ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Drop 19.
Very moist air column.
Easily can support a strong warm core.

[tolakram]

Not all moist, west side is still dry. This is #18



source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

use the drop down below the image labeled: Most Recent Dropsonde Sounding (click to enlarge)

[GCANE]

:uarrow:

Not all moist, west side is still dry. This is #18

Looks like that wil be the only thing keeping a lid on this.

[Hurrilurker]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick trigger finger from NHC. It's probably a bit too early for hurricane watches but the sooner they can start advisories the better.

Yes, with this getting turned loose into the hot gulf, it could potentially blow up fast. Since it typically take a few days for everyone to get the message, they shouldn't be sleeping on it. But obviously they want to see what happens now that it's back over water. Tough call for them between having too quick a trigger and allowing enough time for preparations if something does happen.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 20.8°N 90.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[TheStormExpert]

Video discussion on Harvey by Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/900160913034145795

[EquusStorm]

Turns out my return flight from Vancouver a week from today has a layover in Houston. That is going to be... interesting. Perhaps it will have cleared out a bit by then.

[HurricaneBrain]

Possible center reformation?

[MGC]

The circulation has gotten much better defined today. If convection can pop overnight good chance of a depression by morning.....MGC

[cycloneye]

This part of the 8 PM TWO is the most important one as it will be the main threat.

Regardless of development, this system is likely
to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a
prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of
Texas, southwestern Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early
next week.

[JaxGator]

Not much shear around the WGOM: shear has let up across much of the Atlantic too:

https://s30.postimg.org/qlocgrcvl/wg8sht.gif

Wow, that's quite the drop of shear there... We got lucky with 92L (so far), but Harvey might be a different story for either the Western Gulf Coast or wherever Harvey will go with the "center" consolidating as it emerges into the Gulf. Lower shear and very warm water (with the deep heat content) are not a good mix granted the time Harvey is forecasted to be over water. There's some dry air to its west, but there's also a ton of moisture too work with per water vapor loop.

[Alyono]

The low shear in the nw gom is because its underneath the upper low

[weatherguy425]

The low shear in the nw gom is because its underneath the upper low

But, a decent signal that shear will remain relatively low as anticyclone builds over Harvey [err, likely-Harvey].

[Dean4Storms]

The low shear in the nw gom is because its underneath the upper low

But, a decent signal that shear will remain relatively low as anticyclone builds over Harvey [err, likely-Harvey].

Yes, the ULL is forecast to move northward which should allow an anticyclone to get established over this before it reaches the TX Coast. Could see some impressive pressure drops once that occurs.

[Steve]

The low shear in the nw gom is because its underneath the upper low

Progress seems to have slowed a bit with the western move of the ULL. I know the main center got stretched and rotated, but it looks like it's a bit of a stuck pattern. Looks like a lot of dry air initially pumping at re-Harvey from the SW which is going to inhibit development some now but that flow may aid the circulation later. I wonder if it takes a day or day and a half to really get going, and maybe that's a hair farther south?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

[StormChaser75]

definitely watching Harvey like a hawk right now here in corpus. Also got some extra water just in case.

[xironman]

It may be enough east to miss the worst of the dry air

[sphelps8681]

The low shear in the nw gom is because its underneath the upper low

But, a decent signal that shear will remain relatively low as anticyclone builds over Harvey [err, likely-Harvey].

Yes, the ULL is forecast to move northward which should allow an anticyclone to get established over this before it reaches the TX Coast. Could see some impressive pressure drops once that occurs.

I agree.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think this has another 24 hrs before its a classified system. Looks more like an elongated surface trof right now. The upper low, however, is definitely starting to lift north with a N/S orientation. The vorticity also needs to get stacked (its not currently)

[tropicwatch]

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