ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Gator, that wide pic looks like WSW in last frame?

looks west now. Here is a close-up:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Siker]

Could easily see them bumping up to 105-110kt at next advisory.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, everyone should be on heightened alert. This is absolutely a possibility, as there are ensemble members which take Irma into the Gulf of Mexico, especially the Eastern GOM.

Everyone from the Gulf Coast to New England , and our neighbors in the Bahamas, Northeast Caribbean Islands, and Bermuda needs to be paying attention throughout the holiday weekend.

[Mouton]

[quote][/quote]Mouton, I have not chatted to you in awhile. Yeah, it would be extremely rare to get a direct landfall from the east in this part of the state. Dora is the last hurricane to that in this area. However, we have the potential blocking Highs which may be in place next week.

I do not unfortunately see any escape routes for Irma to go through . The odds of someone or areas along the East Coast of the U.S., and the Bahamas getting impacted by this potential monster are unfortunately increasing."

Yes jaxpro, I am a bit concerned. Try to only post these days when I see something that may affect us in this area. Dora fortunately was decreasing at landfall but had been a 4 asea. As you note, if that last Euro is accurate as to the placement of the ridges and continental high, there is no place for it to go except to either stall or go west IMO. A lot can happen but it appears the trof may move up to the northeast and the high fill in behind it from the east. Ten days out though, lots can happen but the models are becoming a bit tighter now. As we are right back from the coast, will be planning on a evac move around the 9th.

[cycloneye]

This will be a facinating thread to see how strong Irma gets as the different missions go along.There will be radar missions starting on Sunday followed by the other missions to sample the hurricane starting on Monday with Gonzo flying on that date too. A Recon Discussion Thread has been made to allow this thread to go only with all the data without interruptions.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 01 SEPTEMBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-092

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS
ON HURRICANE IRMA EVERY 12 HOURS STARTING AT 03/19Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIX MISSIONS ON HURRICANE IRMA AT 04/1800Z
NEAR 16.4N 52.5W.
B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA
WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730Z.

[jdray]

Mouton, I have not chatted to you in awhile. Yeah, it would be extremely rare to get a direct landfall from the east in this part of the state. Dora is the last hurricane to that in this area. However, we have the potential blocking Highs which may be in place next week.

I do not unfortunately see any escape routes for Irma to go through . The odds of someone or areas along the East Coast of the U.S., and the Bahamas getting impacted by this potential monster are unfortunately increasing."

Yes jaxpro, I am a bit concerned. Try to only post these days when I see something that may affect us in this area. Dora fortunately was decreasing at landfall but had been a 4 asea. As you note, if that last Euro is accurate as to the placement of the ridges and continental high, there is no place for it to go except to either stall or go west IMO. A lot can happen but it appears the trof may move up to the northeast and the high fill in behind it from the east. Ten days out though, lots can happen but the models are becoming a bit tighter now. As we are right back from the coast, will be planning on a evac move around the 9th.

To top it off, Dora hit on 9/9. Same time of year, same blocking setup?

[northjaxpro]

Mouton, I have not chatted to you in awhile. Yeah, it would be extremely rare to get a direct landfall from the east in this part of the state. Dora is the last hurricane to that in this area. However, we have the potential blocking Highs which may be in place next week.

I do not unfortunately see any escape routes for Irma to go through . The odds of someone or areas along the East Coast of the U.S., and the Bahamas getting impacted by this potential monster are unfortunately increasing."

Yes jaxpro, I am a bit concerned. Try to only post these days when I see something that may affect us in this area. Dora fortunately was decreasing at landfall but had been a 4 asea. As you note, if that last Euro is accurate as to the placement of the ridges and continental high, there is no place for it to go except to either stall or go west IMO. A lot can happen but it appears the trof may move up to the northeast and the high fill in behind it from the east. Ten days out though, lots can happen but the models are becoming a bit tighter now. As we are right back from the coast, will be planning on a evac move around the 9th.

Yes, Mouton, I share those same views you pointed out in your post and I have discussed them on the threads. I have to admit that both the latest GFS and in particular, the latest EURO run really opened my eyes a bit.
Yes, Mouton, I fear that the odds of Irma potentially impacting the CONUS are unfortunately increasing with time the latest trends are very, very concerning indeed!

