms]

HWRF is becoming just as useless as it was 10 years ago. How can it oscillate between Tampico and Brownsville every run?

Haha 6z/18z runs are south and the 0z/12z runs are north. Been that way for the past several model cycles.

[Cpv17]

saw that 18Z NAVGEM not a good location... GEF are all up the down the coast as well...wow the right shift continues...don't want to be a NHC making a call on this...

NHC didn't change its cone. Still aiming towards Texas/Mexico border.

Yeah, and I have no problem with it. The models track record this season has been pretty poor so they'll probably wait for a pre longed consensus. Plus the EPS were tightly clustered on a TX/MX border landfall.

Completely agree.

[ROCK]

NHC didn't change its cone. Still aiming towards Texas/Mexico border.

Yeah, and I have no problem with it. The models track record this season has been pretty poor so they'll probably wait for a pre longed consensus. Plus the EPS were tightly clustered on a TX/MX border landfall.

Completely agree.

and that's the issue...define pre longed consensus? last I looked we have 4 days tops..mot much time to get a pre long consensus...IMO just sayin

[ronjon]

18z GFS now tracking pretty close to 12z Euro. The entire Tx coastline might be in play if Harvey rides north and then NE.

[sphelps8681]

I wouldn't go that far yet. We're getting to the point in time where the models should start to lock in the next few runs. A TX landfall looks likely right now.

SW LA might....all depends where that ULL and trof timing and any center relos...very complicated but worse case scenario is something to bomb out 84-96hrs out worst MET's nightmare.

Louisiana is out of play here clearly it barely has a chance to hit Texas I think corpus is as far as this will hit on first landfall !!!
However it could stall and go back over the gulf afterwards ! Southern texas needs to prepare

We don't even have a COC yet. No one from the border to LA is out of the woods yet.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

The average of all the models take ex Harvey into the border I averaged them all out and frankly none show landfall east of Matagorda Bay!

[Sciencerocks]

It is possible looking at the ecwmf that this system "could" rides up the coast of Texas without landfall and turn eastward south of La/AL and finally into florida. That is a pretty strong trough to its north.

If the trough is stronger and it makes it more northward at a slower rate within the next 72 hours = chances increase.

Chances of hurricane look good.

[davidiowx]

The average of all the models take ex Harvey into the border I averaged them all out and frankly none show landfall east of Matagorda Bay!

Please display your map of averages. Thanks.

[stormreader]

A closer look at the 18z GFS.

Man, that's a long way from Tampico-Vera Cruz!

[Christiana]

Once Harvey is organized, recon data is in the models, a COC is clearly determined and verified by the NHC, then perhaps a RELIABLE model consensus will be reached. I am a complete novice but all the model flip flopping clearly illustrates at this point IMO no more than a very generalized synopsis of reasonable possibilities. This is fascinating. I bought the big box of movie theatre butter Orville single serves today for the days ahead of model watching, analyzing and even the expected doses of -removed- that are entertaining. At times anyway. Edit: At TIMES!!!!!! (saying it with certainty.)

[ROCK]

Once Harvey is organized, recon data is in the models, a COC is clearly determined and verified by the NHC, then perhaps a RELIABLE model consensus will be reached. I am a complete novice but all the model flip flopping clearly illustrates at this point IMO no more than a very generalized synopsis of reasonable possibilities. This is fascinating. I bought the big box of movie theatre butter Orville single serves today for the days ahead of model watching, analyzing and even the expected doses of -removed- that are entertaining. At times anyway. Edit: At TIMES!!!!!! (saying it with certainty.)

welcome....whatever I say I have no idea what I am talking about...just forewarn...

[Alyono]

SW LA might....all depends where that ULL and trof timing and any center relos...very complicated but worse case scenario is something to bomb out 84-96hrs out worst MET's nightmare.

Louisiana is out of play here clearly it barely has a chance to hit Texas I think corpus is as far as this will hit on first landfall !!!
However it could stall and go back over the gulf afterwards ! Southern texas needs to prepare

We don't even have a COC yet. No one from the border to LA is out of the woods yet.

doesn't matter. You are thinking as if the models are from 25 years ago where you had to input a center into the fields. These dynamical models easily form their own center

[SoupBone]

Louisiana is out of play here clearly it barely has a chance to hit Texas I think corpus is as far as this will hit on first landfall !!!
However it could stall and go back over the gulf afterwards ! Southern texas needs to prepare

We don't even have a COC yet. No one from the border to LA is out of the woods yet.

doesn't matter. You are thinking as if the models are from 25 years ago where you had to input a center into the fields. These dynamical models easily form their own center

True, but having a more precise CoC leads to better overall output, correct?

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Louisiana is out of play here clearly it barely has a chance to hit Texas I think corpus is as far as this will hit on first landfall !!!
However it could stall and go back over the gulf afterwards ! Southern texas needs to prepare

We don't even have a COC yet. No one from the border to LA is out of the woods yet.

doesn't matter. You are thinking as if the models are from 25 years ago where you had to input a center into the fields. These dynamical models easily form their own center

Exactly these things aren't ancient lol

[Craters]

saw that 18Z NAVGEM not a good location... GEF are all up the down the coast as well...wow the right shift continues...don't want to be a NHC making a call on this...

Yeah, Rock -- right through Kemah... and Alvin, dang it! We have labs at JSC that have to be on the ground floor for instrument stability. Storm surge is our worst nightmare. *Gack*

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

This is funny when it slams into northern Mexico or the border I'll be here to say I told you so