ATL: IRMA - Models

[hurricaneCW]

You better hope for a recurve now because there are some devastating tracks being depicted. Those "I" storms are always terrifying.

[tolakram]

Euro 0Z run (also posted on first page)

[GeneratorPower]

Euro 0Z run (also posted on first page)

That ridge. Man. Look at it. Nowhere for Irma to go. South FL to the Gulf of Mexico. Verbatim that implies a double major hit (two landfalls).

[tolakram]

GFS 06Z Aug 31: (this and the 0Z run in first post).

I did not use the 500 vort so someone may want to update those.

[GeneratorPower]

GFS 06Z Aug 31: (this and the 0Z run in first post).

I did not use the 500 vort so someone may want to update those.

GFS plowed Irma right into the ridge. How does that make sense? Note the ridge is depicted similarly to the EURO.

[KWT]

If you look at the upper pattern there is a clear weakness that the GFS tries to take it into but it lifts out meaning Irma carries on NW/WNW but the upper ridge blocks any furthetr northward progress until about 252hrs when the western edge breaks down.

Of course if this set-up happens, don't expect the ridge to break down quite so rapidly and it would IMO just carry on plowing westwards.

[tolakram]

GFS 06Z Aug 31: (this and the 0Z run in first post).

I did not use the 500 vort so someone may want to update those.

[ img]http://i.imgur.com/eFR7lRk.gif[/img]

GFS plowed Irma right into the ridge. How does that make sense? Note the ridge is depicted similarly to the EURO.

You can't see the ridge on that map, those are surface pressures. You want to look at 500mb or higher (lower mb).

[WeatherEmperor]

@tolakram,

The overnight Euro run looks similar to Georges 1998 in terms of its track through the Caribbean. Studying the model, what are the chances Irma goes south of Cuba and stays in the Caribbean the whole time??


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[Digital-TC-Chaser]

No that was a decent shift by the GFS nevermind intensity crapshoot..



That's a bit more than a decent shift.

we can argue about the adjectives but the trend on the gfs is towards the euro and that we can all agree on

TBH i dont see GFS trending towards the EC. Those 00Z runs are split. Apples and oranges.

[Dean4Storms]

06z GFS run with a lot less trough making it to the SE US, more in line with the ECM. One only has to look at Temp Anom differences between 00z and the 06z run to see it.

[caneman]

Guess a lot will depend if we really do get a gulf system prior to Irma getting to U.S. it seems that is what.GFS is factoring in?

[jlauderdal]

we can argue about the adjectives but the trend on the gfs is towards the euro and that we can all agree on

TBH i dont see GFS trending towards the EC. Those 00Z runs are split. Apples and oranges.

gfs trending west, we dont even need to go deeper than that

[WeatherEmperor]

TBH i dont see GFS trending towards the EC. Those 00Z runs are split. Apples and oranges.

gfs trending west, we dont even need to go deeper than that

Any chance the Euro keeps shifting South...making Irma a Caribbean cruiser??


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[jlauderdal]

TBH i dont see GFS trending towards the EC. Those 00Z runs are split. Apples and oranges.

gfs trending west, we dont even need to go deeper than that

Any chance the Euro keeps shifting South...making Irma a Caribbean cruiser??


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yes, that is on the table

[SFLcane]

Created small loop of EPS ensembles...

[clambite]

GFS 06Z Aug 31: (this and the 0Z run in first post).
OK, I guess I can breath easy now...I'm in Morehead city, NC.AND THE BULLSEYE IS ON ME !
I did not use the 500 vort so someone may want to update those.

GFS plowed Irma right into the ridge. How does that make sense? Note the ridge is depicted similarly to the EURO.

[txwatcher91]

Interesting trends overnight. The Euro shifted south a little and the GFS shifted south/west as well, closer to the Euro solution. At this point if I were in Puerto Rico and surrounding islands I would be CLOSELY following this as they will likely be the first impact zone. If this undergoes an EWRC in a few days too then we will see the size of the storm, and wind field, expand considerably.

[p1nheadlarry]

You better hope for a recurve now because there are some devastating tracks being depicted. Those "I" storms are always terrifying.

The I storm usually forms at the end of September, but with above-average seasons they form right in the heart of hurricane season. Probably why so many have been memorable.

[p1nheadlarry]

Created small loop of EPS ensembles...

[tolakram]

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