ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Models
12Z GFS animation
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M a r k
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Models
tolakram wrote:Tweets and images from Ryan Maue
[tw eet]https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/877226773913767937[/tweet]
ECMWF 12z landfalls TS Cindy into Houston ... could be some strong winds ... keep watch on the coast ... 990 mb is minor hurricane pressure
saved image
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/W7qgD2a.png[/img]
With Cindy being such a large storm wouldn't we need even lower pressure for it to acquire hurricane intensity?
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
Now making a E ENE move, based on latest sat. loop.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
A naked swirl now - perhaps NHC upgraded too soon. I dunno - these systems that are borderline are so subjective to call. Weather will be about the same either way so other than us purists not sure it matters all that much.
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
RL3AO wrote:One of the problems it is having is the inflow from the southeast, which is probably more buoyant and wanting to rise, is getting directed into the convection to the NE of the low and not into the low itself. Maybe if the low can start pivoting to the NE as it goes through the cyclonic loop, it might attract more of that SE flow into the center leading to new thunderstorm development over the center.
That inflow air from the SE is pretty juicy.
Theta-E in it is rapidly rising and last analysis from COD shows 365.
Later tonight, when the uppper troposphere cools off, bouyancy will increase and could see more convection kick off.
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
Yeah it looks like the CoC isnt really moving, just going through a cycle. Western side looks better today, relatively.
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
Stormcenter wrote:Looks like Cindy wants to take a dive SSE. Yeah she is doing exactly what the models said she would.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1
its called a cyclonic loop and I think the NAM has been showing it....
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
Stormcenter wrote:Now making a E ENE move, based on latest sat. loop.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1
These wobbles mean nothing
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
Surprised they went with tropical vs subtropical. Either way, when's the last time we had two storms at once in June?
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
Mean nothing? I'm not sure I buy into that but hey your opinion.
southwest southerner wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Now making a E ENE move, based on latest sat. loop.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1
These wobbles mean nothing
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- HurricaneBrain
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
If the NAM can sniff out a cyclonic loop then maybe we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss their forecast of a hurricane into Galveston Bay
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
Hammy wrote:Surprised they went with tropical vs subtropical. Either way, when's the last time we had two storms at once in June?
1968
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
Funny how we pick and choose things we believe about models. So the NAM is good for loops but not strength.
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Models
tolakram wrote:Tweets and images from Ryan Maue
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/877226773913767937
ECMWF 12z landfalls TS Cindy into Houston ... could be some strong winds ... keep watch on the coast ... 990 mb is minor hurricane pressure
saved image
EURO pretty firm on this fro some runs now....no since to go against it now with the GFS ensembles inching west.
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
Stormcenter wrote:Funny how we pick and choose things we believe about models. So the NAM is good for loops but not strength.
NAM has actually done well recently with track (and in 2015 was the only model to develop Claudette before it happened.) The problem with intensity is that it's a very high resolution model, so it's prone to overplaying the impact of convective development.
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
Stormcenter wrote:Now making a E ENE move, based on latest sat. loop.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1
just a normal cyclonic loop. they happen when systems are developing and when they are stalled.
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
Now, can it develop some new storms near the center once it starts moving NE? It should be able to...
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
RL3AO wrote:Now, can it develop some new storms near the center once it starts moving NE? It should be able to...
I dont know.. but cimss shear maps really want to put that upper outflow pattern on top of it.. its really close ,... just keeps inching its way closer..
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
So far that ULL isn't going nowhere.........
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm
As it starts to rotate to the east and then NE in the cyclonic loop, you can already see the NE part of the center become more agitated. Probably will get a new convective burst soon. It'll inevitably get sheared away, but it's still fun to watch these things!
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