ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

What be the odds for two closed lpa's eventuating from this wave one N and another smaller but a tad stronger trailing vertically due S.

[hd44]

Tropical depression looks to be forming to me. I always look for persistent convection and it is surely doing so this evening. Cimss 850 has a decent vorticity so this is likely to be a td by 8am.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

You needs some concrete evidence,ascat microwave or pressure data.
Or the NHC calling it.

[Aric Dunn]

What be the odds for two closed lpa's eventuating from this wave one N and another smaller but a tad stronger trailing vertically due S.

very unlikely.

[mcheer23]

A broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Harvey
is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Although thunderstorm
activity has increased over the northern portion of the system
tonight, recent satellite wind data indicate that low pressure
area lacks a well-defined circulation at this time. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is very likely to form today or tonight while
the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the western Gulf
of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late
Friday.

Regardless of development, this system is likely to slow down once
it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of
heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern
Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week. This
system could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or
hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this
week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required
later today for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas,
and southwestern Louisiana. Interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for more information. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate the
low this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Bizzles]

No change w/ the 2AM TWO. Prly wait for recon later this morning.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230532
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Harvey
is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Although thunderstorm
activity has increased over the northern portion of the system
tonight, recent satellite wind data indicate that low pressure
area lacks a well-defined circulation at this time. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is very likely to form today or tonight while
the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the western Gulf
of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late
Friday.

Regardless of development, this system is likely to slow down once
it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of
heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern
Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week. This
system could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or
hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this
week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required
later today for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas,
and southwestern Louisiana. Interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for more information. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate the
low this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[La Breeze]

How much of an impact should "Harvey" have on the Miss. Coast?

[Steve]

Stay tuned.

[Bizzles]

How much of an impact should "Harvey" have on the Miss. Coast?

Should be a lot more information coming out throughout today.

[tropicwatch]

Here is the latest ASCAT and is showing a different wind pattern.

[Hammy]

With that organization pattern I don't see this reaching more than a low-end TS. Isn't that quite a bit farther south than the models initialized?

[tropicwatch]

I don't know why there is such a difference between the WindSat and ASCAT wind patterns. Don't think I have seen such a difference before.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

:uarrow: With that organization pattern I don't see this reaching more than a low-end TS. Isn't that quite a bit farther south than the models initialized?

Looking @ wind fields on models that show the estimates, a TS upto a 70kt cane is what
the models i looked @ have been consistently hinting.

[GCANE]

Looks like its beginning to crank.
Got one going off very close to the CoC.
Just to the east of it.
A little earlier than I thought.

[GCANE]

BoC Buoy
Winds picking up.
Pressure dropping.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Yeah the cell to the s is looking the stronger.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 630,23.903
S
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 630,23.903

[hd44]

Imo this is a td... probably will need sat image to confirm if it is. Anyway convection persists for the past 12 hours... this is indicating of development.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: With that organization pattern I don't see this reaching more than a low-end TS. Isn't that quite a bit farther south than the models initialized?

better chance this makes cat 4 than there is of this being low end TS (now, I wouldn't forecast cat 4!). Hurricane probability is very high.

[GCANE]

Yeah the cell to the s is looking the stronger.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 630,23.903
S
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 630,23.903

The ULL does appear to be enhancing Harvey's Updraft.
Cantore was right.
Looks like Harvey is positioned almost immediately south of the ULL.
Classic position where waves fire off.
In this case however the Lower-Level Vorts are already closed off.

[GCANE]

New TCFA Posted