ATL: HARVEY - Models

[TexWx]

Heck as far south as they put the "L," I wouldn't doubt this would be Mexico, or border.

[South Texas Storms]

0z TVCN (model consensus) takes it inland near Brownsville and then tracks up the Rio Grande. That would likely be near the track the NHC would call for if they were issuing advisories.

Busy days ahead for you and Greg if he's still down there. How far west does the TVCN have it go as a remnant low before it gets too muddy - (assuming component tracks diverge significantly after 5 days)? Seemed like some were taking it across S TX, some were over to about San Antonio before coming up while others liked a track up toward Houston and The Triangle and maybe as far north as Central LA before heading ENE. Apologies if you haven't seen whatever the complimentary runs they used for the 00z.

Yeah Steve, busy times ahead. TVCN tracks it up near Del Rio before it loses the system.

[SoupBone]

0z TVCN (model consensus) takes it inland near Brownsville and then tracks up the Rio Grande. That would likely be near the track the NHC would call for if they were issuing advisories.

Busy days ahead for you and Greg if he's still down there. How far west does the TVCN have it go as a remnant low before it gets too muddy - (assuming component tracks diverge significantly after 5 days)? Seemed like some were taking it across S TX, some were over to about San Antonio before coming up while others liked a track up toward Houston and The Triangle and maybe as far north as Central LA before heading ENE. Apologies if you haven't seen whatever the complimentary runs they used for the 00z.

Yeah Steve, busy times ahead. TVCN tracks it up near Del Rio before it loses the system.

So Brownsville to Del Rio? That would bring some serious rain to those areas.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[tolakram]

Back from the eclipse, just had time to look at Weatherbell 12Z euro plots.

It hits near Brownsville and deepens after it starts moving inland up the Texas coast. Really?

The double back and extra strike was just icing on the cake. Certainly the track has to be taken seriously, but something seems just a bit off.

[Steve]

Gotcha. That seems reasonable. if the consensus is right, an upper piece would probably shear off with the surface low raining itself out eventually. That's a different outcome for points in Texas North and East. Also it would mean heavy rainfall for all of Deep South Texas. There were a couple of pockets of moderate drought down there last I looked so flash flooding could easily be the biggest threat with the TVCN consensus track. Thanks again for the tip.
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I think it was Brownsville NWS that expects faster forward speed at landfall which would be better than a slow approach for obvious reasons.

[gatorcane]

The Euro OP has been pretty bad after about 5-6 days. So has the GFS ensembles even in the short to medium range. That Euro run looks suspect to me. Most models are near the border.

[msp]

0z NAM rolling... (insert qualifiers about using NAM for TC forecasting here)

but is stronger and farther NE compared to 18z thru 45hr

[SoupBone]

The Euro OP has been pretty bad after about 5-6 days. So has the GFS ensembles even in the short to medium range. That Euro run looks suspect to me. Most models are near the border.

This may very well be why the NHC is cautiously saying little right now. Certainly not jumping on the Euro train yet. Maybe they see something that makes them believe it's still ultimately a TexMex system. Regardless, it could bring widespread flooding in those areas.

[TexWx]

Yes this "center" is much further south than I thought.

This may be Tex/Mex.

[Steve]

0z NAM rolling... (insert qualifiers about using NAM for TC forecasting here)

but is stronger and farther NE compared to 18z thru 45hr

I think this is the farthest west it's come off the Yucatán, but it feels the front and gets tugged maybe even with a hint of NE between 57 and 60 hours at 32km res. I think that Harvey is just too far South for NAM.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=141


La bound ??

[SoupBone]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017082200&fh=75&xpos=0&ypos=141


La bound ??

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=161

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM rolling... (insert qualifiers about using NAM for TC forecasting here)

but is stronger and farther NE compared to 18z thru 45hr

I think this is the farthest west it's come off the Yucatán, but it feels the front and gets tugged maybe even with a hint of NE between 57 and 60 hours at 32km res. I think that Harvey is just too far South for NAM.

I agree Steve. Shows it moving very slowly once it gets into the Gulf, while the other models show it continuing to move along at a decent pace until inland.

[Cpv17]

That NAM run looks similar to the run the Euro had a few nights back.

[sphelps8681]

When does the next model run come out?

[ROCK]

Well this is the farthest the NAM has been east and seems plausible IMO. Steering collapses ULL and trof create the weakness. Though it's the NAM it is the trof that it stills showing digging.

[Cpv17]

When does the next model run come out?

Depends which model you're talking about.

[stormlover2013]

10:30- gfs, Cmc- 11:00, ukmet-11:30, navy-12:00, euro-1:00