ATL: IRMA - Models

[RL3AO]

Hello! I see that southwest turn by day 6 gets Irma close to the Caribbean islands. Could it hit the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico? What's the ridge forecasts say?

Both the DR and PR should watch this very closely. Any impact, if it were to occur, would be in about 8 days.

[meriland29]

Just woke up, I see the GFS is really favoring the EC as per 06z. But it looks like the intensity is a tad less intense in comparison to 00z.

[TheStormExpert]

Just woke up, I see the GFS is really favoring the EC as per 06z. But it looks like the intensity is a tad less intense in comparison to 00z.

Nope, 06z GFS strengthens Irma to 896 millibars at least.

[p1nheadlarry]

Here is this mornings NAO forecast update. Notice the vast majority of red forecast lines are in positive territory. Maybe 2 or 3 only are nagative. Appears very likely the NAO stays positive the next 7-10 days. This may explain why the overnight Euro run had more ridging at the end of the run. We need to keep watching the NAO careful in the upcoming days IMO


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Also need to keep an eye on negative dips as we get into October. Could see a burst like we did with Nicole and Otto.

[meriland29]

Just woke up, I see the GFS is really favoring the EC as per 06z. But it looks like the intensity is a tad less intense in comparison to 00z.

Nope, 06z GFS strengthens Irma to 896 millibars at least.

I do see 898, but only when close up on the system. Funny, the same map (MSLP & 10mph wind) shows different intensities depending on whether you look at it up close or not..

[tolakram]

Just woke up, I see the GFS is really favoring the EC as per 06z. But it looks like the intensity is a tad less intense in comparison to 00z.

Nope, 06z GFS strengthens Irma to 896 millibars at least.

I do see 898, but only when close up on the system. Funny, the same map (MSLP & 10mph wind) shows different intensities depending on whether you look at it up close or not..

The Hi Res version is labeled Surface Pressure and 10m wind and is only available in some regions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2017083106&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=400

[RL3AO]

Trend continues where the GFS is overdoing the WNW motion in the short term.

[SouthFLTropics]

[Hurricane Andrew]

In a word: NO.

That would make Sandy look like a cakewalk. Luckily...still a ways out.

[otowntiger]

The Australian ACCESS model is not something discussed much on this board but it has actually done quite well in the past I remember as far as track. It is similar to the ECMWF track it looks like with the system around the NE Lesser Antilles next Wed. Link if anybody is interested in looking. It shows a weaker system though:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

Yes, I recall it doing well with Matthew last year. Also, looking at the EPS colors.. the operational track is to the left of the highest probability shaded colors that keep Irma north of Hispainola and Cuba. But, the trend in the EURO and GFS has been west and south.

Although I do recall in latter stages it kept trying to push Matthew inland and was off by about a 100 miles or so.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

In a word: NO.

That would make Sandy look like a cakewalk. Luckily...still a ways out.

The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 part II on that run. Thank goodness it is still so far out.

[txwatcher91]

The Australian ACCESS model is not something discussed much on this board but it has actually done quite well in the past I remember as far as track. It is similar to the ECMWF track it looks like with the system around the NE Lesser Antilles next Wed. Link if anybody is interested in looking. It shows a weaker system though:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

Yes, I recall it doing well with Matthew last year. Also, looking at the EPS colors.. the operational track is to the left of the highest probability shaded colors that keep Irma north of Hispainola and Cuba. But, the trend in the EURO and GFS has been west and south.

Although I do recall in latter stages it kept trying to push Matthew inland and was off by about a 100 miles or so.

Unfortunately the GFS we have now is not the same as the one that handled Matthew so well. I really liked the GFS before the changes; now it seems to struggle with TC formation and track as well. It has consistently been showing this going WNW to NW in the short term whereas the reality is a W motion. The Euro has handled this much better, it may be a touch too far south but I think a blend of GFS/Euro with a heavy weight to the Euro gives us a good idea where this will go. Look for this to make it into the Bahamas IMO.

[Frank2]

The good news is the rapid strengthening aids in a recurve, per the current GFS...

[meriland29]

The good news is the rapid strengthening aids in a recurve, per the current GFS...

Not really true..

[SFLcane]

The good news is the rapid strengthening aids in a recurve, per the current GFS...

watch the trends the GFS has been slowly trending towards the ECMWF.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The good news is the rapid strengthening aids in a recurve, per the current GFS...

Sadly this is not always true (see Great New England Hurricane of 1938, Donna 1960, David 1979, Hugo 1989, exact).

[sma10]

The good news is the rapid strengthening aids in a recurve, per the current GFS...

GFS no longer recurving Frank, as of last run.

[floridasun78]

Nope, 06z GFS strengthens Irma to 896 millibars at least.

I do see 898, but only when close up on the system. Funny, the same map (MSLP & 10mph wind) shows different intensities depending on whether you look at it up close or not..

The Hi Res version is labeled Surface Pressure and 10m wind and is only available in some regions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2017083106&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=400

gfs don't take it islands look not same boat as other models

[txwatcher91]

The good news is the rapid strengthening aids in a recurve, per the current GFS...

In this case rapid strengthening should lead to more of a WSW motion like the Euro in the short term... and the 06z GFS wasn't a recurve but a hit on NC despite taking it sub 900mb. Chances are increasing for a CONUS impact, especially since the NHC has it heading right for the Herbert Box.

[sma10]

In a word: NO.

That would make Sandy look like a cakewalk. Luckily...still a ways out.

On 9/11, no less? Come on GFS ...