ATL: HARVEY - Models

[ROCK]

saw that 18Z NAVGEM not a good location... GEF are all up the down the coast as well...wow the right shift continues...don't want to be a NHC making a call on this...

Yeah, Rock -- right through Kemah... and Alvin, dang it! We have labs at JSC that have to be on the ground floor for instrument stability. Storm surge is our worst nightmare. *Gack*

hope not...not in a position like I was in 08...

[Steve]

We don't even have a COC yet. No one from the border to LA is out of the woods yet.

doesn't matter. You are thinking as if the models are from 25 years ago where you had to input a center into the fields. These dynamical models easily form their own center

Exactly these things aren't ancient lol

They aren't. But outside of a zealot or two, I don't think anyone here would bet their life on one. ****, I wouldn't bet your life on one unless the payoff was good.

About 80-90 minutes to NAM. I don't have my old links to the early and late cycle guidance from 18z and 00z. That's the next games in town.

[ColdMiser123]

Yep and it looks to be coming in a bit farther south as well so far.

HMON looks similar to 12z in track, but it's stronger as well.

The 18z HMON looks similar to the 18z GFS.

18z GEFS coming in fairly bullish.

Picture?

Ticked north from 12z. Most members are now north of the border with a respectable storm system.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

saw that 18Z NAVGEM not a good location... GEF are all up the down the coast as well...wow the right shift continues...don't want to be a NHC making a call on this...

Yeah, Rock -- right through Kemah... and Alvin, dang it! We have labs at JSC that have to be on the ground floor for instrument stability. Storm surge is our worst nightmare. *Gack*

hope not...not in a position like I was in 08...

LoL this isn't going that far East most models bring this into the border and watch the GFS shift south next run then once that happens everyone who lives in Galveston area is gonna say it's just one run like I'm saying ..... don't base your whole forecast off of one model run especially when it's from the GFS

[ROCK]

Steve is right to look to the NAM runs...gives us a sense of the trof digging and ULL track out to 84hrs...

[ROCK]

Steve is right to look to the NAM runs...gives us a sense of the trof digging and ULL track out to 84hrs...

GEFS 18Z just about covers the entire TX coast....wow

[Steve]

Steve is right to look to the NAM runs...gives us a sense of the trof digging and ULL track out to 84hrs...

Word. I don't like it for anything happening South of 25N. But it gives us lay people a reasonable tighter look at the CONUS and N Gulf
In the near term. I don't mind it on tropical systems but they have to at least be 5 degrees into the subtropics for me to pay any attention to their outputs for a given system. But you get to see what's happening downstream and that's underrated.

[stormlover2013]

Texashurricane master we aren't 10 days out my friend, models getting a grip on trough and ridge breaking down, climatology my friend

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Texashurricane master we aren't 10 days out my friend, models getting a grip on trough and ridge breaking down, climatology my friend

Are you really gonna play the climatology card ? Because if soo something this far south would slam into Mexico! And this year models have been off in the medium range and thanks for proving my point that we aren't 10 days out we are 3 to 4 days out and all models show a south Texas hit if you find me a legitimate model showing landfall east of matagorda Bay that would be the day lol ! Clearly the consensus is near the Texas Border and this is the most likely scenario at the moment the ridge is breaking down but there is no indications this will get pulled towards Texas Louisiana border or even Galveston!!!!

[HurricaneBrain]

Alright so lets disregard the GFS and Euro's latest runs and base our hurricane preparation solely on the set-in-stone forecast by The Texas Hurricane Master

This is funny when it slams into northern Mexico or the border I'll be here to say I told you so

[Hammy]

Steve is right to look to the NAM runs...gives us a sense of the trof digging and ULL track out to 84hrs...

Word. I don't like it for anything happening South of 25N. But it gives us lay people a reasonable tighter look at the CONUS and N Gulf
In the near term. I don't mind it on tropical systems but they have to at least be 5 degrees into the subtropics for me to pay any attention to their outputs for a given system. But you get to see what's happening downstream and that's underrated.

NAM appears to be doing relatively well in the tropics too--I think it was the first to indicate the remnants taking a track closer to the northern Yucatan.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Alright so lets disregard the GFS and Euro's latest runs and base our hurricane preparation solely on the set-in-stone forecast by The Texas Hurricane Master

This is funny when it slams into northern Mexico or the border I'll be here to say I told you so

Well clearly most models slam this into the border the evidence is there you just gotta look buddy ..... my forecast is exactly the same as the Euro and GFS .... which in fact is a neareally border hit on first landfall thanks for proving my point once again !

[Portastorm]

Alright gang ... take a deep breath ... relax. Let's cut the sniping at each other and be respectful.

[TexWx]

Ok, who has the ban hammer?

Also, when is the next TWO 1am?

[stormlover2013]

euro, Gfs, navy, and jma are all on board, I don't want a storm here I've gone through Ike and rita, I don't wish cash im a realist, the weakness is there, models are seeing that, 4 days out if the models shift back south then our models struggled bad with this system/

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Ok, who has the ban hammer?

Also, when is the next TWO 1am?

Yes you are correct

[South Texas Storms]

0z TVCN (model consensus) takes it inland near Brownsville and then tracks up the Rio Grande. That would likely be near the track the NHC would call for if they were issuing advisories.

[Steve]

Steve is right to look to the NAM runs...gives us a sense of the trof digging and ULL track out to 84hrs...

Word. I don't like it for anything happening South of 25N. But it gives us lay people a reasonable tighter look at the CONUS and N Gulf
In the near term. I don't mind it on tropical systems but they have to at least be 5 degrees into the subtropics for me to pay any attention to their outputs for a given system. But you get to see what's happening downstream and that's underrated.

NAM appears to be doing relatively well in the tropics too--I think it was the first to indicate the remnants taking a track closer to the northern Yucatan.

I know. And Cindy. But I'm not wanting to acknowledge that because it's the NAM. Haha. I am also starting to come around to a South TX to the border hit where I thought it would be north of Franklin but probably still in NE MX. Maybe South Padre or Kings Ranch were northern track extremes. Now, maybe Port Lavaca or possibly above that would seem like the northern edge of possibility. We will see where things trend tonight and whether we get consolidation tomorrow to hopefully tighten that window up

[Steve]

0z TVCN (model consensus) takes it inland near Brownsville and then tracks up the Rio Grande. That would likely be near the track the NHC would call for if they were issuing advisories.

Busy days ahead for you and Greg if he's still down there. How far west does the TVCN have it go as a remnant low before it gets too muddy - (assuming component tracks diverge significantly after 5 days)? Seemed like some were taking it across S TX, some were over to about San Antonio before coming up while others liked a track up toward Houston and The Triangle and maybe as far north as Central LA before heading ENE. Apologies if you haven't seen whatever the complimentary runs they used for the 00z.

[sphelps8681]

Louisiana is out of play here clearly it barely has a chance to hit Texas I think corpus is as far as this will hit on first landfall !!!
However it could stall and go back over the gulf afterwards ! Southern texas needs to prepare

We don't even have a COC yet. No one from the border to LA is out of the woods yet.

doesn't matter. You are thinking as if the models are from 25 years ago where you had to input a center into the fields. These dynamical models easily form their own center

But why do I hear a lot is we don't have a COC so how do we know? Been on here now 10 years I have a heard it a lot. What is wrong with old school?