ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

By the way, anybody have damage reports for Cuba? They got raked by a major hurricane for a day and I haven't heard anything from there.

I've friends that have family in Caibarien, where the southern eyewall went over, and they lost almost everything. So, I would say that damages are severe to catastrophic in the area directly affected.

[Sciencerocks]

URNT15 KNHC 101732
AF306 3011A IRMA HDOB 49 20170910
172300 2543N 08200W 6969 02850 9682 +123 //// 058070 071 062 005 01
172330 2545N 08201W 6965 02862 9682 +127 +116 061068 069 057 004 00
172400 2546N 08203W 6966 02873 9691 +129 +112 060066 067 058 003 00
172430 2547N 08204W 6967 02880 9709 +124 +109 062065 066 058 004 00
172500 2548N 08206W 6967 02890 9717 +125 +104 064063 065 058 001 00
172530 2550N 08207W 6970 02895 9724 +125 +103 066064 064 056 003 00
172600 2551N 08209W 6963 02911 9739 +122 +101 068064 064 058 003 00
172630 2552N 08211W 6970 02910 9749 +119 +106 068062 064 060 004 00
172700 2554N 08212W 6965 02922 9753 +120 +107 072061 062 058 005 00
172730 2555N 08214W 6968 02922 9758 +121 +111 074063 063 063 005 00
172800 2557N 08215W 6965 02935 9767 +120 +116 077062 063 061 004 00
172830 2558N 08217W 6968 02934 9779 +119 //// 081064 066 059 006 01
172900 2559N 08219W 6970 02939 9787 +122 //// 083061 066 061 006 01
172930 2601N 08220W 6964 02949 9789 +121 //// 085063 064 063 005 01
173000 2602N 08222W 6962 02956 9809 +121 +121 086074 080 062 007 00
173030 2604N 08224W 6980 02949 9841 +117 +117 075084 086 063 013 03
173100 2605N 08225W 6965 02973 9846 +116 +116 072077 084 061 028 00
173130 2606N 08227W 6957 02992 9853 +115 +115 072072 075 058 029 03
173200 2608N 08229W 6967 02981 9848 +117 +117 069073 075 056 011 00
173230 2609N 08230W 6970 02985 9849 +118 +118 070069 071 056 009 00
$$

[NDG]

Irma going straight for Marco Island and Naples, unless it makes a big wobble to the west.

[Dave C]

By the way, anybody have damage reports for Cuba? They got raked by a major hurricane for a day and I haven't heard anything from there.

I've friends that have family in Caibarien, where the southern eyewall went over, and they lost almost everything. So, I would say that damages are severe to catastrophic in the area directly affected.

They had what you always fear in Florida, a hurricane eyewall raking you from one end to the other.

[abajan]

Who's like me, and has had enough of Irma, and just wants her to die?!

[Rail Dawg]

Reporting live from Naples.

Blinding horizontal rain.

Visibility 500 ft

Wind in parking garage gusting to 40mph.

No surge until after eye passage.

[MrStormX]

By the way, anybody have damage reports for Cuba? They got raked by a major hurricane for a day and I haven't heard anything from there.

Check this article:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/wor ... 651125001/

Damage was pretty bad.

[lando]

So far nothing in port orange. People are driving and a few restaurants are open. Just some light rain.

What restaurants in port orange are open??

[Dave C]

Radar appears to show southern eyewall trying to close off, maybe frictional affects tightening as it closes on the coast?

[ConvergenceZone]

Once the eyewall area hits the coast near Naples in just a few short hours, slow weakening will start to commence, with probably slight drops in winds every 1 to 2 hours. The slow increase of shear will help with that as well

[stormreader]

By the way, anybody have damage reports for Cuba? They got raked by a major hurricane for a day and I haven't heard anything from there.

I've friends that have family in Caibarien, where the southern eyewall went over, and they lost almost everything. So, I would say that damages are severe to catastrophic in the area directly affected.

It was a 155mph storm at that point. The eye definitely penetrated the coast there. Had to be bad.

[stormreader]

Radar appears to show southern eyewall trying to close off, maybe frictional affects tightening as it closes on the coast?

In some respects, the storm looks better now than when it approached the keys. Story will be surge, but gusts should be significant.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like Cape Romano will be the landfall point.

[Bocadude85]

Winds still increasing here, definitely have gusts to hurricane force.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 17:14:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°25'N 81°44'W (25.4167N 81.7333W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSW (212°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 300° at 79kts (From the WNW at ~ 90.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the SSW (194°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 936mb (27.64 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)

L. Eye Character: Open in the south, S
M. Eye Shape: Not Available

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 100kts (~ 115.1mph) which was observed 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SSE (151°) from the flight level center at 15:02:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNW (328°) from the flight level center at 17:20:00Z

[Steve]

Very similar to pre-tsunami. I didn't realize waters receded that much due to hurricanes.
Prayers for all

They most often don't. This is offshore flow ahead of the storm on west and SW facing bays, inlets and rivers. It would have been the opposite coming up along the east coast of Florida where the flow north of the storm would have been out of the east and an onshore flow. Once the storm passes, flow around the backside of the storm out of the SW puts the water back in.

We have been watching numerous tv broadcast channels out of Miami and SW Florida. Worst reports I've heard was that some of the keys were overwashed. Most of the local news reports are showing downed trees and waterless bays and canals. There was some discussion of water in Miami Beach as well. Watch out for the eyewall approaching the coast. Looks like some of the most prolonged weather since last night has been over in Ft Lauderdale on the east coast - nothing terrible reported there but nonstop.

[GCANE]

[TheStormExpert]

Winds still increasing here, definitely have gusts to hurricane force.

Same here. Any idea what your sustained winds and gusts might be?

[AdvAutoBob]

It's incredible how few folks are online here with an historic landfalling storm in SW FL and possible worst case scenarios of surge affecting Naples / Ft. Myers.

But so many S2K members are in FL, so obviously dealing with power loss / comms loss / exhaustion / evacuation...
Other key members (CycloneEye, MSBEE) are dealing with tragedy caused by Irma in the Caribbean...
And we've got a whole ton of folks in Houston and other Harvey-hit areas of Texas trying to rebuild their lives...

I've been monitoring, etc. and really too busy to post.

That being said, as of now (1:45):
North Ft Myers, steady winds now around 40-45MPH with gusts around hurricane strength. Numerous palm fronds on the ground at the moment, and I'm sure we'll have some downed trees once the eyewall hits (around 6PM according to local media)

[CrazyC83]

Recon might not find the strongest winds since the NE quad is over land (at least over the Everglades) right now.