[jaxfladude]

To me, this is beginning to have the look of Dora in 64. Highs blocking to the north and a turn in Fl mid upper peninsula. Categor 4 at peak, 3 at land fall. I just don't see this storm running the ally between the high cells merging above it. Think of a running back looking to go off tackle, seeing the hole blocked and making for the end sweep. Lastly, the move north is not going to be very fast in forward motion either.

Another interesting variable is the projected storm following. Hopefully it can shear it a bit.

Mouton, I have not chatted to you in awhile. Yeah, it would be extremely rare to get a direct landfall from the east in this part of the state. Dora is the last hurricane to that in this area. However, we have the potential blocking Highs which may be in place next week.

I do not unfortunately see any escape routes for Irma to go through . The odds of someone or areas along the East Coast of the U.S., and the Bahamas getting impacted by this potential monster are unfortunately increasing.

I'm not liking this since I live in Jax....so soon after Harvey, to now have this threat of Irma for me or anyone else for that matter...

[Michele B]

01/1745 UTC 18.8N 38.4W T5.0/5.0 IRMA

NHC 5am: 12H 01/1800Z 18.5N 38.2W 100 KT 115 MPH

Irma already west of 12 hr prediction from 5am this morning... Irma is accelerating IMO...

This can't be good, can it?

Won't this mean she'll miss the weakening in the ridge that'll help turn her northward?

[GCANE]

Looks like that'll be a stadium eye.

[northjaxpro]

To me, this is beginning to have the look of Dora in 64. Highs blocking to the north and a turn in Fl mid upper peninsula. Categor 4 at peak, 3 at land fall. I just don't see this storm running the ally between the high cells merging above it. Think of a running back looking to go off tackle, seeing the hole blocked and making for the end sweep. Lastly, the move north is not going to be very fast in forward motion either.

Another interesting variable is the projected storm following. Hopefully it can shear it a bit.

I am here in Jax as well. Now, let us remember that we still are about 7-8 days from this impacting potentially the region, and we juat have to monitor the situation and hope for the best. The main thing is to start thinking about your PREPS NOW!! Be ready to act!! This is the time to do all these things.

Mouton, I have not chatted to you in awhile. Yeah, it would be extremely rare to get a direct landfall from the east in this part of the state. Dora is the last hurricane to that in this area. However, we have the potential blocking Highs which may be in place next week.

I do not unfortunately see any escape routes for Irma to go through . The odds of someone or areas along the East Coast of the U.S., and the Bahamas getting impacted by this potential monster are unfortunately increasing.

I'm not liking this since I live in Jax....so soon after Harvey, to now have this threat of Irma for me or anyone else for that matter...

[cycloneye]

This thread is to have discussions about all the missions that will be collecting the data By making this thread it allows the Main Recon Thread to be only for posting of the data.

[JaxGator]

Looks like Irma starting to accelerate W ahead of the HP...

The hurricane has also grown in size some following its recent EWRC and current ramp up.

[northjaxpro]

To me, this is beginning to have the look of Dora in 64. Highs blocking to the north and a turn in Fl mid upper peninsula. Categor 4 at peak, 3 at land fall. I just don't see this storm running the ally between the high cells merging above it. Think of a running back looking to go off tackle, seeing the hole blocked and making for the end sweep. Lastly, the move north is not going to be very fast in forward motion either.

Another interesting variable is the projected storm following. Hopefully it can shear it a bit.

Mouton, I have not chatted to you in awhile. Yeah, it would be extremely rare to get a direct landfall from the east in this part of the state. Dora is the last hurricane to that in this area. However, we have the potential blocking Highs which may be in place next week.

I do not unfortunately see any escape routes for Irma to go through . The odds of someone or areas along the East Coast of the U.S., and the Bahamas getting impacted by this potential monster are unfortunately increasing.

I'm not liking this since I live in Jax....so soon after Harvey, to now have this threat of Irma for me or anyone else for that matter...

I am here in Jax as well. Now, let us remember that we still are about 7-8 days from this impacting potentially the region, and we juat have to monitor the situation and hope for the best. The main thing is to start thinking about your PREPS NOW!! Be ready to act!! This is the time to do all these things

[cycloneye]

Let's get this thread going from now with this question.What will be the lowest pressure that will be measured on Irma?

I go with 910 mbs.

[RL3AO]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 960.9mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.7 6.0

Raw ADT values up to 6.0. I'd go with 105 kts in the advisory.

[caneseddy]

915

[Cunxi Huang]

Very typical Cat 3 Dvorak pattern. Amazing.

[BYG Jacob]

910 for me as well.

[GCANE]