WPAC: NORU - Low

[euro6208]

EURO still peaks this as a powerful typhoon, 934 mb, and flirts with Japan as it tries to figure out where to go.

[euro6208]

The GFS continues to wipe out the Bonin Islands. Peaks it back down again to 891 mb.

[euro6208]

Interesting that HWRF doesn't even make this a Major.

[euro6208]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.07.2017



TYPHOON NORU ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 157.8E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 26.07.2017 27.9N 157.8E STRONG

12UTC 26.07.2017 29.8N 155.8E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.07.2017 30.8N 152.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.07.2017 30.7N 149.1E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.07.2017 30.1N 146.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.07.2017 29.1N 144.6E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.07.2017 28.0N 143.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.07.2017 26.9N 142.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.07.2017 26.0N 141.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.07.2017 25.1N 140.2E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.07.2017 24.7N 140.1E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.07.2017 24.7N 140.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.08.2017 25.0N 140.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 372 NM NORTH OF MINAMI
TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS STRENGTHENING BUT FRAGMENTED AND FLARING CONVECTION WITH
COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND NO CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 261652Z DMSP SSMI
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF DRY AIR ENTRAINING
INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), NOW EVIDENT IN THE INFRARED
IMAGERY DUE TO LACK OF CORE CONVECTION AND A DISTINCT LOW
REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 07W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSITIONING TO A HYBRID SYSTEM, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARBY
AND A THERMAL STRUCTURE MORE INDICATIVE OF A SUBTROPICAL STORM. THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BUT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE AT 26-27 DEG CELSIUS. TY 07W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY NORU WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER THIS POINT, THE SYSTEM
WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS STEERING TRANSITIONS TO A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEAR-TERM, REACHING A MINIMUM OF 50
KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE WEAKENING TREND IS DUE TO THE CONTINUED LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, COOLER SSTS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
INCREASING VWS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY
AS IT ENTERS AN AREA WITH LOWER VWS VALUES AND SSTS AND BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE, REESTABLISHING A WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY NORU WILL ENTER A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THREE COMPETING RIDGES TO THE
SOUTHEAST, SOUTHWEST AND NORTH, RESULTING IN A SLOW TURN SOUTHWARD
AND SIGNIFICANT SLOWING, BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 96. THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TY NORU BACK INTO A ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
INTENSIFICATION WITH HIGH MOISTURE, HIGH (29-30 DEG C) SSTS AND
LOWER VWS VALUES. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP A
POINT SOURCE OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96, ENABLING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
BEYOND TAU 72 DUE THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

I don't agree with JTWC's reasoning that Noru is transitioning to a hybrid type system. Sure the convection has been shallower than typically observed in the WPac, but it's at 30ºN and contending with dry air. These things happen.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/890433351424888832

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 443 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A TIGHTLY WOUND SPIRAL SYSTEM SHOWING IMPROVEMENT IN ITS CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND THE REFORMATION OF A 10 NM RAGGED EYE OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. A 270410Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
EASTERN SIDE WITH A SIGNIFICANT STREAM OF DRY AIR ENCIRCLING THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE OBSERVABLE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS) COUPLED WITH THE LESS
THAN IMPRESSIVE EYE STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. CURRENTLY
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH DRY AIR ENCIRCLING THE
SYSTEM AND SSTS NEAR 27 CELSIUS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH
AND A TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST IS RESTRICTING BOTH POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND
THERE IS AN ESTABLISHED EXHAUST ON THE EASTERN SIDE FEEDING INTO THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM 93W. CURRENTLY TY NORU IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY NORU WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS STEERING TRANSITIONS TO A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
EAST CHINA SEA AND JAPAN, WHICH WILL GUIDE THE SYSTEM TO A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DRY AIR AND COOLER SSTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE
SOUTHWEST TUTT CELL AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 65 KNOTS. FROM TAU 36 TO 72
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE TUTT CELL
REORIENTS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TRACK TAKES TY
NORU BACK INTO A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH WARMER (28 TO 29 C) SSTS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TY NORU WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD BUT SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLEX. THREE RIDGES WILL ORIENT AROUND TY
NORU FROM THE NORTH, WEST, AND SOUTHEAST, EACH EXERTING SOME
INFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL ONE OF THE RIDGES BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RESTRICTED ON
THE NORTHERN PORTION DUE TO THE RIDGE IN PLACE, BUT OTHERWISE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN AN AREA OF MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AFTER TAU 96 AND
ANOTHER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNCLEAR WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK BEYOND
TAU 96 WHILE IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[tolakram]

SLIDER Himawari-8 shortwave

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=himawari&sec=full_disk&x=12387&y=4709&z=4&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[euro6208]

EURO back on the Cat 5 peak, 925 mb, west of Iwo To. End of run has a possible Japan typhoon.

