ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Since this is the leftovers from Harvey, does this become Harvey if it forms again? And I'm surprised it's not tagged as an Invest yet? Or will it skip the Invest stage since it is the remnants of a former storm?

[tropicwatch]

Does confirm circulation is under convection, now it just needs the low to close.

[quote="panamatropicwatch"]Latest WindSat:

[/quoteD

[sphelps8681]

Since this is the leftovers from Harvey, does this become Harvey if it forms again? And I'm surprised it's not tagged as an Invest yet? Or will it skip the Invest stage since it is the remnants of a former storm?

Yes.

[HurricaneBrain]

And the center of that convection looks to be about 50-75 miles NNE of the latest marine surface plot.

Does confirm circulation is under convection, now it just needs the low to close.

Latest WindSat:

http://tropicwatch.info/WindSat082220170004.jpg

[tarheelprogrammer]

And the center of that convection looks to be about 50-75 miles NNE of the latest marine surface plot.

Does confirm circulation is under convection, now it just needs the low to close.

Latest WindSat:

http://tropicwatch.info/WindSat082220170004.jpg

I remember someone pointing that out as the spot earlier The NHC has went with a position further SW, but they are the experts.

[HurricaneBrain]

X is roughly where the latest plot is, and I'm seeing a closing center further north, anyone else agree?

[stormreader]

And if the center is in fact organizing there (50-75 miles NNE of what was expected), I think it increases the chances for a landfall farther north and east. Its what I've been saying. If true, lets wait for this to be inputed into models.

[ROCK]

I have it roughly in that position where the X is above...

whats scary is it is not wasting any time in consolidating a center. I mean it just moved of the Yuc geezz

[crimi481]

Possible that 92l and Harvey hook up - center forms between them - central gulf. ULL may help the cause

Not a pro

[Aric Dunn]

its pretty apparent that northern vort/circ I mentioned earlier developed and took over quite rapidly. convective pattern has improved quite a bit.

which by the way is north of all the models intialized positions. models likely to shift towards eastern texas now.

[sphelps8681]

its pretty apparent that northern vort/circ I mentioned earlier developed and took over quite rapidly. convective pattern has improved quite a bit.

which by the way is north of all the models intialized positions. models likely to shift towards eastern texas now.

I am in eastern Texas. What do you thing our rain count will be?

[Aric Dunn]

its pretty apparent that northern vort/circ I mentioned earlier developed and took over quite rapidly. convective pattern has improved quite a bit.

which by the way is north of all the models intialized positions. models likely to shift towards eastern texas now.

I am in eastern Texas. What do you thing our rain count will be?

That is tough to say for anyone. depending on what model you look at currently. its not good either way. always best to just prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

the eratic motion in some of the models is concerning. lets just hope it does not make landfal, stall, then move back over water organize again and well you know... not good.

[sphelps8681]

its pretty apparent that northern vort/circ I mentioned earlier developed and took over quite rapidly. convective pattern has improved quite a bit.

which by the way is north of all the models intialized positions. models likely to shift towards eastern texas now.

I am in eastern Texas. What do you thing our rain count will be?

That is tough to say for anyone. depending on what model you look at currently. its not good either way. always best to just prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

the eratic motion in some of the models is concerning. lets just hope it does not make landfal, stall, then move back over water organize again and well you know... not good.

Went through Rita and Ike. Home is not flood prone and stock up today on supplies. I am ready!!

[Alyono]

One quick observation, the current shear is a LOT higher than the models are analyzing. SHIPS had about 5 kts. It's more like 15, but will soon decrease

[Blinhart]

Latest WindSat:

http://tropicwatch.info/WindSat082220170004.jpg

So as soon as it closes it off it will be minimum 45 Kt TS.

[ROCK]

One quick observation, the current shear is a LOT higher than the models are analyzing. SHIPS had about 5 kts. It's more like 15, but will soon decrease

Eh 15 is not bad..probably of that ULL next to it

[AxaltaRacing24]

One quick observation, the current shear is a LOT higher than the models are analyzing. SHIPS had about 5 kts. It's more like 15, but will soon decrease

Eh 15 is not bad..probably of that ULL next to it

Not enough to kill it unfortunately

[Hurricaneman]

With winds like that on the windsat this may already be a tropical storm with 50mph winds, if so imo this is already stronger than any model has this up to this point which gets me increasingly worried

[ROCK]

Got a good anticyclone over head but yeah the ULL not in the best position currently..25knoys of shear close to it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Alyono]

do not use windsat for wind magnitudes