ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[weathaguyry]

I think that short term trends are the best idea for right now, the fact that the NHC scheduled Recon for tomorrow shows that there is definitely something to watch

[Blown Away]

Popcorn convection over the mid-level blob.

[gatorcane]

850mb vorticity is the strongest it has been if you step through the 3 hour increments, but convection is unimpressive:

[AtlanticWind]

4L Looks better than the MDR system that's getting 10 percent chance of development.

[northjaxpro]

Popcorn convection over the mid-level blob.

Yes. I have been monitoring this closely.for the past few hours. Aric also has keenly.been watching this as well. If the convective burst expands as the evening progresses, then we may be seeing some interesting changes with this system. Just.have to see how it all evolves.

[AtlanticWind]

Does seem to starting to refire convection. It could be poised for another big pulse.

[AtlanticWind]

I've been under the impression that when this system reaches 70 -72 west is when we will see real development assuming
It still is a viable entity at that point

[tarheelprogrammer]

Could be seeing center reformation under the convection blob? Vorticity signature is looking better at 850.

[gatorcane]

Could be seeing center reformation under the convection blob? Vorticity signature is looking better at 850.

Yeah was wondering about that given the strong 850mb vort signature. But without deep convection, the vort would just gradually spin down. Shear might be beginning to finally relax as the cloud tops have more of a fanning symmetric look.

[WeatherHoon]

What are you guys seeing? The satellite feed I'm using shows the convection being almost completely snuffed out. Guessing mine isn't updated. Somebody post a new one.

[northjaxpro]

I've been under the impression that when this system reaches 70 -72 west is when we will see real development assuming
It still is a viable entity at that point

I am in agreement with you about this. Once the entity traverses in the vicinity of the Bahamas within the next 36 hours, we should see an area of much lighter wind shear and an anticyclone should develop.

[Hammy]

Development isn't shown until about day 6-7--if there's any NHC mention I'd assume it wouldn't be before mid-week. Certainly seems unlikely that anything will happen prior to reaching Florida.

Then why have recon scheduled for the next 2 days?

Recon is likely to gather data to go into the models so we have a clearer picture of what's going to happen. I still think any redevelopment would occur in the Gulf.

[AtlanticWind]

With convection starting to pop again,it will be interesting to see how this looks tomorrow morning,
Tuesday will be key day IMHO.

[ScottNAtlanta]

What are you guys seeing? The satellite feed I'm using shows the convection being almost completely snuffed out. Guessing mine isn't updated. Somebody post a new one.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[cycloneye]

AL, 04, 2017071100, , BEST, 0, 225N, 661W, 25, 1014, DB

As of 00:00 UTC Jul 11, 2017:

Location: 22.5°N 66.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1014 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1015 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

[Blown Away]

Persistent deep convection and cyclonic spin, I'm puzzled how this is not a suspect area...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Persistent deep convection and cyclonic spin, I'm puzzled how this is not a suspect area...

Also looks like outflow is setting up on the south side as well

[tailgater]

Looks to my untrained eyes like the wave seems to be splitting, the NW portion moving west faster and weakening as it get father from the eastern part of the wave that has convection. This can be seen by looking at the 850 vorticity over the last 24 hrs.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vorZ.GIF

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here is why thunderstorms keep popping




Upper divergence is high right over the thunderstorms

[AtlanticWind]

Persistent deep convection and cyclonic spin, I'm puzzled how this is not a suspect area...

I don't think you schedule recon and activate an invest if it is not a suspect area,
as to why they won't mention it on the TWO I can only guess they are waiting for some model support.