[euro6208]

GFS 902 mb peak.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM NORTHEAST OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND A
RAGGED, 13 NM WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 271401Z GPM 91 GHZ
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT AT THAT TIME, DEEP
CONVECTION WAS VERY LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT AND LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. SINCE THAT TIME, SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE SAME
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY
DRY AIR, REMAINING COCOONED IN A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 ON THE LOWER END OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 TO 80 KNOTS) DUE TO THE
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH DRY AIR ISOLATING THE SYSTEM
AND SSTS NEAR 27 TO 28 DEG CELSIUS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY COMPLEX WITH TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE FAR TO THE
NORTH COMBINING TO LIMIT OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, JTWC UPPER-LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM,
WHICH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH OUTFLOW TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AT TYPHOON
STRENGTH. AUTOMATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PRODUCTS INDICATE
HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VWS OVER THE SYSTEM, BUT THE SHEAR VECTOR IS IN
GENERAL ALIGNMENT WITH THE STORM MOTION, WITH RESULTANT RELATIVE
SHEAR ARGUES VALUES IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE (15-20 KNOTS).
CURRENTLY TY NORU IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
AND EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD, TURNING TY NORU ONTO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
EAST CHINA SEA. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS DRY AIR MODERATE VWS ARE OFFSET BY HIGHER SSTS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEMS MOISTENS AND TRACKS OVER EVER
INCREASING SSTS WHILE ALSO REESTABLISHING A POINT SOURCE OR
ANTICYCLONE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 BUT BIFURCATE BY TAU 48, WITH ECMWF,
AND THE ECMWF AND JGSM ENSEMBLES TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWEST,
WHILE GFS, NAVGEM, HWRF COAMPS-TC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TAKE THE
SYSTEM EASTWARD. WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND BIFURCATION AFTER
TAU 48, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TY NORU WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD BUT SLOW TO QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 72, AS THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLEX. THREE RIDGES WILL ORIENT
AROUND TY NORU FROM THE NORTH, WEST, AND SOUTHEAST, ENCAPSULATING
AND TRAPPING THE SYSTEM IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL ONE OF THE RIDGES
BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO AGAIN BECOME LIMITED AFTER TAU 96 AS THERE WILL BE NO
ROBUST OUTFLOW CHANNELS PRESENT DUE TO THE COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE SAME AREA FOR EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME, LEADING TO UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS, ALL OF WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AFTER TAU 72, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BIFURCATION LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Noru is still struggling with massive amounts of dry air, keeping the convection weak, shallow, and unorganized. The 00Z RJAO (Chichijima) sounding featured a rather dry profile above 850 mb, and this is the airmass that is circling Noru.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 163 NM NORTHEAST OF
CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
STRUGGLING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 280551Z 91GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON
THE LOWER END OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED FAIRLY ROBUST
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE. OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS TY
07W HAS TRACKED OVER INCREASINGLY WARMER SSTS NEAR 28 TO 29 CELSIUS.
TY NORU IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AND
SOUTHERN JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
AND EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD, TURNING TY NORU ONTO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK. THIS RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH
ABOUT TAU 42. AFTER THAT, TY NORU WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
ENTERS A WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 48, THE STR
TO THE WEST BECOMES ORIENTED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS, BLOCKING
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. AT THE SAME TIME AN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF TY NORU AND AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE RESULT OF THIS COMPLEX PATTERN IS THAT TY NORU BECOMES ENSCONCED
IN THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE PATTERN, DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH TAU 72. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS DRY AIR AND MODERATE VWS ARE OFFSET BY HIGHER SSTS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 24,
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER INCREASINGLY
WARM SSTS AND A POINT SOURCE DEVELOPS OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT SHOW
INCREASING SPREAD AFTERWARDS. WITH THE RELATIVELY LOW MODEL SPREAD
THROUGH THE FIRST 48-72 HOURS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF AMBIGUITY IN THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72, WHILE
THE VARIOUS RIDGES COMPETE TO BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING FEATURE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MIXED BEYOND TAU 72, HOWEVER MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKS SHOW THE SOUTHERN RIDGE DOMINATING IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, GUIDING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.
THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS KEEP THE SYSTEM QUASI-
STATIONARY. DUE TO THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK GUIDANCE IN THE LATER
TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Again down to 888 mb and now both models in agreement of a very powerful typhoon near Tokyo.

[1900hurricane]

I think Noru may have dropped below typhoon intensity, perhaps even considerably. A recent ASCAT pass only had wind magnitudes as high as 45 kt. Accounting for the ASCAT low bias that begins to develop about at this intensity, especially for smaller storms like Noru, I might place intensity at 50-55 kt.

[1900hurricane]

That said, I do think that the further south Noru is able to sag, the more believable the intense solutions are. So far the more conservative stances have won out over the intense solutions, and there are continued reasons to have reservations regarding intensity, but further south means warmer and more heat laden waters as well as a more moist tropical airmass.

Also, it may be worth mentioning that medium range guidance is beginning to show a Lionrock-esque NW hookback into Japan in response to a mid-latitude trough. It's a long way out still, but worth watching.

[wxmann_91]

That said, I do think that the further south Noru is able to sag, the more believable the intense solutions are. So far the more conservative stances have won out over the intense solutions, and there are continued reasons to have reservations regarding intensity, but further south means warmer and more heat laden waters as well as a more moist tropical airmass.

Also, it may be worth mentioning that medium range guidance is beginning to show a Lionrock-esque NW hookback into Japan in response to a mid-latitude trough. It's a long way out still, but worth watching.

For the more intense solutions to verify I'd imagine Noru has to start intensifying soon. In about 48-72 hr it's going to start meandering around and upwelling is going to become a huge problem, compounded by the global models indicating Noru's windfield will expand quite a bit around the same time. I'd say there's a good chance Noru's peaked already, especially given the not-so-impressive latest ASCAT data.