ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Definitely strengthening.
Seeing radial gravity waves on the cirrus per Slider.
Looks like towers are back spinning on the eye wall.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[GCANE]

Rain rate on the eyewall picking up.

[GCANE]

Round 2.

[northjaxpro]

Irma definitely is beginning to ramp up. We may be seeing a intensification period the next 24-48 hours as the anticipated southwest dive will track her over a bit warmer sea surface temperatures out in the tropical Atlantic.

Well, the latest EURO really opened my eyes for sure down for potential impacts to the United States over the next week.

[weathaguyry]

Maybe a major at 5:00 if she keeps strengthening

[GCANE]

[bg1]

Round 2.

When did they change the charts to go up to 8.5?

[RL3AO]

When did they change the charts to go up to 8.5?

The automated technique can go above 8.0, unlike the original method from Dvorak.

[ColdMiser123]

18z Best Track up to 100 KT/967 mb

[KWT]

When did they change the charts to go up to 8.5?

Probably when Patrica went upto 8.3 raw.

Yeah certainly ramping back up again and probably is a major hurricane again given the way the eye has cleared back out and gthe way the eyewall is presented right now.

[Blown Away]

Looks like Irma starting to accelerate W ahead of the HP...

[RL3AO]

ATCF Best Track
System ID: AL11 (IRMA)
1800 UTC Sep 01, 2017
Location: 18.8°N, 38.5°W
Central Pressure: 967 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 100 kt (115 mph)
Type: Category 3 Hurricane (HU)
ACE (Storm Total): 6.6225

[northjaxpro]

To me, this is beginning to have the look of Dora in 64. Highs blocking to the north and a turn in Fl mid upper peninsula. Categor 4 at peak, 3 at land fall. I just don't see this storm running the ally between the high cells merging above it. Think of a running back looking to go off tackle, seeing the hole blocked and making for the end sweep. Lastly, the move north is not going to be very fast in forward motion either.

Another interesting variable is the projected storm following. Hopefully it can shear it a bit.

Mouton, I have not chatted to you in awhile. Yeah, it would be extremely rare to get a direct landfall from the east in this part of the state. Dora is the last hurricane to that in this area. However, we have the potential blocking Highs which may be in place next week.

I do not unfortunately see any escape routes for Irma to go through . The odds of someone or areas along the East Coast of the U.S., and the Bahamas getting impacted by this potential monster are unfortunately increasing.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Which Atlantic storm generated the most amount of ACE in history? I have a feeling Irma will challenge that.

[Blown Away]

01/1745 UTC 18.8N 38.4W T5.0/5.0 IRMA

NHC 5am: 12H 01/1800Z 18.5N 38.2W 100 KT 115 MPH

Irma already west of 12 hr prediction from 5am this morning... Irma is accelerating IMO...

[Extratropical94]

Which Atlantic storm generated the most amount of ACE in history? I have a feeling Irma will challenge that.

San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 with 73.6 units.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulat ... one_energy

[RL3AO]

Which Atlantic storm generated the most amount of ACE in history? I have a feeling Irma will challenge that.

1899 Hurricane with ~74 Units. Or Ivan with about 70 if you want something a little more verifiable.

[gatorcane]

The big picture, wide atlantic-view animation:

[northjaxpro]

ULL to the northwest of Irma has been weakening steadily throughout the day. I do not see that feature inhibiting Irma at all down the road.

[Blown Away]

Gator, that wide pic looks like WSW in last frame?